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| NC on weak wicket, cannot afford sitting out of power | | After Omar Abdullah's 34 month in power! | | Syed Junaid Hashmi
JAMMU, Oct 28: Contrary to popular perception of National Conference (NC) withdrawing support if New Delhi decides to replace Omar Abdullah, the party leading the coalition presently has no option but to continue in power.
Old guards of National Conference (NC) which includes former Chief Minister Dr. Farooq Abdullah may threaten of withdrawing support but are unlikely to do so, owing to presence of credible, vociferous and vocal opposition, Peoples Democratic Party which has footprints across the state. PDP is major regional threat to NC in Kashmir valley. Elsewhere, Congress has already uprooted NC's base.
Barring few pockets of support in the outskirts of Jammu district especially in Rajouri and Poonch districts, National Conference (NC) has been almost wiped out by PDP and Congress. Despite being embroiled in cash-for-vote scam, BJP has sizeable vote bank in Hindu dominated areas of Jammu region. This vote may not win them seats but would be sufficient to ensure victory of Congress candidates in near future.
Old guards of NC do accept that party has lost considerable vote bank in Jammu region to Congress and PDP. They do not waver in saying that had former Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad fielded Ghulam Haider Sheikh from Kishtwar constituency, Kitchloo would not have won. Presently, of 37 assembly constituencies in Jammu region, NC represents six viz. Kishtwar, Gulabgarh, Vijaypur, Nowshera, Kalakote and Poonch-Haveli.
Of the remaining 21; 11 are with BJP, 8 with Congress and two with independents. Political observers assert that major chunk of seats won by BJP were because of the Amarnath Land row and had the votes not got polarized, picture would have been different. Presently, NC-Congress combine has 44 seats and with the support CPI (M), JKDPN, PDF and two independents, it is 49 member coalition government.
Incase, Congress decides of having its own Chief Minister and NC withdraws support to the coalition, PDP with 21 MLAs is in all likelihood expected to offer outside support to Congress led coalition. If this is the case, then Mohammed Yousuf Tarigami, Ghulam Hassan Mir and Mohammed Yousuf Tarigami alongwith Ashwani Kumar, Charanjit Singh and Tsetan Namgyal are likely to join this congress led coalition.
With these six leaders, Congress with the outside support of PDP would be able to achieve the magic figure of 44. Pointing towards another scenario, political observers state that incase, the expulsion issue of six BJP MLAs gets settled and consequent to this, fresh elections are held and Congress wins three to four seats, there would be significant swing in the behavior of Congress.
National Conference (NC) leadership is well-aware of all these mathematical calculations. The stalwarts do know that unlike the past; emotions, good speeches and statements would not be able to attract voters across the state. They have option of PDP available with them.
A political commentator said that Chief Minister Omar Abdullah's arrogant attitude has impacted the party badly and it is because of this and many other reasons, directly or indirectly related to young head of the state that PDP is gaining ground with each passing day across the state especially in Muslim dominated constituencies.
With NC vote bank shrinking, this commentator said that it would be catastrophic if they withdraw support over the issue of rotational Chief Ministership. "This would be suicidal; given the fact that valley is yet to recover from the bloodbath of the years 2009 and 2010 respectively. NC has no option but to continue being in power and support congress even if they have to let go office of CM. Omar is young and honest. UPA would give him suitable space in the centre," cautioned a political commentator.
He went on and recalled "Omar could not control his administrative heads from harassing business families of Jammu. His administration tried to gag media, called Journalists 'blackmailers' while speaking in a function at Jammu and even damaged business outlets of several business houses of Jammu. His 34 months have seen brute use of force, harassment, intimidation, arrogance and mysterious killings."
Omar despite being regarded as honest, sincere, straightforward and innovative may not buy this but NC leadership realizes this. It is this realization which should prevent NC from withdrawing support to Congress in case there is rotation of Chief Minister, asserted another top political commentator. He elaborated and remarked "The only reason which could prevent change of guard is "Putramoh" of Congress President Sonia Gandhi."
A congress leader in New Delhi while talking to Early Times said "We also have no compelling reasons to continue with National Conference (NC). They have been ridiculing all, be it a political party or a revered institution. Indian army is country's grace and no one has any right to derogate this institution." He maintained that Mufti Mohammed Sayeed has remained an ally of Congress and is still a good friend. |
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