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| Dynasty on decline | | | A Surya Prakash | 4/4/2012 12:09:18 AM |
| The results of the recent Assembly election in Uttar Pradesh show a severe erosion of support for the Nehru-Gandhi clan. Is this the end of the road?
The outcome of the recent Assembly election in the Amethi-Rae Bareli-Sultanpur belt in Uttar Pradesh should be a matter of concern for the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty and the Congress. The results show that the dynasty's vote-bank has suffered considerable depletion in this area, which has been its bastion for many decades. Yet, given the distinct electoral advantage that the Congress's first family has over others, can we presume that its charisma has evaporated altogether? A detailed analysis of the results and their implications may be in order.
When the results came in on March 6, most analysts were shocked to see that the Congress had won just two of the 15 Assembly seats falling within the Lok Sabha constituencies of Amethi, Rae Bareli and Sultanpur. As against 8.74 lakh votes polled in the five Assembly segments in Amethi, represented by Rahul Gandhi, Congress candidates bagged 2.59 lakh votes, constituting just under 30 per cent - hardly anything to crow about. However, the little hope that is seen in Amethi for the dynasty is well and truly extinguished when one steps into Rae Bareli, represented by Ms Sonia Gandhi, and Sultanpur, where Mr Sanjay Singh won in 2009. In Rae Bareli, of the 9.12 lakh votes polled, Congress candidates secured just 1.97 lakh votes (22 per cent). The party lost all the five Assembly seats.
Enter Sultanpur, and you see the dynasty's electoral fortunes virtually nose-dive. Here, of the 8.84 lakh votes cast, the Congress candidates secured just 59,817 votes, amounting to a miserable seven per cent of the votes polled. All of them lost their deposits.
The macro picture of the Amethi-Rae Bareli-Sultanpur belt is as follows: Of the 26.7 lakh votes polled in these constituencies in 2012, the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty could swing just 5.16 lakh votes in its favour, which amounts to 19 per cent. But, if one sees it as a percentage of the total electorate in these constituencies (roughly 44 lakhs), it is less than 12 per cent. This amounts to virtually scraping the bottom of the ballot box, because the Nehru-Gandhis were out in full strength during the campaign. Apart from Ms Sonia Gandhi and Mr Rahul Gandhi, Ms Priyanka Vadra and her husband Robert Vadra also stepped out with their children to campaign for the party. The contrast is even sharper when it is seen against the party's performance in the 2009 Lok Sabha election. In that election, of the 20.21 lakh votes polled, the party garnered 12.46 lakh votes (60 per cent). In 2012, though the votes polled went up to 26.70 lakhs, the Congress's share slumped to just 5.16 lakh votes.
From here on, much depends on how the Nehru-Gandhis view the results. Being one of the younger politicians in the country who has not held any public office (and is, therefore, untainted) and who appeared to be sincere, Mr Rahul Gandhi was perceived as a natural ally by millions of citizens who supported the anti-corruption movement. However, their expectations have been belied as Mr Gandhi has virtually become the spokesman for the Union Government and the politicians who stand tainted. He made no promise to fight corruption and, therefore, failed to connect with the people and ride the crest of the anti-corruption wave. Thereby, he let go the most 'secular' issue which has troubled voters across religions, castes and States. This was the prime reason for his disastrous performance in Uttar Pradesh. The other issue that repulsed voters was the crass attempt made by the dynasty and the Congress to woo Muslims. The results show that all the drama about minority reservation before the announcement of the election and during the campaign failed to impress the Muslim community. On the other hand, the relentless and often self-congratulatory proclamation regarding the party's commitment to reservation for Muslims alienated several sections of the Hindus.
The results show that Muslim voters extended massive support to the Samajwadi Party and even gave a leg-up to the fledgling Peace Party, promoted by Muslims. The Peace Party even won the Rae Bareli Assembly seat in Ms Sonia Gandhi's Lok Sabha constituency by a huge margin and pushed the Congress to third place. Clearly, the Muslims gave the Congress the thumbs down. Significantly, the Peace Party got its share of the Muslim vote and determined the outcome in at least 40 Assembly seats in the State.
Will the Congress persist with its policy of chasing this chimera called the 'Muslim vote'? Since its arch rival, the BJP, is losing out on Hindu support, will the Congress re-work its relations with large sections of the Hindus? Why did Mr Rahul Gandhi fail in Uttar Pradesh? Is it because the dynasty's charisma is on the wane or is it because he espoused all the wrong causes? From here on, much will depend on the answers that the Congress and the Nehru-Gandhis come up to these questions. Those who are predicting the end of the charisma of the Nehru-Gandhis and writing their political obituary after seeing the recent results are either acting in haste or allowing their political predilections to get the better of their judgement. Even today, though their hold over the electorate has declined, the Nehru-Gandhis remain the country's best vote-pullers at the national level. That is why Mrs Indira Gandhi could win comfortably from Chickmagalur in Karnataka in 1978 and Ms Sonia Gandhi from Bellary in 1999. The fascination of the electorate for the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty extends to the Sanjay-Maneka branch as well. Ms Maneka Gandhi has won comfortably from Pilibhit in five elections, two of which she contested as an Independent. Her son Varun Gandhi has now stepped in and taken her place as MP from Pilibhit, while she has shifted to Aonla.
That members of this dynasty have a distinct advantage over others in electoral contests in many parts of the country, should now be beyond dispute. It is also a fact that the Rajiv-Sonia branch has a far greater sway over the electorate. However, this does not necessarily guarantee success at the hustings. The dynasty can leverage this advantage only if it has its finger on the pulse of the people, be on the side of good governance, have a nationalist approach and shun denominational politics. Whenever members of the dynasty scored low on these four counts - in 1977, 1989 and 1999 and 2012 - the Nehru-Gandhi lineage became a distinct disadvantage. We must wait and see whether the dynasty can fight back to regain its charisma |
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