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| Bad Omens: But do we see them? | | US, Kabul, Islamabad, Delhi, Kashmir & religious cleansing | | Early Times Report
Jammu, Feb 19: The debate in Pakistan after the declaration by President Obama that USA will soon withdraw around 30,000 troops from Afghanistan reveals the well informed character of the political class, media and the strategic fraternity in Pakistan, at least in the matters which they consider to be in the realm of national security. On the Indian side the debate is almost absent as if leaving of the American troops from Afghanistan is a minor development. Strategic fraternity here has commented with a muted sensitivity about the issue but the political class across the party lines in New Delhi is demonstrating an attitude which can be termed as an Ostrich Consensus.
Leading Pakistani columnist, who writes extensively on strategic matters, commented recently, "Afghanistan, and with it the region, has reached a point where no course of action can be based on a definitive formulation. Staying is clearly not an option for a bankrupt and exhausted United States. But leaving creates a whole new set of problems, from the risk of a complete collapse in Kabul to the boost to militant groups' prestige, with attendant blowback effects upon Pakistan." On the Indian side no such appraisal is taking place in the public domain. There is a peace buzz on this side. We are soon going to have trade with Pakistan as never before. We will be selling Pakistan electricity. Soon after the US commander of the military affairs in Afghanistan said that the Killing of Pakistani soldiers in an American military strike was a well-considered decision our Home Minister P Chidambaram forwarded a certificate to Pakistani Army and the government that they were no longer supporting the terrorist regimes hostile to India. The Government of India seems to be providing a lifeline to the Pakistani military establishment when the entire world is getting more and more convinced by the fact that Pakistan is the epicenter of international terrorism.
The belligerence of Pakistani State vis-à-vis the developments in Afghanistan and the humiliating predicament in which Pakistani state feels the American are in the region can be summed by the series of articles which appeared in Pakistani media recently, written by Pakistani and American experts, under the title caption, " Get out, Or get the hell out." Pakistani analysts sum up the new dangers looming large on the horizons as, "In such a scenario, Afghanistan is likely to see a civil war along ethnic and linguistic fault lines far more destructive than in the 1990s. This would not only keep the Pakistani tribal areas unstable but also boost the influence of militant groups in Pakistani society." On the Indian side there is no such appraisal taking place. The ground situation in Jammu and Kashmir, which the local police evaluate to have improved dramatically with a decrease in violence to the tune of 48 per cent, is seen to have turned the bend permanently away from violence. We are witnessing a honeymoon relationship between the radical fundamentalist organisations and the governments in the state and the Centre.
Ali Shah Geelani whom the present J&K Chief Minister holds to be indispensile is the new extra-constitutional power center. His reference is enough to see local administration standing up and offering help. The rise in importance of Geelani has led to the increased Wahabi influence in the villages with the moderate Muslim clergy getting scared to the bones. The spreading menace of radicalistion can be gauged in the words of the petition by the pastor of All Saints Church, Sonwar, Srinagar, seeking quashing of FIR against him, registered at police station Ram Munshi Bagh, Srinagar. Before the registration of the FIR the Pastor had been summoned by the Supreme Court of Islamic Shariat, J&K, Srinagar, to present himself before the so-called Court. The plea of the petitioner to the High Court of the state noted, "when he reached there he was surrounded by around 25-30 people, including Muslim religious heads (Ulema). The atmosphere in the said proceedings was so surcharged that everybody was shouting insults and false accusations against the petitioner. These proceedings were highlighted almost in every local newspaper in the valley." Parallel Shariat Courts operating in the Valley under the very nose of the government bound by the law of the land is not a new development. The governments in the state and at the centre have allowed them to operate. It is obvious. Talibanisation is not a threat looming large in a distant horizon but a day to day reality.
Increased infiltration bids and underplaying of actual infiltration, the proliferation of sleeper cells, radicalisation of social milieu and the government apparatus are not being factored in security assessments in India. Developments in Afghanistan in the prelude to American troop withdrawal and the rising cloud of impending dangers is being sought to be doused by a bonhomie between Congress regime in India and the government in Pakistan. Pakistan has already charted a course for the Americans to leave in a way that suits them. Having forced India to walk on the path of "uninterrupted and uninterruptible" dialogue process after succeeding to de-link negotiations from terror acts, Pakistan is achieving almost all its national security policy manoeuvres. The days coming are displaying omens which are not good for India. |
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