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| Omar Abdullah: Kashmir's Don Quixote | | | Atul Razdan | 11/11/2011 11:55:22 PM |
| Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) Chief Minister Omar Abdullah has done it again. Speaking at the Police Commemoration Day function at Zewan, near Srinagar, on October 21, 2011, he effortlessly put his foot in his mouth once more, this time by insisting that it is time that the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA), promulgated in his state since 1990 and the earlier Disturbed Areas Act (DAA), were to be revoked from some areas of the state "within the next few days".
Omar Abdullah's statement carried its own insurance policy: the Chief Minister added that he was not in a position to name the areas where he proposed to recommend such action be taken, that the 'revocation'of the AFSPA and DAA would put an added responsibility on the shoulders of the state police (which has been singularly ineffective in controlling militancy so far) and the paramilitary forces. He then added the somewhat abstruse qualifier that he wanted to ensure the revocation of the laws would not have any "adverse effects". Later, these areas were independently identified as Budgam, Gandarbal and Srinagar (minus the cantonment areas) in the valley and Jammu, Samba and Kathua in the Jammu sector.
Was the Chief Minister thus ensuring a good 'exit' strategy for himself? If he was seeking time to ensure proper law and order in the proposed areas, his qualifier of the revocation coming "within a few days" was not appropriate, since the prolonged unrest in the valley could hardly be controlled in a few days. Or was he, like other coalition partners of the UPA, just reflecting demands which would bring him popularity from a certain section of the electorate in his home state and ensure that his name figured in the media, whatever the reason? Our worthy Chief Minister was thus the perfect example of a person who knew what he wanted, but did not know what it was. Or would he, if one puts it figuratively, like to throw out the baby with the bathwater?
It is regrettable that a section of the Kashmir politicians chose to blame the Army for a grenade attack by militants in Srinagar soon after Omar's statement, claiming the incident was the army's effort to underline the necessity for continuation of the act. The charge of the politicians is contemptible; such mendacious pusillanimity, with which the politicians seem entirely familiar, is not the forte of the armed forces. Even a cursory examination of the reasons why the AFSPA was promulgated in the valley would show that the sudden whim of Omar Abdullah, to revoke this Act, was premature and unnecessary. The state security forces are totally incapable of tackling the militants, both foreign and what Pakistan claims are 'indigenous' to India (one is supposed to quite overlook the fact that these elements have been trained, motivated and armed in many cases with weaponry and equipment superior to that of the state police), by Islamabad. It is obvious even to the dilettante that the scale of unrest and instability in the valley is too wide and large for the state police to handle. The presence of the Army to handle the militants is therefore essential. Secondly, the local administration and the state police are occupied with tasks other than tackling 'local issues' effectively; the state level politicians are fully occupied with attempting to pull the rug from under each others' feet and the state police fully occupied with routine policing tasks. Fighting of trained militants is the task of specialist forces and the army is best equipped to tackle this task. There is also every reason to believe that if, at the present stage, the Army is withdrawn from the valley, the situation will once again degenerate into disorder.
The continued presence if the Army is, therefore, essential in the valley. It is regrettable that organisations like the United Nations Human Rights Commission (UNHRC), Human Rights Watch (HRW), vocal in offering sympathy for people they have never really interacted with; do not care to go to the roots of the problem that exists in the valley. While such organisations are quick to express concern about possible misuse of the provisions of the Act, they often do not care to worry about the human rights of the people who were terrorised and hounded out of their homes in the valley. Such organisations would do well to carry out an in depth study of the systematic violation of human rights on the original residents of the valley by militants, instead of worrying about the so called 'misuse' of AFSPA. Incidentally, it may be mentioned that the Central Government does take action to check and punish abuse of the powers conferred by the act.
Whatever the reasons for Omar Abdullah's statement, the most charitable view that can be taken is that he genuinely believes that the time is ripe in the valley for change and for the Centre to take confidence building measures in the state, there is no denying that his inopportune remarks were a total surprise to the Centre and to his regional ally, the Jammu and Kashmir Congress Party. Regional party president Saifuddin Soz insisted that Omar had omitted consulting him before making such a contentious statement.
The Central Government acted with remarkable decisiveness and promptitude to Omar's statement. A PMO spokesman stated that all parties to the issue, including the armed forces and the ministries of Defence and Home Affairs had to be on board to take the decision to repeal the AFSPA, the promulgation of which was due to the Centre's legislation and therefore could not be repealed arbitrarily by the Srate. A high-powered team from the Centre, headed by Cabinet Secretary Ajit Kumar Seth visited the valley on Octobers 23 to examine the issue and submitted a report to the Prime Minister, recommending that the repeal of the AFSPA was not as important as improving governance and development of the state and that the former issue be put on the back burner for the time being. This report is a none too subtle hauling up of the J&K Government, since it highlighted the need of better governance in the State and for closer monitoring of development projects in the state, many of them supported by the Central Government, where there have been considerable cost overruns. But then cost overruns and poorly 'supervised' (if indeed the term may be used) are the norm in the state. The Army and the Ministries of Defence and Home are vehemently opposed to the suggestion of Chief Minister Abdullah. It is argued, with some validity, that the improvement of the situation in Srinagar and the surrounding areas is due to the imposition of the APSPA and the hard work done by the Army to combat militancy in the region. Lifting of this act from the valley at this stage would be counterproductive, serving only to allow militant elements safe havens in which the AFSPA was relaxed from areas where it was still in force. It is argued by the Army and the MoD with some validity that the precedent set in Manipur, where the AFSPA was repealed in 2004, showed the law and order situation in the seven assembly segments of Imphal has since actually worsened: militants had committed acts of violence elsewhere in the state and then sought refuge in Imphal.
The security establishment is similarly unimpressed with Omar Abdullah's call for a change in the status quo in Kashmir. It is rightfully felt that the gains achieved by the Army in ensuring peace in sections of the valley, something for which the former has paid heavily in terms of casualties, would be totally reversed if AFSPA is lifted at the present stage. There is little doubt that Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), notwithstanding the Most Favoured Nation status granted to India by that country, would take immediate advantage of any such unwarranted relaxation, to undermine the security of India. After all, by its own admission, the Pakistan Government (if it is to be believed) remains blissfully unaware of what its intelligence arm is doing. The ISI, in turn, remains unaware of what it is doing itself, as is brought out by the prolonged stay of Osama bin Laden at an ISI safe house in Abbottabad. The 'atmosphere of trust' so magnanimously pushed by India now is best tempered with abundant caution: Pakistan has won no plaudits so far when India has trusted that country. One shudders to think of the chaos the ISI would spread in the valley if the AFSPA is lifted, as per the wishes of Omar Abdullah.
The army, the central government, its intelligence agencies, the Kashmir interlocutors and the national Press have all indicated that the time is not opportune to lift the AFSPA from even selected portions of Kashmir. The army feel lifting of the act will hinder their ability to operate promptly and effectively. Omar Abdullah, the modern day Don Quixote, however continues to tilt at his own windmills and bash on regardless. He has recently, at a meeting of the United Headquarters, made a strong pitch directly to top Army commanders for repealing the act, on the grounds that the Army had not been operationally active in these areas 'for years'. He has also attempted to coerce the Army by insisting that their view on the continuation of the AFSPA throughput Kashmir is not an option available to them. Of course, the CM will be the first person to appeal for help from the army if and when the situation in these areas deteriorates consequent to the withdrawal of the AFSPA.-WordSword Features
Written by Atul Razdan, a retired officer of the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency. Mr. Razdan is also a former journalist, who worked for the Hindustan Times. The views expressed in the article are his own. |
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