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| Failure of Rahul to have serious impact on Omar | | Predicting unpredictable | |
Bashir Assad
JAMMU, Mar 7: It will be too early to interpret as to whether the failure of Rahul factor to make a mark in Utter Pradesh assembly elections and galvanise the large public gatherings into vote bank, will have national implications on the UPA government at centre, however, the failure of the idea of "Young India" brigade will have certainly direct bearings on the political scenario in Jammu and Kashmir.
Though it is too early to interpret all the national implications of the assembly polls in four states where Congress suffered a huge setback but its implications on Jammu and Kashmir are quite evident.
First, it is being widely acknowledged that J&K Chief Minister Omar Abdullah survived even in situation when ouster of the National Conference-Congress coalition government has become inevitable only because of the backing of Rahul Ghandi.
Secondly, the intervention of old congress horses from Prime Minister Dr. Man Mohan Sigh down to Pranab Mukherji, Ghulam Nabi Azad and Makhan Lal Fotedar, in the state affairs was almost trifling again because of the Young India, Young Brigade concept which was quite to the advantage of the chief minister Omar Abdullah on one hand who would feel empowered and on the other hand the concept at the national level was interpreted in a unique manner so as to declare the old congress horses as dead wood and the culture as outdated.
However, overall the state assembly election results announced the other day have been bad for Congress, not only in UP where Gandhi failed to make a mark, but also in Punjab which it unexpectedly lost, and in Goa where it was routed after its state government's involvement in extensive mining corruption. To varying degrees, these results show voters reacting to Congress's dire performance and weak leadership with the government's series of corruption scandals and other policy failures, as well as to price rises and other local issues. But the results could be a blessing in disguise for the seniors in the party who had become redundant immaterial how experienced they are and their contribution in building the congress. And it seems very likely that their lost dignity and place in the party will be restored owing to the fact that "young India" idea has failed in rejuvenating the congress party at the national level.
If this assumption, somehow takes the practical shape, the count down of young chief minister will begin soon as the congress leadership will start reasserting in the state politics and their scope for intervention will broaden. On the other hand state congress unit, though divided, will reinforce and it will be difficult for Omar to control them. "Feel free" dharma will pose a great challenge to young Omar and the scope of "young India comes to the rescue of young Kashmir" will certainly reduce to the maximum.
Omar survived even after serious charges of corruption against his ministers belonging to both the partners came to the fore, alleged custodial killing of Sayed Yusuf, alleged "rape and double murder case of Shopaian girls" "killing of 120 youth during the summer unrest of 2010" "governance deficit" "mishandling of extraordinary situations during last three years" "ripples within parties and within the coalition", because he was enjoying full confidence of "Young India".
Now when the faith and expectations on "Young India" have shattered, conventional politics of congress will come to play and if that happens, Omar will be in real trouble.
At the same time, it will be interesting to see marginalized senior leaders of National Conference reasserting with logic and reason. Many of them have gone into oblivion owing to the "young brigade" onslaught and yet many among them have chosen to resign to their fate.
Ghulam Nabi Azad, Makhan Lal Fotedar, Saifudin Soz and their respective lobbies in Delhi will become proactive and dictate the terms which eventually could help Mufti Muhammad Sayed's PDP to revive its friendship and may be Mufti finds a good number of friends at his back.
On the other hand, congress minister in the coalition government, who have been alleging their colleagues from National Conference for hatching conspiracies against them, may resort to the same tactics in media and public which could further the trust deficit and if and when such a situation arises, predicting mid-term polls will catch the headlines. |
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