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| Manmohan no spoilt babe in the woods | | | CHANDAN MITRA | 12/4/2011 9:24:39 PM |
| There is cold calculation in the Prime Minister's high-risk survival strategy of confronting the Opposition and even allies over FDI in multi-brand retail
Is Prime Minister Manmohan Singh an incorrigibly stubborn man, stubborn to the point of being self-destructive? Or is he a canny but self-centred politician, contrary to his public image and appearances? As Parliament went into an official mini-recess for four days last Friday, Central Hall was abuzz with various theories around these questions. Most MPs, irrespective of party, had their own take on this, but broadly speaking, bewilderment was writ large. In fact, a mood of despondency prevailed Friday afternoon as MPs, badgered by mounting public criticism of a non-functioning Parliament, debated whether it would resume work even after reassembling on December 7. There were no clear answers. Belligerent Ministers strutted about declaring the Government wouldn't budge under any circumstances, asserting, "If the Government falls, so be it!"
Congress MPs, except the young brigade, bore a hangdog expression, whispering to rival party MPs that in their opinion the Government should be somewhat flexible. They admitted that regardless of the potential long-term benefits of FDI in multi-brand retail, the prevailing national mood was the strongest argument against enforcing it at present. The Congress is on the backfoot particularly because its main supporting parties, Trinamool Congress and DMK, remain vociferously opposed to the idea. While the Tamil ally's supremo, M Karunanidhi, has softened after his daughter's release from Tihar, Mamata Banerjee shows no signs of relenting. The phalanx of opposition to the Cabinet decision - that includes bitter rivals SP and BSP, CPI(M) and Trinamool, DMK and ADMK, BJP and the Left, regional groups like BJD and TDP - is formidable to say the least. Barring the NCP no other non-Congress party has come to Manmohan Singh's aid. After an initial show of dissent against the NDA's decision to oppose the Government's move, Akali chieftain Parkash Singh Badal has come around, over-ruling his FDI-friendly son.
Worse for the ruling party, its Kerala unit has virtually revolted. The State party chief wrote a formal letter to the Prime Minister seeking reconsideration, while two Ministers, Vayalar Ravi and KV Thomas, made it known they opposed the idea at the Cabinet meeting which eventually endorsed it. The reticent man that he is, heavyweight Union Minister for Defence AK Antony hasn't gone public, but it is well-known he too argued against the idea at the same Cabinet meeting.
Clearly, the Prime Minister may have underestimated the ferocity of the dissent. In such a situation, it would have been more prudent to take a step back, buy time to persuade allies, rally his own party's disaffected MPs, win over a few Opposition groups, pretend to have wider consultations and only then resume the offensive. Although the Government's ever-reliable trouble-shooter Pranab Mukherjee has been deployed to calm ruffled feathers, for once his success is far from assured.
All kind of rumours are doing the rounds in view of the inexplicable adamancy of the Prime Minister. Some say, he has sprung this on a reluctant party only to put Sonia Gandhi in place. Her well known jholawala views on any proposal for economic reforms being legendary, she finds herself on the horns of a terrible dilemma. Mum's the word being his Mom's line predictably, the son hasn't uttered a word on this yet. Anyway, he hardly ever says anything of substance on national issues or public policy. It is possible that her silence is part of a secret understanding so that if a partial rollback or holdback has to be announced, she should get the credit for ending the logjam.
But Congress leaders say the Prime Minister is as determined this time as he was on the nuclear deal. Few, however, are able to explain the reason for this fixation. Arguably, there is a dire economic need to bring in foreign investment at a time when the global scenario is not too optimistic and FDI inflows to India are declining. But this still does not explain: Why now? Couldn't the Government have waited till December 23 when the Winter Session of Parliament would conclude? The proclamation of the decision to permit FDI in multi-brand retail would have become fait accompli by the time the Budget Session commenced in the last week of February next year. And, trenchant opposition to the idea may have actually been tempered by then. Is the Prime Minister so ignorant of political realities not to have taken this into account? Surely that can't be.
The other, more plausible explanation doing the rounds is that FDI in retail is Manmohan Singh's last stand as an economic reformer. He began his political journey when PV Narasimha Rao surprised everybody and appointed him Finance Minister in 1991 to herald a liberalised economic regime, reversing the straitjacketed and sterile Socialist dogmas of the Nehru-Indira years which even Rajiv Gandhi failed to dismantle. Singh's detractors had then claimed he was Washington's choice and with IMF breathing down the neck, Rao had few options. True or not, Manmohan Singh earned widespread accolades for steering India through its rocky journey (the first securities scam of which Harshad Mehta was the kingpin happened under his gaze) to a quasi-mature market economy. India has not looked back, for the six-year-long tenure of Atal Bihari Vajpayee accomplished much of what Singh could not.
But as Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh's record on the economic front is dismal. For a while the economy, on auto-pilot post-Vajpayee, registered impressive growth; money flowed into middle class pockets, the automobile, telecom, real estate and education sectors boomed. But after more than seven years, first generation reforms had run their course. Bullied by Sonia Gandhi's jholawala brigade, the Government had to find money to throw away on unproductive schemes like MNREGA, farm-loan waivers and now food security. More money is now desperately needed to fund her spendthrift schemes.
Meanwhile, the Prime Minister's hitherto unsullied image was tarnished beyond repair by a succession of gigantic scams, most significantly the Rs 1.76 lakh crore swindle in the allotment of 2G spectrum licences. Manmohan Singh found himself targeted by one and all, reinforcing the belief that he is a weak and ineffective leader. Gifted with unusual common sense, which has ensured he never had to quit any job in his long career and remains a great survivor in the rough and tumble world of bureaucracy and politics, Singh may have concluded he needed to do something drastic to revive his image as a reformer. With pressure growing within the party for replacing him as Rahul Gandhi steadily ascends the rungs, a gamble was worth it.
If it fails, the Prime Minister will still go down as a man who had to sacrifice his chair at the altar of populism and thus retain his credibility with the middle class and American sponsors. If it succeeds, he would have won yet another famous victory like the nuclear deal and emerge stronger. Even 10 Janpath would then have a problem shunting him out. From that standpoint it is not such a high risk gamble for him as it seems. Next week will decide which way the dice falls. |
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