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| WILL KASHMIR ISSUE HAMPER INDIA’S PROGRESS | | | M.M.Munshi | 8/5/2011 12:16:44 AM |
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The relations between India and Pakistan have been bogged down over the Kashmir issue since the division of British India in 1947.Neither diplomatic negotiations nor three wars i.e 1947-48 , 1965 and 1999 have brought the two countries closer to any agreement. After the defeat of Pakistan in 1971 war which was not triggered by Kashmir but reluctance of West Pakistanis to accept a government lead by East Pakistanis (Bengalis).The war resulted in disembarkation of Pakistan , emergence of independent Bangla Desh and surrender of about 95,000 Pakistani army and paramilitary personal to Indian Army in a 12 days war. For about two decades after the humiliating defeat Pakistanis licked their wounds and offered only lip service to Kashmir issue . After realizing the superiority of Indian Armed Forces in conventional warfare the Pakistanis secretly initiated by fair and foul means work on manufacture of nuclear weapons with substantial help from the Republic of China . In order to forestall any opposition from democratic forces within the country to his autocratic rule General Zia Ul Haq the 2 nd Military Dictator of Pakistan transformed the moderate Islamic state of Pakistan into a fundamentalist one which encouraged the Mullas to rule the roost and dominate it’s politics. To show progress on Kashmir issue the so called unfinished agenda of the partition of British India , General Zia planned the proxy war in the Indian administrated state of Jammu & Kashmir which started immediately after his death..
Pakistan is mainly interested in complete control of three rivers namely Indus ,Jhelum and Chenab flowing through the state of Jammu and Kashmir. The Pakistanis have a fear that at some latter stage India may not scrap the Indus Water treaty and divert the waters of these rivers in full are part for its own use .Another factor that worries Pakistan about is that its North Western part including Islamabad is well within striking distance from western and south western borders of Jammu and Kashmir .Whenever there was a war Pakistanis fought with courage of despair in Chamb sector to forestall any major offensive by an Indian strike force into central Pakistan , Annexing the Muslim majority state of Jammu & Kashmir , in reality is of lesser importance than fears of diversion of river waters and a possible Indian attack.
Pakistan transformed the local uprising by Jammu & Kashmir Liberation Front[ which was also initially sponsored by Pakistan ) as its larges by involving Islamist terrorist organizations like Lashkar-e- Toiba and Jaish-e-Mohamad replacing the former(JKLF) completely.. The terrorist organizations lost popular support because of their harassing and terrorizing the locals by extortions, killings and at times rapping of the women folk. In due course of time the Indian police and security forces substantially contained the insurgency and Govt. of India also responded by holding three elections in the state in 1996,2002 and 2008 which independent observers and journalists reported as free and fair.
Immediately after the bus journey by then prime minister Atal Bihari Bajpayee from Amritsar to Wagah border and Lahore declaration In 1999 Pakistan sent regular troops in the garb of locals into Kargil area across the line of actual control and occupied remote but strategically important heights with the intention of disrupting moment of traffic on vital Srinagar Leh Highway and insulating Ladakh from the rest of the country. At first the BJP led Indian Govt. down played the incident. but soon afterwards to everybody’s surprise Indian Army vigorously counter attacked uphill across the sub vertical hill slopes and dislodged the Pakistani intruders . Moreover the International community including United States condemned the Pakistani aggression and strongly supported India. The Pakistanis were forced to withdraw by the vigorous Indian counter attack and political pressure from US President Bill Clinton.
In the recent past India’s economic growth ,diplomatic influence and overall prestige have considerably increased The new international profile of the country has added a different dimension to its on going confrontation with Pakistan over the Kashmir issue. It is unlikely that the two countries despite the repeated renewal of talks and peace process will reach a settlement in near future..Twice (1999 and 2001-2) the two countries were about to resort to use of nuclear weapons. India approximately administers about two thirds of the original State of Jammu & Kashmir while Pakistan holds most of the remainder. China grabbed the Aksai Chin plateau while India stuck to the out dated theory of British imperialists that no country would be interested in a bleak area like Aksai Chin. To appease China and for getting their support for Kashmir and other issues, Pakistan ceded the area of Raksam valley to the former in1963.
