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| BJP emerging as an alternative to Congress | | Anti-Establishment Wave | | Neha
Jammu, Sept 1: Surveys are being conducted by certain private news channels, leading magazines and election experts to find which way the political wind is blowing in India these days and which of the political parties would be in a commanding position if general elections are held today. The surveys conducted by India Today, NDTV and ABP News all suggest that the Congress is on its way out and the main opposition BJP way ahead of the Congress. These surveys also suggest that the BJP-led NDA will win more than 200 seats and the Congress-led UPA less than 190, with the UPA partners, barring the Congress, retaining control over all the 58 Lok Sabha constituencies they at present hold.
According to the ABP survey, the BJP will get atleast nine per cent more votes, as compared to the Congress. It is a huge margin. In the today's Indian politics, you can bring down the Government by getting just one per cent more votes. If what the ABP survey suggests is correct, and it should be correct considering the level of the Congress's unpopularity, then the BJP will sweep the polls. It alone may get more than 200 seats. The States where the BJP is expected to perform exceedingly well include Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Delhi, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Karnataka. It is also expected to perform reasonably well in Uttar Pradesh, Assam, Orissa and Jammu and Kashmir. As for its allies like Shiv Sena, Shiromani Akali Dal, Janta Dal (United), they are also expected to perform exceedingly well in their respective States. It appears from the emerging trends that BJP-led NDA would cross the 272 mark. Then there are parties like the AIADMK of J Jayalalitha, Biju Janata Dal of Navin Patnaik and All Assam Gana Sangram Parishad, which would certainly support the BJP-led NDA. The prevailing situation in the country is such.
The findings of the NDTV are no different. The survey shows that the Congress today is the most hated political party in India. The level of unpopularity of the Congress could be gauged from the fact that out of nearly 29,000 persons whose opinion was sought by it only 26 per cent have some liking for AICC president's son Rahul Gandhi. It is Narendra Modi of the BJP who is far ahead of all those considered Prime Ministerial stuff.
The most significant aspect is that most of these surveys were conducted before August 21, when the Comptroller and Auditor-General's report on the Rs 1.86 lakh crore coal scam was tabled in the Parliament. After August 21, the Parliament has become dysfunctional because the BJP has not allowed it to function. It is demanding resignation of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and saying it will allow the Parliament to function only after the Prime Minister put in his papers. Ever since that day, the Congress party and the UPA Government have been under severe attack. They have not been able to defend themselves. They are on the defensive. The media, especially the electronic media, is reporting this alleged scam almost every hour and it has been unsparing with many Ministers running away from it.
Had these surveys been conducted after August 21, results would have been altogether different. No one would have given more than 60 to 70 seats to the Congress party. In any case, the Common Wealth Games scam, 2G spectrum scam, Adarsh Society scam, coalgate scam and many other scams have caused an irreparable damage to the Congress party and the Government that it has been leading, called UPA 2. The situation is unlikely to improve. In other words, the days of the Congress party are numbered. It is not just corruption, governance deficit and mal-administration which have spoiled the Congress's electoral chances. It is the leadership crisis that has also added to its woes. Its biggest problem is that it has no vote-catcher, not even Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. It can be seen from the fact that the people decimated the Congress party in Rae Bareli, Amethi and Pratapgarh, their pocket boroughs only some five months ago. |
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