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| Political Scene Future of NC | | | Rustam
Jammu, Mar 24: National Conference is the oldest political formation as far as Kashmir is concerned. Like the Congress, it has its workers and supporters in all the towns and villages in the Valley and its adjoining areas in Ladakh and Jammu province. But basically its support-base is confined to Kashmir and to a particular religious community. There was a time when the National Conference would sweep elections in Kashmir and dominate the state's political scene. No Kashmir-based political group could compete with it. As late as in 1996, the National Conference established that it was a force to reckon with in Kashmir. It captured almost all the assembly seats. In Jammu also, it captured 12 seats and created history by winning a number of Hindu-majority seats.
Things have changed and changed substantially during the past 15 years or so. Its support-base his dwindled to a considerable extent both in Kashmir and Jammu province. This could be seen from the fact that its strength in the assembly has reduced to just 28 in the 87-member House. Its tally in 2002 was 28 and its tally remained unchanged in the 2008 assembly elections as well. As for Kashmir which returns to the assembly as many as 46 members, the National Conference's share is less than 20. This is very important in the sense that the National Conference ruled the state for many years without the support of any other political party, Kashmir-based or Jammu-based. It is ruling the state today in collaboration with the Congress whose own support-base has been consistently shrinking very fast across the country, particularly since 2009.
The fact of the matter is that the National Conference today is no longer a sole factor in the Kashmir's so-called mainstream political arena. It is now just one of the two important factors. The other very important factor is the People's Democratic Party. It is this party that has captured the bulk of political space the National Conference used to occupy not-so-long ago. The reasons are obvious and two of the main reasons are the failure of the National Conference to provide a people-centric, corruption-free, transparent and fair administration and the manner in which the custodians or the owners of this premiere political outfit of Kashmir have compromised their ideology for the sake of personal power and profit. Yet another very important reason is their alleged involvement in corruption from head to toe. The People's Democratic Party, which has become very active, is there to upset the National Conference's applecart by exploiting to the hilt the weaknesses of and acts of omission and commission committed by its top-ranking leaders. The situation as it prevails today in Kashmir clearly suggests that the People's Democratic Party is in a position to turn the tables on the National Conference. In other words, the National Conference is facing a great challenge from the people's Democratic Party in Kashmir.
As for Jammu province, the National Conference had raised its hands in 2009 itself when it entered into pre-poll alliance with the Congress and decided to leave both the Lok Sabha seats in Jammu province for the Congress party. The National Conference fielded its candidate in all the three Lok Sabha constituencies in Kashmir. This pre-poll electoral alliance and the way the two alliance partners distributed Lok Sabha seats was an admission that the National Conference had little or no say in Jammu province and the Congress had no chance in Kashmir. In other words, the National Conference leadership accepted that it was not a state-level party but a one-region party. The story of the Congress was no different.
It would be a great political miracle if the National Conference would retain the seats it controls today in the next assembly elections. Its political future doesn't seem bright either in Kashmir or in Jammu province. This is the position as it exists as of now. |
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