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Population of Jammu equal to Kashmir, if not more
Experts question 2011 census figures -- I
10/16/2015 11:58:48 PM
Early Times Report
JAMMU, Oct 16: The concerned people of Jammu region had consistently questioned the 2011 census figures concerning the State and asserted that their population was equal to that of Kashmir, if not more. That their claim seems to be well founded could be seen from what the experts like Sanjeev Nayyar have said on the basis of their research. They have asserted that "figures are cold statistics, but they do have a subtext".
What has Nayyar said about the 2011 census figures concerning J&K? He has said, "Between 2001 and 2011 the State's population went up by 23.6% whilst the number of voters between 2002 and 2014 went up by 14%" and added that "in absolute terms population in Kashmir between 2001 and 2011 went up by 14.11 lakhs (25.8%) whilst increase in number of voters between 2002 and 2014 was by 24.7% (7.12 lakhs). Corresponding figures for Jammu are 21% and 5%".
It is pertinent to mention here that in 2002, the number of voters in Jammu region were more than Kashmir by 1.41 lakhs. In 2014, Kashmir exceeds Jammu by 4.21 lakhs i.e. a whopping swing of 5.67 lakhs.
It also needs to be noted that there is no census data available for 1951 and 1991, as the State was excluded from the census operations conducted in 1951 and 1991 by the Registrar General of India across the nation.
Sanjeev Nayyar, who has put in hard labour to study the demographic changed in Kashmir and Jammu, has made the following observations:
1. From census ending 1971-2001, average population growth in J&K was approximately 30%, dropping to 24% in 2011. Corresponding figures for Kashmir are 29% dropping to 26% in 2011 and for Jammu, 31% dropping to 21% in 2011.
2. The % growth in Jammu population post 1991 would actually be lower than 21% since some part of the migrated Kashmiri population, post 1990 genocide, must be residing in Jammu. Due to migration within and outside the State, the % growth in Kashmir's population should have been lower but it grew by 26%.
3. Census figures show that the difference between population of Jammu and Kashmir has in a way disproportionately increased in the two decades between 1981 and 2001 (251 % over 2 census periods i.e. over 100% per decade) and 2001 and 2011(44%). It was 2,54,000 in 1951, 3,27,000 in 1961, 3,60,000 in 1971, 4,17,000 in 1981, 10,47,000 in 2001 and 15,09,000 in 2011. Note that difference between two regions increased by 44% between 2001 and 2011 i.e. post outbreak of insurgency in 1989 as compared to 16% between 1971 and 1981.
4. If we were to compare population in absolute numbers between 1981 and 2011, population in Jammu increased by 26.61 lakhs whilst that of Kashmir by 37.53 lakhs. Jammu's numbers include approximately, those 3 lakh people who migrated from Kashmir, so the differential increase in Kashmir's population was actually 13.9 lakhs. Looking at the national population growth rate, the data puts a question mark on the Census Organization?
5. Population of Kashmir as a percentage of the State's population increased by 3% between 1981 and 2011. It was 52% in 1981, 54% in 2001 and 55% in 2011.
6. Comparing 2001 and 2011, population of Kashmir went up by 14,11,000 or by 26% and of Jammu by 9,49,000 or by 21%.
7. Muslim population in J&K has increased in every decade. It was 64% of the total population in 1981, 67% in 2001 and 68% in 2011. Correspondingly population of Indian born Religions has fallen i.e. 36% (before start of insurgency), 33% and 31%.
8. Between 1981 and 2011 population of Muslims as a % of total population increased by 4.12% whilst that of Indian born Religions fell by 4.27%.
9. For 2001-11, the same figure was an increase of 1.34% for Muslims, and a decrease of 1.43% for Indian born Religions.
10. Considering Kashmir is 61% of Jammu's area, abnormal increase in number of voters raises questions!! (To be concluded)
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