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Sustainable peace is the core issue in Kashmir
Karan Bandesha11/25/2011 11:46:27 PM
It seems that the centre has been successful in
curbing, for the moment, Omar Abdullah's enthusiasm to revoke the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) from some parts of the State. It is, of course, a different matter that some members of his own party like his uncle, Mustafa Kamal, are not relenting from speaking against this decision, in contravention to the coalition Dharma. This is because the subject provides to fringe politicians an apt platform to resurrect their waning political relevance. Be that as it may, good sense has prevailed upon Omar because the argument put forth by the centre held merit. It cannot be denied that dealing with a sensitive issue like AFSPA would need patient deliberation and above all consensus amongst the stake holders, especially so, the Army. There is, of course, some merit in Omar's contention that with the internal security scenario in the State changing for the better, there is a need to revisit the applicability of some restrictive laws that had been put in place to fight the menace of terrorism. There is, however, a need address the matter in its entirety before changing the status quo, so as to ensure that the change brought about is of a permanent nature. To this effect, it would be prudent to objectively analyse the crux of the issue, the options available and the attendant ramifications. The foremost question is - is the environment of relative peace that has been witnessed in the Valle in the summer gone by of a permanent and irrevocable nature? The central security establishment holds the opinion that the falling violence levels in the Valley may not indicate reduced militant activity. Infiltration is on the rise; nearly 2.500 militants are lodged in 42 terror training camps across the border, around 800 of them are waiting at the launch pads ready to be pushed across the line of control at the first available opportunity. Moreover, the linkages of the Delhi High Court blasts to J&K further establish that the lull in the state is only superficial. Under these circumstances, in case AFSPA is removed from some parts of J&K, the short term impact may be minimal given the fact that the winter has already set in and snow will soon block all the passes making it difficult for terrorists to conduct their activities. However, as the next summer dawn's things will hot up and JK Police may find it difficult to control the situation on its own. In the event of a violent outbreak in the Valley, requisitioning of the Army may become necessary thus leading to the re-imposition of AFSPA. The attendant loss of face would be critical for the government and the political establishment. There has also been talk of the J&K Government's plan to withdraw the Disturbed Areas Act (DAA) from 'Greater Srinagar' in December 2011. This decision is, perhaps, influenced by the Manipur model, where the State Government had withdrawn the DAA from Imphal in 2004 under pressure from civil activists and political opponents. The resultant anarchy prevalent in Imphal today and the failure of the Manipur government to control the militant groups (who exercise complete hold on the National Highways passing through State) should motivate the J&K government into thinking twice before following a path strewn with complications.. The Ministry of Defence has its own set of very valid reasons for continuance of the Act in its present form, based on logical national security imperatives. There has been no change in Pakistan's ideology and will to support the proxy war in J&K; reduced violence and declining infiltration is due to proactive operations by the security forces and not due to a change of heart of the perpetrators; withdrawal of US Forces from Afghanistan in conjunction with rapidly deteriorating internal situation in Pakistan spells trouble for J&K in the near future; counter terrorist operations by the Army are not restricted to the line of control alone but cover the adjoining areas and the populated hinterland from where the terrorists operate and draw their support, hence, AFSPA cannot be applied in pockets; lifting of AFSPA from urban areas will facilitate terrorists in rebuilding their bases, subsequent eviction will result in civilian casualties, collateral damage and a renewed cycle of violence. In the last few years, the Army has ensured zero tolerance for HR violations. It has also reduced its presence in major towns/cities and along the National highway by gradually handing over responsibility to JK Police/CRPF. The intention to gradually fade into the background is quite palpable, yet, AFSPA is being used as a convenient tool to vilify and blame the Army for all the ills that afflict the Valley. Cases of civilian deaths/injuries and damage to property are attributed to the "draconian powers" of AFSPA, irrespective of whether such loss has been caused by JK Police, Central Police Organisations or some other reasons unrelated to the security forces. AFSPA's powers to search and arrest without warrant and use of force do not imply that the Army is on a rampage in the Valley, any impartial inquiry will show that there have been almost no cases of illegal arrest or wanton killing during the last few years. What then is the recipe for peace, for the strife torn Valley. Perhaps, we need to wait and watch a few more summers of relative peace and calm. The overall security situation should be being closely monitored by all concerned, including the media. Withdrawal/dilution of AFSPA can be considered once the situation is found to be conducive by all stakeholders. The foremost requirement is to ensure that the peace which has been attained with great difficulty becomes sustainable. All efforts need to be directed towards this single objective
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