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| COVID-19: FLATTENING THE CURVE | | |
Dr. Parveen Kumar, Dr. D. Namgyal
World today is on the brink. The highly contagious corona virus called as COVID-19 has rattled the mankind. Lakhs of peoples have died across the globe and millions are suffering from it. It is very deadly in nature as its spread is mainly from person-to-person. That is, when people are in close contact with one another, or through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes. Countries like Italy, Spain, Korea, Germany, France, United Kingdom and the United States have already lost many lives to this deadly virus. The John Hopkins University that tracks corona virus patients have reported more than 71,000 deaths in United States of America and about 12 lakh have tested positive in the country.
In Asia and the Pacific, the impact of COVID-19 has been tremendous due to the high concentration of people, economic activities and resource consumption. In the country too, more than 50,000 peoples are corona positive and more than 2000 have dies do far. Seeing the highly contagious nature of the virus, the Primeminister of the country announced lockdown in the country on March 25 which is still going on. The country has however been divided into four zones viz. Red zone, Orange zone, Green zone and Containment Zone. Depending upon the number of cases in a district, the district has been put into the respective zone. In the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir, the whole of Kashmir Division has been under red zone and in Jammu division District Jammu, Samba and Kathua have been placed in red zone. An indicator of the virus’s spread is the fatality rate, defined as the percentage of the total number of infected persons who eventually die. Amitabh Kant. CEO of NITI Aayog has sometimes back tweeted that India’s share in deaths around the world due to the virus stood at 0.5%. However on May 1, data from John Hopkins University placed India’s fatality rate the number of deaths either per 100 confirmed cases at 3.3%. This is much lower than every Western country, including Germany, which stands at 4.1%. But, it is higher when compared to our South Asian neighbors’, Pakistan (2.3%) and Bangladesh (2.1%).
Among a series of measures the country went for containing the spread of the virus were social distancing, sanitation, isolation, quarantine, and treatment of the affected. All this was done to flatten the curve. Flattening the curve refers to the curve of this epidemic showing rise in the no. of cases over a period of time. It is a public health strategy introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic. It is a visual representation of the number of infected people needing health care over time (Fig.1). During an epidemic, a health care system can break down when the number of people infected exceeds the capability of the health care system to take care of them. Flattening the curve means slowing the spread of the epidemic so that the peak number of people requiring care at a time is reduced, and the health care system is not overwhelmed. Measures such as social distancing and stay at home are intended to reduce and delay the no. of active cases reaching a peak. Time gained through such flattening of the curve can thus be used to reduce the line of healthcare capacity to meet the growing no. of corona positive cases. Non-pharmaceutical interventions such as hand washing, social distancing, isolation and disinfection reduce the daily infections thereby flattening the epidemic curve. Having more people sick at one time puts more strain on our health care system. Stretching these resources out over time, rather than using them all up at once, means we can treat more people and ultimately save lives. The graph below shows a tall narrow curve (red in colour) and a short wide curve (light grey in colour). Through the graph is a line that shows how many sick people U.S. hospitals can treat. The tall curve goes above the line. That means too many people are sick at one time: The health care system of a country does not has enough hospital beds for all the people who will need treatment. The flatter curve shows what happens if the spread of the virus slows down. The same number of people may get sick, but the infections happen over a longer span of time so that hospitals can treat everyone. This is what actually what is the purpose of flattening the curve means and for what it is meant.
Flattening the curve of pandemic
The flattening curve also depends upon the rate of testing and the testing rate is the number of tests as a percentage of a country’s population. It is here pertinent to mention that curve will definitely flatten as we reduce testing. The less we test, the lower the numbers and the flatter the curve. According to the figures published by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), by March 30, the number of tests had increased by 68% over a five-day period. In the five days after March 30, it increased by 108% indicating an increase in the pace of testing. However, by April 9, the number of tests had only increased by 81% indicating the rate of conducting new tests was slowing. It’s around this time that the curve of new COVID-19 cases also purportedly began to flatten. By April 14, the testing growth rate had further dropped to 69% and then to 57% by April 19. When the government tests less and less, another way to understand the virus’s spread is through the percentage of people tested who come up positive. This figure, which stood at 1.33% on March 20 when India had not conducted many tests, shot up to 4.59% by April 19, when the total number of tests had also increased. States which are more disciplined in ensuring lockdown and following social safety measures have shown very good results. A report of the Union health ministry revealed that the doubling time of cases in Assam, Telangana and Himachal Pradesh, among other states, was much better than the national average at 59, 70.8 and 191.6 days, respectively.
Countries like South Korea worked on the strategy of Tracing, Testing and Treatment and have been successful in controlling this epidemic. The respective governments at the centre as well as state level are doing their best but it is ultimately our own responsibility to follow all the measures, come forward and get ourselves tested and treated if found positive for the virus. |
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