After the Pakistani sponsored blasts in on Diwali festival at Delhi and subsequent attacks on Indian Parliament in December 2001 both countries resumed talks but no tangible results were achieved except the cease fire along the Line of actual control , bus services between Srinagar and Muzafrabad and Punch (J&K) and Rawlakot(POK) and trade also across the LOC. Relations between the two countries were hardly normal when Pakistani sponsored militants of Jais-e-Mohamad struck Mumbai in 2008 taking the sea route and killed about 164 people including foreign nationals and wounding about 300 in Taj Palace Hotel, Oberai Trident Hotel, Nariman Bhawan and Chatarpati Shivaji terminus, Cama hospital and other places . When questioned about it Pakistan at first flatly refused to take the responsibility terrorist attack had originated from tits soil, latter due to international pressure however admitted that it was carried out by non state actors though India gave them enough evidence which proved otherwise. .Pakistanis with one pretext or other has avoided / refused to stop aiding the terrorist organizations and consider them as their allies against India.
More ever Pakistan Government is under pressure from the fundamentalist clergy , their allies in Parliament and its army to annex Kashmir by fair and foul means , accordingly Pakistani Government continues to aid the terrorist organizations. But what the Pakistani authorities whosoever they are fail to understand that India’s patience with Pakistani Sponsored terrorism in Kashmir or elsewhere in India is nearly at an end . It is now clear that that forbearance of the past on the part of Indian Government may not survive another Pakistani sponsored state or non state terrorist attack. To day the Indian army is well prepared to under take swift surgical and decisive action by retaliating against targets of its own choosing in Pakistan.
Neither the Kashmir dispute nor the insurgency had any significant effect on India’s rise to international prominence During 19 60s and 70s theorists of repute predicted that uncontrollable increase in population ,slow economic progress , Naxalite/ Moist movements, tensions along religious, caste and ethnic lines will result in India’s doom. But on the contrary India has exhibited a remarkable recovery except for a brief period of from June 1975 to March 1977 it has managed the crises without abandoning the path of democracy. India has achieved tremendous economic growth bid farewell to its policy of non alignment and improved its relations with western powers including United States. All these achievements have materialize in spite of the naxal problems in Central and Eastern India, occasional flares in North East and continued Pakistani sponsored terrorism in Kashmir and other parts of the country. There is least chance of India not being able to maintain its domestic stability and improve its economic growth even if Kashmir issue remains unresolved. Kashmir issue may not be immaterial to the peace and may remain a flash point for another Indo Pakistani conflict but it is not going to block India’s progress and its diplomatic relations with most nations of the world including a number of Islamic countries. It has become fashionable for world leaders to advise India that it should settle the Kashmir and other issues with Pakistan as early as possible which is well said than done. Scores of solutions have been suggested but hardly any one of these is politically feasible. An accord should balance needs of Justice and power for all residents of J&K state Muslims [both Sunni’s and Shias], Kashmiri Pandits, Dogras,Sikhs and Buddhists .Even a plebiscite would fail to address the needs of the states minorities Hardly any Shia, Dogra,Kashmiri Pandit , Buddhist or Sikh would like to join a Sunni dominated Independent State of Jammu and Kashmir. The sad and dismal plight of minorities in Pakistan ,Iraq , Bahrin , Afghanistan etc need not be repeated here. The ideal solution for Kashmir’s minorities would be to continue as part of multi ethnic multi religious multi lingual secular State of India where Muslim population exceeds that of Pakistan.. But that may not satisfy Pakistanis who want to integrate the state as a whole with Pakistan failing which they would prefer to see Kashmir as an independent Muslim dominated Kashmir friendly/sympathetic to itself. But that will not be acceptable not only to India but also China , the latter has made it clear that it won’t tolerate an Independent Kashmir. India has repeatedly made it clear that it will not agree to any territorial adjustments in Kashmir .India is facing a number of secessionists movements and is fully aware as to what effect an independent Kashmir will have .China has also opposed Independent Kashmir for the same reason as they are facing problems in Xinjiang and Tibet. Most of the ruling regimes of Pakistan have been in the past as well as today unrepresentative rather autocratic and dictatorial East Pakistan now Bangla Desh seceded from Pakistan as its Bengali population was ill treated The Baluchistan was and is being discriminated so are the Shias even in its Punjab province. Pakistan the most loud mouthed champions of Muslims of Indian administered Jammu and Kashmir state has exercised utter disregard for democratic practices and institutions under its own control in Jammu and Kashmir especially in the so called Northern areas comprising Gilgit agency and Baltistan area since 1947.It is a million dollar question how an independent Kashmir could function or survive.
