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How the cost of living has gone up & the chances of living gone down
KAILASH C. RAINA7/6/2012 10:44:56 PM
If we look into Indian economy today due to the falling of India's Growth rate fallen to 5.2% it is troublesome. This is the lowest in seven years and the sputtering of India Economic miracle carries social cost that could surpass the pain in the Urozone. The near double digit pace of growth that India enjoyed in 2004-2008. And if sustained it would lift hundreds of millions of Indian out poverty and creation of jobs would have been quick. Job would have been created for all the youth & young people.
But now due to currency slump in currency and no private investment in sight. Now it is upto Finance Minister to spell whether India can return to a path of high growth depends on its politicians and in the end it looks the omens, frankly are not good. But India's slow down is due to many problems at home and has been looming for a while. The states are borrowing too much and crowding out private firms and keeping inflation high. It had not passed a big reform for years, Graft, confusion, highlanders red tape have infuriated domestic businesses and harmed investment. A high-handed view of foreign investors has made a big current account deficit harder to finance and the rupee has plunged.
The remedies agreed not just by foreign investors and liberal new papers but also by Manmohan Singh's Government are blindingly Advisors. The combined budget deficit of newly 10% GDP must be tamed, particularly by cutting waste fuel subsidies India must reform tax and foreign investment rules. It must speed up big industrial infrastructure projects. It must confront corruption none of this task is insurmountable. Most are supposedly Government policy why then does Singh not act? Vacillation plays a role. But so do the deeper political problems. First the state matching has still not
been modernized. It is neither capable of overcoming red tape and vested interests not keen to relax its grip over the bits of the economy it still controls. The thing that do work in India - a corruption busting supreme Court the leading IT Firms a scheme to give electronic identities to all- are often, Independent of or by pass described state. Second as the bureaucracy has degrated politics has fragmented. The two big parties Congress & the BJP are losing support to regional ones. For all the talk of aspiration voters do not see to connect Reform with progress. India's Liberalizers' over the past two decades including
Singh himself have reformed by stealth. That now looks like a liability no population consensus exists in favour of change or tough decisions. Manmohan Singh's Government definitely tries to clear the Bottlenecks, fending and overlapping bureaucracies can get in the way and present all together different propositions and suggestions like increase in fuel prices it faces protests and back down or when it passes Reforms on foreign investment. Its coalition parties threaten to pull out of the alliance. It is not helping the Ageing Manmohan Singh as he has little clout at his own, he reports to the ailing .Sonia Gandhi like the dynastic Chief of Congress. With a packed electoral time table before general elections in 2014 and Congress does not want to take the risk. It is really time for the change at the top. Congress has run out of steam, but there are no appealing candidates to replace him. Gandhi son, Rahul has been a disappointment in U.P elections. The opposition BJP is split and has been widely inconsistent about reform. Today if they have any capable administrator is none other than Modi Chief Minister of Gujrat, who is divisive and authoritarian and if BJP form a Government in 2014 or earlier also if Midterm poll is to be relied upon. The BJP will also have depends on smaller parties. India economy cannot be brought on the right track because the country's whole economical system is in the hands of 100/125 families who all are experts in manipulating the stock exchanges and flourish on it. The laws are not stringent and hails are available from courts in many a case they are not interrogated also. Indian Banks face bad debts, its cloistered financial system, high foreign exchange reserves and capable central bank means it is not about to kneel over. A little shock would indeed be useful, but a full blown crisis should not be wished for, because of the harm that it would do to the poor. India's feeble politics in several years with feebler economic growth has cared only about state handouts, the next meal, little entertained and sleep, but when the people understand that slower growth means fewer jobs and more poverty, they will become agitative and will be really a shock for the politicians. If they beg vote for a change which looks bleak and chances of putting the economy on right track is now a hilarious task. The real job to improve the economy is to start export to European Union. Our own productivity should be increased. The balance between exports and imports is to be maintained and this is true mantra for economic sustainability. If we have to change with the world• our economist should add little small ideas to achieve big changes.
The Author is a Free Launcer Journalist and can be contacted at
E-mail ID: [email protected]
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