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| Congress' unpopularity likely to benefit BJP | | |
ET REPORT
JAMMU, Aug 26: The BJP is in a better position these days, notwithstanding its many acts of omission and commission, its failure to play the role of an effective opposition and the India Against Corruption factor. Its electoral chances seem quite bright. It is better placed in Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Uttrakhand, Jharkhand, Bihar, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Gujarat. These are the states where the main fight would be between the BJP and its allies and the Congress. In Maharashtra, Punjab and Bihar, the BJP's allies
are Shiv Sena (Bal Thakeray), Shiromani Akali Dal of Prakash Singh Badal and Janata Dal (United) of Shard Yadav. The BJP can also spring a surprise in Jammu, notwithstanding the fact that it has very weak leadership. The Congress is not on a strong wicket in any of these states. The reasons are obvious. Some of the reasons include lack of leadership, rampant corruption, insensitivity, arrogance, multi-crore scams, mal-administration or governance-deficit, trust-deficit, bad law and order situation, defective foreign policy, anti-people economic policies, high prices, acute unemployment problem and so on.
The BJP can again turn tables against the Congress and Janata Dal (Secular) in Karnataka, notwithstanding the Yeddeurappa episode. Two factors go in favour of the BJP in this southern state, which for the first time got a BJP government almost 4 years ago. These factors are Lingayats and Vokaligas. Yeddurappa, former chief minister, and Jagdish Settar, present chief minister, have major say in these two major social groups. They constitute nearly 40 per cement of the state's population. As for the Congress, there is crisis of leadership in Karnataka.
There is hardly any Congress leader in the state who can become a rallying point.
The BJP and its age-old ally Shiv Sena (Bal Thakre) are also in a commanding position in Maharashtra. The just-held corporation and other civic body elections, including election to the Mumbai Municipal Corporation, clearly indicated that the mood in this western state is against the ruling Congress and its ally Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). Scandals and scams, including Adarash Colony scam, plus mal-administration and rampant corruption, have dented the image of the Congress and the NCP. Besides, the relations between Congress chief minister and NCP deputy chief minister and the NCP national president and union agriculture minister are far from cordial. But more than that, the Congress is vertically divided into three groups.
The BJP can perform well in the crucial Uttar Pradesh as well. The just-held elections to the 12 municipal corporations in the state's major cities, including Lucknow, Kanpur, Varanasi and Aligarh, clearly indicated that the BJP, which had suffered a massive defeat in the assembly elections, had restored much of the ground it had lost over the period. The BJP had won 10 out of 12 municipal corporations. It was a landslide victory. The Congress couldn't even open its account. Earlier, it controlled four corporations. The Congress doesn't have any organizational machinery in Uttar Pradesh. It has leaders and no workers and leaders are pulling each other's legs. The BSP has lost its sheen and appeal. As for the Samajwadi Party, it has proved that it is just incompetent to rule. It is jungle raj prevailing in UP. During the last 5 months, chief minister Akhilesh Yadav has demonstrated his inability to manage things and stick to the decisions he takes. He has reversed many of his decisions under pressure. That he has failed to perform could be seen from the displeasure shown by his own father and SP supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav. Only two weeks ago he administered warning to Akhilesh and his ministers twice and threatened that he would show the non-performing ministers the door. Besides, there are at least four power centres in the UP Government. It is a bad situation in UP by any standard and, hence, advantage BJP.
In Odisha, the BJP is better placed as compared to the Congress. There are pockets in this eastern state which could repose their faith in the BJP. In this state the fight would be three-cornered with Biju Janata Dal doing quite well and BJP coming number two. This time, the BJP could also give a fight to the Congress in the north-eastern states, especially Assam, where the recent communal riots have changed the state's political scenario. These ethnic and bloody conflicts between the Bodos, original inhabitants of Assam, and Muslims, who have illegally immigrated from Bangladesh and changed the state's demography to a very large extent, have dented the image of the Congress government in Assam and the Congress-led UPA government at the centre, with the original inhabitants of Assam holding them responsible for what has been happening in this sensitive state.
The only states where the BJP is not in the reckoning are West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Andhra Pradesh. It would not be surprising if the BJP wins almost 200 seats in the 2014 general elections. BJP veteran and former deputy prime minister L K Advani did not exaggerate things when he wrote in his blog a few days ago that the Congress might not win even 100 seats. Right now the Congress's tally in the Lok Sabha is 206 and the BJP's less than 116.
The BJP can take advantage of the Congress unpopularity provided it willing to put a united face and convince the people that the campaign unleashed by Arvind Kejriwal and India Against Corruption against it is motivated and aimed at helping the Congress directly and indirectly. Besides, it has to make optimum use of the time that is at its disposal and demonstrate in the Parliament and outside that it is committed to eradicating corruption and providing a credible alternative. |
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