Pakistan has very frequently relied on the assistance of foreign powers especially United States China and Islamic countries to boost its claim for Kashmir and despite its persistent efforts , it is not closer to dislodging India from Kashmir than it was in 1947-48 More specifically since the end of cold war most of the nations have lost interest in Pakistan’s drum beating about Kashmir As India’s trade expands its military might grows the world will care even less. Clinton categorically stated in 1999 that “borders cannot be redrawn in blood .Pakistan cannot continue its policy of limited cooperation with US against al Qaeda while sponsoring terrorism against India. The principal terrorist organizations operating in Kashmir neither command loyalty nor believe in democracy. No government in Delhi will grant any concession without an end to terrorist violence in Kashmir. Memories of Pakistan’s misdeeds against India in Kashmir and elsewhere being overlooked by US are fresh in the minds of Indian policy makers and still cast doubts on US friendship. The main cause of persistent authoritarian rule in Pakistan is mainly due to constant support financial or otherwise to autocratic regimes by the US in the name of expediency which practically destroyed the democratic fabric in the country and enabled the armed forces mainly the army to have an effective veto even when civilian regimes were at the helm of affairs. The economic defense and political disparities between India and Pakistan are significant, the size of Indian middle class has been estimated to be about 300 million and despite rising oil prices India has registered its heigh GDP growth . Pakistan’s economy despite by substantial expatriate remittances and US aid is much below that of India’s growth rate. India’s robust democratic institutions despite some drawbacks stand in marked contrast to that of Pakistan’s autocratic military rule even with its civilian façade. Pakistan’s policy makers mainly its military establishment have been keeping the pursuit of “a thousand cuts against India “. But their strategy has failed as India’s economic, military and political rise will sap its resolve or resources. The country’s growing prosperity will enable it to withstand the cost of sustaining and improving its defense equipment and training.
Finally Pakistan would have to move towards making the Line of control a permanent international border while allowing contact between communities across the divide failing which the confrontation between the two countries is otherwise also likely to end up not by war or negotiations but by Pakistan’s exhaustion
WILL KASHMIR ISSUE HAMPER INDIA’S PROGRESS
M.M.Munshi
The relations between India and Pakistan have been bogged down over the Kashmir issue since the division of British India in 1947.Neither diplomatic negotiations nor three wars i.e 1947-48 , 1965 and 1999 have brought the two countries closer to any agreement. After the defeat of Pakistan in 1971 war which was not triggered by Kashmir but reluctance of West Pakistanis to accept a government lead by East Pakistanis (Bengalis).The war resulted in disembarkation of Pakistan , emergence of independent Bangla Desh and surrender of about 95,000 Pakistani army and paramilitary personal to Indian Army in a 12 days war. For about two decades after the humiliating defeat Pakistanis licked their wounds and offered only lip service to Kashmir issue . After realizing the superiority of Indian Armed Forces in conventional warfare the Pakistanis secretly initiated by fair and foul means work on manufacture of nuclear weapons with substantial help from the Republic of China . In order to forestall any opposition from democratic forces within the country to his autocratic rule General Zia Ul Haq the 2 nd Military Dictator of Pakistan transformed the moderate Islamic state of Pakistan into a fundamentalist one which encouraged the Mullas to rule the roost and dominate it’s politics. To show progress on Kashmir issue the so called unfinished agenda of the partition of British India , General Zia planned the proxy war in the Indian administrated state of Jammu & Kashmir which started immediately after his death..
