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| Another Hosni Mubarak in the making? | | Musharraf is a hard nut to crack | |
B L KAK
NEW DELHI DEC 4
The Musharraf camp and the anti-Musharraf camp have of late become quite visible on Pakistan's politcal. According to a study by a set of Pakistan-watchers, the Musharraf camp has an edge over the opposition camp. No wonder, then, MMA chief Qazi Hussain Ahmed's aborted march from Lahore to Gujrat on November 30 reflects his growing frustration over ineptness and inability of political forces in Pakistan to act beyond rhetoric.
Both Qazi and Imran Khan are convinced that unless the opposition unites at this point of time and offers a credible resistance to President, Gen. Parvez Musharraf, Pakistan is going to see another Hosni Mubarak in the making with no end in sight to the Musharraf-led military dominance in the foreseeable future. They have a valid point. Gen. Musharraf will complete his eighth year in power in October 2007 when, under the Constitution, his term expires.
Hitherto, he has not bothered to abide by any rule in the book to keep him in office without going through any recognised process of election. For this purpose he used supra-constitutional devices like the referendum which he hoped would be endorsed by the new parliament. But unexpectedly the polls threw up a hung parliament. The plans were changed and the President hastened to take oath of his office on November 16, only two hours before the National Assembly was supposed to be installed after swearing-in the newly elected members.
The unprecedented move has created a permanent anomaly in the state structure. The original 1973 Constitution had envisioned the President to be elected by an electoral college comprising the National Assembly and the Senate (Gen. Zia extended it in 1985 to include provincial Assemblies as well). The Constitution provides for a different set of schedule for election of the President and the Assembly. The President must be elected prior to the expiry of his term (not earlier than 60 days and not later than 30 days before that event). Contrary to that, the Assemblies are to be elected after the expiry of their five-year term.
The installation of the President prior to the formal inauguration of the Assemblies and the Senate means that for all times to come, he will have to be elected by the outgoing Assembly just while it is completing its five-year term (unless it is dissolved either under Article 52-B by the President or when the Prime Minister advises him to do so.). The ethical justification for the Assembly to put a person in that office for five years, when its own mandate is over, is questionable to say the least.
This peculiarity of the existing scheme of things offers an unexpected opportunity to the Gen. Musharraf. He is guaranteed a majority in the present Assemblies for a facile re-election to another five-year term till 2013. He will oversee the next general elections as President and, more significantly, in uniform as Chief of the Army Staff. In utter disregard of the non-political and neutral nature of both offices, he has felt no qualms in asking the people to vote for his supporters. This message is directed to the civil and military functionaries than the voters to ensure a desired outcome of the polls.
Prior to elections the Constitution provides for a caretaker government for three months (to be appointed by the President) while the opposition wants the entire government machinery to be placed at the disposal of an independent election commission during this period. But these safeguards are not going to make much difference. The loyalty and vested interests of the civil and military institutions will inexorably be intertwined with the man who is to be at the helm of affairs for next five years than these transitory arrangements. |
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