| 2 decades, one warning: J&K’s climate, crops are changing | | | Sanjay Pandita
Early Times Report
JAMMU, Sept 4: Jammu and Kashmir’s own statistical records spanning two decades are offering important evidence of changing weather patterns, shifting cropping systems and growing climate vulnerability across the Himalayan region.
Quoting the latest Golden Jubilee edition of the Digest of Statistics 2025, published by the Planning Department, a senior bureaucrat and IAS officer Shahid Chouhdary provides a valuable statistical record of changes in climate and agriculture by placing historical data alongside the latest available figures. The data highlights five significant trends: changing rainfall patterns, rising food-grain production alongside shifts in crop choices, rapid expansion of horticulture, increasing vulnerability to extreme weather events, and the need for climate-resilient agricultural planning.
Rainfall patterns appear to be changing significantly. Jammu recorded 1,879 mm of rainfall over 92 rainy days in 2005, compared with 1,470 mm over 69 rainy days in 2025. Srinagar, too, witnessed a decline in rainy days, from 72 in 2005 to 66 in 2025. At the same time, Srinagar’s January maximum temperature touched 11.7°C, a level comparable to figures recorded in the early 2000s.
The changing distribution of rainfall, coupled with warmer winters, could have important implications for snow accumulation, soil moisture and water availability, particularly in the Himalayan ecosystem.
Agricultural production, meanwhile, has increased but the composition of crops has also changed. Total food-grain production rose from around 15.0 million quintals in 2004-05 to a projected 19.4 million quintals in 2024-25. Wheat production increased by about 43 per cent, while paddy yields rose by nearly 28 per cent.
However, the gains have not been uniform across crops. The area under maize has declined by around 12 per cent, while pulses have weakened. Saffron production has also witnessed a dramatic decline, falling by nearly two-thirds. The figures indicate a gradual transformation in the region’s cropping pattern, influenced by changing climatic and economic conditions.
Horticulture presents an even more striking picture. The area under apple cultivation has increased by about 60 per cent, while production has nearly doubled to around 2.1 million tonnes. However, the expansion has been accompanied by growing climatic risks. Studies have documented the movement of apple cultivation towards higher altitudes as winter chilling requirements become increasingly difficult to meet at lower elevations.
The devastating floods of September 2014 also demonstrated the vulnerability of the sector. Apple production fell by nearly one-third in a single season, highlighting how extreme weather events can wipe out years of agricultural gains.
The impact of extreme weather was even more visible in food-grain production. In 2014-15, food-grain output fell to around 10.5 million quintals, sharply lower than the levels recorded in preceding years, following the unprecedented floods.
The emerging pattern underlines the need to build greater resilience in agriculture through better data, early-warning systems, crop insurance, improved storage and climate-adaptive farming practices.
The broader Himalayan context makes these changes particularly significant. Rising temperatures and accelerating glacier loss are altering the region’s hydrological systems, with potential consequences for agriculture, water security and communities downstream.
Against this backdrop, experts and policymakers need to focus on water accounting, revival of springs and spring-sheds, development of altitude-appropriate crop varieties, community-based early-warning systems and risk-linked credit and insurance mechanisms for farmers.
The statistical digest itself cannot halt climate change, but its long-term data provides an important evidence base for understanding how the region is changing. Making these changes visible through reliable statistics can help governments, farmers and communities prepare for the environmental and agricultural challenges ahead. |
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