Pakistan is mainly interested in complete control of three rivers namely Indus ,Jhelum and Chenab flowing through the state of Jammu and Kashmir. The Pakistanis have a fear that at some latter stage India may not scrap the Indus Water treaty and divert the waters of these rivers in full are part for its own use .Another factor that worries Pakistan about is that its North Western part including Islamabad is well within striking distance from western and south western borders of Jammu and Kashmir .Whenever there was a war Pakistanis fought with courage of despair in Chamb sector to forestall any major offensive by an Indian strike force into central Pakistan , Annexing the Muslim majority state of Jammu & Kashmir , in reality is of lesser importance than fears of diversion of river waters and a possible Indian attack.
Pakistan transformed the local uprising by Jammu & Kashmir Liberation Front[ which was also initially sponsored by Pakistan ) as its larges by involving Islamist terrorist organizations like Lashkar-e- Toiba and Jaish-e-Mohamad replacing the former(JKLF) completely.. The terrorist organizations lost popular support because of their harassing and terrorizing the locals by extortions, killings and at times rapping of the women folk. In due course of time the Indian police and security forces substantially contained the insurgency and Govt. of India also responded by holding three elections in the state in 1996,2002 and 2008 which independent observers and journalists reported as free and fair.
Immediately after the bus journey by then prime minister Atal Bihari Bajpayee from Amritsar to Wagah border and Lahore declaration In 1999 Pakistan sent regular troops in the garb of locals into Kargil area across the line of actual control and occupied remote but strategically important heights with the intention of disrupting moment of traffic on vital Srinagar Leh Highway and insulating Ladakh from the rest of the country. At first the BJP led Indian Govt. down played the incident. but soon afterwards to everybody’s surprise Indian Army vigorously counter attacked uphill across the sub vertical hill slopes and dislodged the Pakistani intruders . Moreover the International community including United States condemned the Pakistani aggression and strongly supported India. The Pakistanis were forced to withdraw by the vigorous Indian counter attack and political pressure from US President Bill Clinton.
In the recent past India’s economic growth ,diplomatic influence and overall prestige have considerably increased The new international profile of the country has added a different dimension to its on going confrontation with Pakistan over the Kashmir issue. It is unlikely that the two countries despite the repeated renewal of talks and peace process will reach a settlement in near future..Twice (1999 and 2001-2) the two countries were about to resort to use of nuclear weapons. India approximately administers about two thirds of the original State of Jammu & Kashmir while Pakistan holds most of the remainder. China grabbed the Aksai Chin plateau while India stuck to the out dated theory of British imperialists that no country would be interested in a bleak area like Aksai Chin. To appease China and for getting their support for Kashmir and other issues, Pakistan ceded the area of Raksam valley to the former in1963.
After the Pakistani sponsored blasts in on Diwali festival at Delhi and subsequent attacks on Indian Parliament in December 2001 both countries resumed talks but no tangible results were achieved except the cease fire along the Line of actual control , bus services between Srinagar and Muzafrabad and Punch (J&K) and Rawlakot(POK) and trade also across the LOC. Relations between the two countries were hardly normal when Pakistani sponsored militants of Jais-e-Mohamad struck Mumbai in 2008 taking the sea route and killed about 164 people including foreign nationals and wounding about 300 in Taj Palace Hotel, Oberai Trident Hotel, Nariman Bhawan and Chatarpati Shivaji terminus, Cama hospital and other places . When questioned about it Pakistan at first flatly refused to take the responsibility terrorist attack had originated from tits soil, latter due to international pressure however admitted that it was carried out by non state actors though India gave them enough evidence which proved otherwise. .Pakistanis with one pretext or other has avoided / refused to stop aiding the terrorist organizations and consider them as their allies against India.
