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| Indo-Pak talks unlikely to yield any breakthrough | | | BL KAK
NEW DELHI, JAN 11
Even as Pranab Mukherjee, Minister for External Affairs, is all set to set his foot on the soil of Islamabad on Saturday, Pakistan-watchers in Delhi's ruling political class do not expect any wonder. Mukherjee's trip is expected to firm up peace efforts between his country and Pakistan rather than yield any breakthrough.
Pranab Mukherjee's two-day visit starting Saturday to Islamabad is primarily to invite Pakistani leaders to New Delhi for a South Asian summit in April, although the two sides will inevitably discuss the ongoing peace process. According to sources in the External Affairs Ministry, Mukherjee and his Pakistani copunterpart, Khurshid Mehmood Kasuri, will assess the progress made so far and pave the way for the start of the next round of talks. Mukherjee is to meet Kasuri on Sunday, and will also call on President, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, and Prime Minister, Shaukat Aziz.
Peace talks launched in February 2004, on eight contentious issues including the divided Himalayan region of Kashmir, have resulted in increased "people-to-people" contact, and accords to cut risks of an accidental launch of atomic weapons and prior notification of missile tests. India put the process on hold in the face of public outrage over last July's deadly attacks on Mumbai's commuter network, which New Delhi blamed on Pakistan's spy agency and a Pakistan-based militant group.
Foreign Secretary-level talks in New Delhi in mid-November, during which the two sides agreed to set up a new anti-terror panel, has put the talks back on track. But progress on divided Kashmir-the cause of two out of three wars since 1947 -- has been painfully slow, even though government sources say that "back-channel discussions" on the subject have been going "rather well."
Indian security analyst, Uday Bhaskar, said there was now "a greater content and a greater resilience" in the peace process, but stressed any solution will "take time." A Pakistani defence analyst, retired general Talat Masood, said the other day that talks were a fresh sign that the neighbours had "decided to cooperate and move forward substantively on resolving the Kashmir dispute". "There is not likely to be any breakthrough on the contentious issues, but it will at least allow both the sides to exchange views and to see how to move forward the peace process", he said.
According to one report, a section within the ruling Congress party "wants a breakthrough with Pakistan that can be highlighted as a foreign policy coup". "But there are others that warn Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, to proceed with caution", the report said. The report added that the upcoming meeting between Mukherjee and Kasuri could bring some of the thoughts discussed through the back-channels to the diplomatic domain.
India is willing to consider new proposals. The Prime Minister has said that short of redrawing the borders, India was willing to discuss all proposals. However with Assembly polls looming in most populous State of Uttar Pradesh that has a significant bearing on national politics, New Delhi is likely to be cautious.
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