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| Collapse of the US-Pakistan relationship is irreversible | | | Karan Bandesha | 9/20/2011 9:23:40 PM |
| The cascading violence in Pakistan which, on a daily basis, leads to the death of more than 30 people due to suicide bombing and the like is the least of Pakistan's problem. What is touching a raw nerve is the crumbling relations with its allies, especially the US, who provide to it life support treatment. The US is fast getting tired of the incessant tune of "the biggest victim of terror" being played by Pakistan. It is believed that the US has told the Pakistan Army Chief quite bluntly that he has to come down on terrorism of all forms that is breeding on the soil of Pakistan with special emphasis on the dismantling of the Haqqani network which has, by now, become an impediment in the US efforts towards leaving Afghanistan. There is a catch here since Pakistan's ISI has long been maintaining ties with the Haqqani network, cultivated during the 1980s, when Jalaluddin Haqqani was a feared battlefield commander against the Soviet forces. Based in Pakistan's North Waziristan, Haqqani refrains from attacking the Pakistani state. Islamabad thus sees him as a lever to maintain influence in any future settlement in Afghanistan.
The Pakistan Army is giving a patient hearing to all such admonitions by US but, in reality, it cannot do much against the Frankenstein monsters that are its own creation. It is the ISI which is responsible for proliferation of Jihadi fundamentalism in Pakistan and it is this fundamentalism that has become an abiding headache over there. Add to this the radicalised element within the Pakistan army which is not ready to forego its "strategic assets" under any circumstances and we have a cocktail of deceit and double speak which is leaving the US flabbergasted. None other than Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the US military's Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, has accused Haqqani militants of openly attacking US forces, yet Pakistan is not willing to relent. The US has reached a point where it is thinking of 'going it alone' in its war on terror, leaving the support of its erstwhile trusted partner.
Pakistan is also maintaining its own list of woes. The chief amongst these is the growing cozy relationship between India and the US which is anathema for Pakistan. The Americans, in a well calculated step to appease India, arrested the Director of the Kashmir American Council, Dr Ghulam Nabi Fai. Fai was regularly receiving millions of rupees from the ISI and was using this money to incite American Congressmen against India on Kashmir issue. Expectedly, while New Delhi was overwhelmed, Islamabad's response was aggressive. Further, in Pakistan's view, President Obama's visit to India, reinforced by Hillary Clinton's follow up rhetoric, propped up New Delhi so much that it started nursing ambitions of a permanent United Nations Security Council seat. This is simply not acceptable to Pakistan. The leaderships in Islamabad and Washington differ considerably on issues of vital interest to Pakistan; nuclear policy, energy acquisition from Iran and China, end game in Afghanistan, and the Kashmir dispute, are some major areas of divergence. There are other issues that are emerging as a bone of contention and further increasing the divide. The arrest of Shakil Afridi, the Pakistani doctor who helped the CIA identify Osama bin Laden's compound; the murder of journalist Saleem Shahzad, publicly attributed by US officials to the ISI; Pakis-tan's expulsion of US military trainers; and haggling over the $ 800 million recently suspended US military aid formed part of the animating discussions between the representatives of the two countries are the main amongst these. A stage has come when Pakistan's Ambassador to the US, in an open show of defiance, has recently quipped, "The most hated country in Pakistan is our top trading partner, top aid donor, top weapon supplier and top remittance source".
Now the question is -will the US succeed pressurising Pakistan to check such activities? It seems to be highly unlikely because the Government which is responsible for governance has no control over the army and the army is maintaining its own agenda which goes beyond appeasement of the US. The army is quite convinced that even if the Pakistan-US relationship breaks the dole being given by the latter country to keep Pakistan afloat will not cease, because the US is well aware of others like China waiting in the wings to take over its affairs. Hence the army pays lip service to addressing points of contention but does not bring about any credible changes in its policy. What can be the possible outcome of these pretensions? Possibly the divide will increase, drone strikes will continue and unilateral action by the US forces will become the norm for fear of shared intelligence leaking to militants, local tribal leaders and jihadists through the ISI.
These are some reasons to believe that Pakistan may be miscalculating the US strategy. The US has decided to exit from Afghanistan and once its footprints have lessened so will its dependence on Pakistan. It will probably not look back towards its erstwhile ally and Pakistan will be left isolated. US-Pakistan relationship is heading towards a virtual collapse and the Sub continent has to brace itself towards coming to terms with this reality. What is frightening is the reaction of a fundamentalist, nuclear Pakistan to an adversity of this nature. India is likely to bear maximum brunt of this détente in terms of proliferation of terror and the nuclear risk. It would do the country well to work out its options in a scenario of a totally destabilized Pakistan. |
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