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| Crisis in Pakistan, Advantage India | | Kashmiri Secessionism -- I | | Rustam
JAMMU, Jan 17: Islamic Republic of Pakistan, an unnatural formation, is in turmoil. No one can predict what will happen to it. Will it survive as a nation or will it not? No one can give a definite answer. The situation in Pakistan is so fluid. Anything can happen anytime. The Army can bring off a coup and the Supreme Court of Pakistan could give a legal cover to it ostensibly on the ground that the civil administration has lost its credibility and legitimacy and that it has forfeited its moral, political and constitutional authority to rule the country. It would be a coup of different nature. The Army would have in the persons of the newly-appointed President and Prime Minister its puppets. In other words, the Army would rule the country indirectly without any accountability. Even fresh elections to the Pakistan Assembly could be held before due date and Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani and several others could be put behind bars. Anything could happen anytime. Even the Prime Minister could resign anytime from now. There are reports to this effect. Gilani reportedly said on Monday that "he is ready to quit if the step strengthened the government and Parliament".
The situation as it exists today in Pakistan is such that the Army and the judiciary are seen to be working in tandem to bring down the government of President Zardari and cut Prime Minister Gilani to his size. The Pakistani Army and the ISI have virtually revolted against Gilani and there are reasons to believe that the relations between the two would further worsen in the coming days. In fact, the Pakistani Chief of the Army Staff, General Kayani, and Prime Minister Gilani have taken on each other publicly. While Gilani has charged Kayani and the ISI chief with violating the Constitution of Pakistan and declared that Parliament is supreme, Kayanai has warned Gilani of serious repercussions in case he continues to air anti-Army views. Kayani has asked Gilani to withdraw his statement. Gilani has refused to oblige Kayani, saying he is answerable only to the Parliament.
As for the Supreme Court of Pakistan, it has not only dubbed Zardari and Gilani as "dishonest" but also issued a contempt notice to the Prime Minister asking him to appear before it in person on January 19. Gilani, who had spoken against the judiciary only a few days ago, has decided to appear before the Supreme Court to clear his position on cases of corruption in which several Pakistani politicians, including President Zardari, are involved and tell the court why did he not obey the court orders in this regard. The contempt notice was served on him yesterday. It may be recalled that the Pakistani Supreme Court had been pressuring Gilani to reopen cases of alleged money laundering against Zardari and others since December 2009, when it struck down a graft amnesty issued by former Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf. The Supreme Court has, in addition, accepted the Army's request for ordering a probe into the alleged secret memo that had sought US support to stave off a possible military coup in Pakistan after the killing of Al-Qaeda chief Osama-bin-Laden. It is alleged that it was Zardari at whose best the said memo was sent to the Washington D.C.
Zardari and Gilani and their supporters in the government and Parliament also appear to be in fighting mode. It is because of them that the Pakistan Assembly adopted yesterday a resolution that vouched for democracy, as against dictatorship (read Army rule). The resolution could be construed as a full-scale confrontation between the executive and the Army.
The confrontation between the executive and the Army on the one hand, the confrontation between the former and the Supreme Court on the other and the quite visible unity between the Supreme Court and the Army is one aspect that indicates the nature of the crisis Pakistan is face to face with today. The other aspect is the internal security in Pakistan and abnormal situation prevailing along the Afghanistan-Pakistan (AfPak) border. Pakistan is witnessing deadly terrorist attacks and bomb blasts on a daily basis. The Sunnis, who dominate the Pakistani polity, the Army, the ISI and the economy, have intensified their attacks on the Shiite Muslims. The Shiite Muslims, too, are not in a mood to let the Sunnis go scot-free. They have their own terrorist outfits which are from time to time avenging the gruesome killings of the minority Shiite Muslims.
The situation on the Afghan-Pak border is highly volatile with Afghanistan, in collaboration with the US and NATO forces, doing all that it could to defeat the Pakistani designs on Kabul. Kabul is determined not to allow Islamabad to play nefarious games in Afghanistan. The relations between Islamabad and Washington D.C. are far from normal and the relations got strained, particularly after May 2 last, when the American Navy Seals conducted a military operation deep inside Pakistan at Abbotabad and captured and killed Osama-bin-Laden and took away his body to an unknown place. The attack had been taken by the Pakistani public as a direct attack on their sovereignty. (To be continued) |
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