More ever Pakistan Government is under pressure from the fundamentalist clergy , their allies in Parliament and its army to annex Kashmir by fair and foul means , accordingly Pakistani Government continues to aid the terrorist organizations. But what the Pakistani authorities whosoever they are fail to understand that India’s patience with Pakistani Sponsored terrorism in Kashmir or elsewhere in India is nearly at an end . It is now clear that that forbearance of the past on the part of Indian Government may not survive another Pakistani sponsored state or non state terrorist attack. To day the Indian army is well prepared to under take swift surgical and decisive action by retaliating against targets of its own choosing in Pakistan.
Neither the Kashmir dispute nor the insurgency had any significant effect on India’s rise to international prominence During 19 60s and 70s theorists of repute predicted that uncontrollable increase in population ,slow economic progress , Naxalite/ Moist movements, tensions along religious, caste and ethnic lines will result in India’s doom. But on the contrary India has exhibited a remarkable recovery except for a brief period of from June 1975 to March 1977 it has managed the crises without abandoning the path of democracy. India has achieved tremendous economic growth bid farewell to its policy of non alignment and improved its relations with western powers including United States. All these achievements have materialize in spite of the naxal problems in Central and Eastern India, occasional flares in North East and continued Pakistani sponsored terrorism in Kashmir and other parts of the country. There is least chance of India not being able to maintain its domestic stability and improve its economic growth even if Kashmir issue remains unresolved. Kashmir issue may not be immaterial to the peace and may remain a flash point for another Indo Pakistani conflict but it is not going to block India’s progress and its diplomatic relations with most nations of the world including a number of Islamic countries. It has become fashionable for world leaders to advise India that it should settle the Kashmir and other issues with Pakistan as early as possible which is well said than done. Scores of solutions have been suggested but hardly any one of these is politically feasible. An accord should balance needs of Justice and power for all residents of J&K state Muslims [both Sunni’s and Shias], Kashmiri Pandits, Dogras,Sikhs and Buddhists .Even a plebiscite would fail to address the needs of the states minorities Hardly any Shia, Dogra,Kashmiri Pandit , Buddhist or Sikh would like to join a Sunni dominated Independent State of Jammu and Kashmir. The sad and dismal plight of minorities in Pakistan ,Iraq , Bahrin , Afghanistan etc need not be repeated here. The ideal solution for Kashmir’s minorities would be to continue as part of multi ethnic multi religious multi lingual secular State of India where Muslim population exceeds that of Pakistan.. But that may not satisfy Pakistanis who want to integrate the state as a whole with Pakistan failing which they would prefer to see Kashmir as an independent Muslim dominated Kashmir friendly/sympathetic to itself. But that will not be acceptable not only to India but also China , the latter has made it clear that it won’t tolerate an Independent Kashmir. India has repeatedly made it clear that it will not agree to any territorial adjustments in Kashmir .India is facing a number of secessionists movements and is fully aware as to what effect an independent Kashmir will have .China has also opposed Independent Kashmir for the same reason as they are facing problems in Xinjiang and Tibet. Most of the ruling regimes of Pakistan have been in the past as well as today unrepresentative rather autocratic and dictatorial East Pakistan now Bangla Desh seceded from Pakistan as its Bengali population was ill treated The Baluchistan was and is being discriminated so are the Shias even in its Punjab province. Pakistan the most loud mouthed champions of Muslims of Indian administered Jammu and Kashmir state has exercised utter disregard for democratic practices and institutions under its own control in Jammu and Kashmir especially in the so called Northern areas comprising Gilgit agency and Baltistan area since 1947.It is a million dollar question how an independent Kashmir could function or survive.
Pakistan has very frequently relied on the assistance of foreign powers especially United States China and Islamic countries to boost its claim for Kashmir and despite its persistent efforts , it is not closer to dislodging India from Kashmir than it was in 1947-48 More specifically since the end of cold war most of the nations have lost interest in Pakistan’s drum beating about Kashmir As India’s trade expands its military might grows the world will care even less. Clinton categorically stated in 1999 that “borders cannot be redrawn in blood .Pakistan cannot continue its policy of limited cooperation with US against al Qaeda while sponsoring terrorism against India. The principal terrorist organizations operating in Kashmir neither command loyalty nor believe in democracy. No government in Delhi will grant any concession without an end to terrorist violence in Kashmir. Memories of Pakistan’s misdeeds against India in Kashmir and elsewhere being overlooked by US are fresh in the minds of Indian policy makers and still cast doubts on US friendship. The main cause of persistent authoritarian rule in Pakistan is mainly due to constant support financial or otherwise to autocratic regimes by the US in the name of expediency which practically destroyed the democratic fabric in the country and enabled the armed forces mainly the army to have an effective veto even when civilian regimes were at the helm of affairs. The economic defense and political disparities between India and Pakistan are significant, the size of Indian middle class has been estimated to be about 300 million and despite rising oil prices India has registered its heigh GDP growth . Pakistan’s economy despite by substantial expatriate remittances and US aid is much below that of India’s growth rate. India’s robust democratic institutions despite some drawbacks stand in marked contrast to that of Pakistan’s autocratic military rule even with its civilian façade. Pakistan’s policy makers mainly its military establishment have been keeping the pursuit of “a thousand cuts against India “. But their strategy has failed as India’s economic, military and political rise will sap its resolve or resources. The country’s growing prosperity will enable it to withstand the cost of sustaining and improving its defense equipment and training.
Finally Pakistan would have to move towards making the Line of control a permanent international border while allowing contact between communities across the divide failing which the confrontation between the two countries is otherwise also likely to end up not by war or negotiations but by Pakistan’s exhaustion
WILL KASHMIR ISSUE HAMPER INDIA’S PROGRESS
M.M.Munshi
The relations between India and Pakistan have been bogged down over the Kashmir issue since the division of British India in 1947.Neither diplomatic negotiations nor three wars i.e 1947-48 , 1965 and 1999 have brought the two countries closer to any agreement. After the defeat of Pakistan in 1971 war which was not triggered by Kashmir but reluctance of West Pakistanis to accept a government lead by East Pakistanis (Bengalis).The war resulted in disembarkation of Pakistan , emergence of independent Bangla Desh and surrender of about 95,000 Pakistani army and paramilitary personal to Indian Army in a 12 days war. For about two decades after the humiliating defeat Pakistanis licked their wounds and offered only lip service to Kashmir issue . After realizing the superiority of Indian Armed Forces in conventional warfare the Pakistanis secretly initiated by fair and foul means work on manufacture of nuclear weapons with substantial help from the Republic of China . In order to forestall any opposition from democratic forces within the country to his autocratic rule General Zia Ul Haq the 2 nd Military Dictator of Pakistan transformed the moderate Islamic state of Pakistan into a fundamentalist one which encouraged the Mullas to rule the roost and dominate it’s politics. To show progress on Kashmir issue the so called unfinished agenda of the partition of British India , General Zia planned the proxy war in the Indian administrated state of Jammu & Kashmir which started immediately after his death..
Pakistan is mainly interested in complete control of three rivers namely Indus ,Jhelum and Chenab flowing through the state of Jammu and Kashmir. The Pakistanis have a fear that at some latter stage India may not scrap the Indus Water treaty and divert the waters of these rivers in full are part for its own use .Another factor that worries Pakistan about is that its North Western part including Islamabad is well within striking distance from western and south western borders of Jammu and Kashmir .Whenever there was a war Pakistanis fought with courage of despair in Chamb sector to forestall any major offensive by an Indian strike force into central Pakistan , Annexing the Muslim majority state of Jammu & Kashmir , in reality is of lesser importance than fears of diversion of river waters and a possible Indian attack.
Pakistan transformed the local uprising by Jammu & Kashmir Liberation Front[ which was also initially sponsored by Pakistan ) as its larges by involving Islamist terrorist organizations like Lashkar-e- Toiba and Jaish-e-Mohamad replacing the former(JKLF) completely.. The terrorist organizations lost popular support because of their harassing and terrorizing the locals by extortions, killings and at times rapping of the women folk. In due course of time the Indian police and security forces substantially contained the insurgency and Govt. of India also responded by holding three elections in the state in 1996,2002 and 2008 which independent observers and journalists reported as free and fair.
Immediately after the bus journey by then prime minister Atal Bihari Bajpayee from Amritsar to Wagah border and Lahore declaration In 1999 Pakistan sent regular troops in the garb of locals into Kargil area across the line of actual control and occupied remote but strategically important heights with the intention of disrupting moment of traffic on vital Srinagar Leh Highway and insulating Ladakh from the rest of the country. At first the BJP led Indian Govt. down played the incident. but soon afterwards to everybody’s surprise Indian Army vigorously counter attacked uphill across the sub vertical hill slopes and dislodged the Pakistani intruders . Moreover the International community including United States condemned the Pakistani aggression and strongly supported India. The Pakistanis were forced to withdraw by the vigorous Indian counter attack and political pressure from US President Bill Clinton.
In the recent past India’s economic growth ,diplomatic influence and overall prestige have considerably increased The new international profile of the country has added a different dimension to its on going confrontation with Pakistan over the Kashmir issue. It is unlikely that the two countries despite the repeated renewal of talks and peace process will reach a settlement in near future..Twice (1999 and 2001-2) the two countries were about to resort to use of nuclear weapons. India approximately administers about two thirds of the original State of Jammu & Kashmir while Pakistan holds most of the remainder. China grabbed the Aksai Chin plateau while India stuck to the out dated theory of British imperialists that no country would be interested in a bleak area like Aksai Chin. To appease China and for getting their support for Kashmir and other issues, Pakistan ceded the area of Raksam valley to the former in1963.
After the Pakistani sponsored blasts in on Diwali festival at Delhi and subsequent attacks on Indian Parliament in December 2001 both countries resumed talks but no tangible results were achieved except the cease fire along the Line of actual control , bus services between Srinagar and Muzafrabad and Punch (J&K) and Rawlakot(POK) and trade also across the LOC. Relations between the two countries were hardly normal when Pakistani sponsored militants of Jais-e-Mohamad struck Mumbai in 2008 taking the sea route and killed about 164 people including foreign nationals and wounding about 300 in Taj Palace Hotel, Oberai Trident Hotel, Nariman Bhawan and Chatarpati Shivaji terminus, Cama hospital and other places . When questioned about it Pakistan at first flatly refused to take the responsibility terrorist attack had originated from tits soil, latter due to international pressure however admitted that it was carried out by non state actors though India gave them enough evidence which proved otherwise. .Pakistanis with one pretext or other has avoided / refused to stop aiding the terrorist organizations and consider them as their allies against India.
More ever Pakistan Government is under pressure from the fundamentalist clergy , their allies in Parliament and its army to annex Kashmir by fair and foul means , accordingly Pakistani Government continues to aid the terrorist organizations. But what the Pakistani authorities whosoever they are fail to understand that India’s patience with Pakistani Sponsored terrorism in Kashmir or elsewhere in India is nearly at an end . It is now clear that that forbearance of the past on the part of Indian Government may not survive another Pakistani sponsored state or non state terrorist attack. To day the Indian army is well prepared to under take swift surgical and decisive action by retaliating against targets of its own choosing in Pakistan.
Neither the Kashmir dispute nor the insurgency had any significant effect on India’s rise to international prominence During 19 60s and 70s theorists of repute predicted that uncontrollable increase in population ,slow economic progress , Naxalite/ Moist movements, tensions along religious, caste and ethnic lines will result in India’s doom. But on the contrary India has exhibited a remarkable recovery except for a brief period of from June 1975 to March 1977 it has managed the crises without abandoning the path of democracy. India has achieved tremendous economic growth bid farewell to its policy of non alignment and improved its relations with western powers including United States. All these achievements have materialize in spite of the naxal problems in Central and Eastern India, occasional flares in North East and continued Pakistani sponsored terrorism in Kashmir and other parts of the country. There is least chance of India not being able to maintain its domestic stability and improve its economic growth even if Kashmir issue remains unresolved. Kashmir issue may not be immaterial to the peace and may remain a flash point for another Indo Pakistani conflict but it is not going to block India’s progress and its diplomatic relations with most nations of the world including a number of Islamic countries. It has become fashionable for world leaders to advise India that it should settle the Kashmir and other issues with Pakistan as early as possible which is well said than done. Scores of solutions have been suggested but hardly any one of these is politically feasible. An accord should balance needs of Justice and power for all residents of J&K state Muslims [both Sunni’s and Shias], Kashmiri Pandits, Dogras,Sikhs and Buddhists .Even a plebiscite would fail to address the needs of the states minorities Hardly any Shia, Dogra,Kashmiri Pandit , Buddhist or Sikh would like to join a Sunni dominated Independent State of Jammu and Kashmir. The sad and dismal plight of minorities in Pakistan ,Iraq , Bahrin , Afghanistan etc need not be repeated here. The ideal solution for Kashmir’s minorities would be to continue as part of multi ethnic multi religious multi lingual secular State of India where Muslim population exceeds that of Pakistan.. But that may not satisfy Pakistanis who want to integrate the state as a whole with Pakistan failing which they would prefer to see Kashmir as an independent Muslim dominated Kashmir friendly/sympathetic to itself. But that will not be acceptable not only to India but also China , the latter has made it clear that it won’t tolerate an Independent Kashmir. India has repeatedly made it clear that it will not agree to any territorial adjustments in Kashmir .India is facing a number of secessionists movements and is fully aware as to what effect an independent Kashmir will have .China has also opposed Independent Kashmir for the same reason as they are facing problems in Xinjiang and Tibet. Most of the ruling regimes of Pakistan have been in the past as well as today unrepresentative rather autocratic and dictatorial East Pakistan now Bangla Desh seceded from Pakistan as its Bengali population was ill treated The Baluchistan was and is being discriminated so are the Shias even in its Punjab province. Pakistan the most loud mouthed champions of Muslims of Indian administered Jammu and Kashmir state has exercised utter disregard for democratic practices and institutions under its own control in Jammu and Kashmir especially in the so called Northern areas comprising Gilgit agency and Baltistan area since 1947.It is a million dollar question how an independent Kashmir could function or survive.
Pakistan has very frequently relied on the assistance of foreign powers especially United States China and Islamic countries to boost its claim for Kashmir and despite its persistent efforts , it is not closer to dislodging India from Kashmir than it was in 1947-48 More specifically since the end of cold war most of the nations have lost interest in Pakistan’s drum beating about Kashmir As India’s trade expands its military might grows the world will care even less. Clinton categorically stated in 1999 that “borders cannot be redrawn in blood .Pakistan cannot continue its policy of limited cooperation with US against al Qaeda while sponsoring terrorism against India. The principal terrorist organizations operating in Kashmir neither command loyalty nor believe in democracy. No government in Delhi will grant any concession without an end to terrorist violence in Kashmir. Memories of Pakistan’s misdeeds against India in Kashmir and elsewhere being overlooked by US are fresh in the minds of Indian policy makers and still cast doubts on US friendship. The main cause of persistent authoritarian rule in Pakistan is mainly due to constant support financial or otherwise to autocratic regimes by the US in the name of expediency which practically destroyed the democratic fabric in the country and enabled the armed forces mainly the army to have an effective veto even when civilian regimes were at the helm of affairs. The economic defense and political disparities between India and Pakistan are significant, the size of Indian middle class has been estimated to be about 300 million and despite rising oil prices India has registered its heigh GDP growth . Pakistan’s economy despite by substantial expatriate remittances and US aid is much below that of India’s growth rate. India’s robust democratic institutions despite some drawbacks stand in marked contrast to that of Pakistan’s autocratic military rule even with its civilian façade. Pakistan’s policy makers mainly its military establishment have been keeping the pursuit of “a thousand cuts against India “. But their strategy has failed as India’s economic, military and political rise will sap its resolve or resources. The country’s growing prosperity will enable it to withstand the cost of sustaining and improving its defense equipment and training.
Finally Pakistan would have to move towards making the Line of control a permanent international border while allowing contact between communities across the divide failing which the confrontation between the two countries is otherwise also likely to end up not by war or negotiations but by Pakistan’s exhaustion
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