Omkar Dattatray
Bihar assembly election is important in more than one way and the outcome of this state elections will have great impact on 2029 general elections and it will in all certainty determine the fate of NDA/BJP in the Lok Sabha polls which are more than three years away. The Bihar assembly election is also important in the sense that it will be the first election after Operation Sindoor and all eyes are set on the upcoming assembly elections in Bihar. The 2025 Bihar legislative Assembly election for all 243 seats is scheduled to be held on October or November 2025.Bihar assembly election is a high- stake poll because of the following, five factors and let me underline these five important factors which will impact these state elections. As the race to win the Bihar election begins, here are five key factors that make the 2025 assembly polls important. Bihar’s top political leaders –Nitish kumar, Tejashwi Yadav and the new entrant Jan Suraaj Party chief Prashant Kishore – have started setting the tone for the upcoming elections as suspense grows over seat-share formulas and the chief minister’s face. After Operation Sindoor ,this will be the first election in the country. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was in Bihar on May 29 and inaugurated a slew of projects, The assembly elections in Bihar are expected to be held in October-November this year. The main battle is likely to be between NDA and Mahagathbandn .However ,a pre-poll opinion survey suggests that Prashant Kishore may gain some popularity.The five key factors which will impact Bihar state polls are as under— 1-First election after Operation Sindoor—The Bihar election 2025 will be the first election the country will witness after Operation Sindoor, which was launched on May 7 by the Indian armed forces in response to the April 2022 Pahalgam attack. Will the timing of the election prove beneficial for the ruling NDA ?-As speculations mount, the BJP and the Congress have traded barbs over the ‘politicisation of Operation Sindoor”. Congress leader Jairam Ramesh accused the BJP of politicising Operation Sindoor when reports had surfaced that PM Modi would meet the chief ministers of NDA -ruled states over Operation Sindoor. Modi then met the chief ministers of NDA ruled states. Jairam Ramesh has said,’’ What is the mistake of the CM’s of Karnataka, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, HP, Punjab, and J&K? 2—Prashant Kishore’s entry—Best known as a political consultant and strategist, Prashant Kishore has vowed to contest and win the Bihar election 2025 .This time ,he will not make strategies but test the waters himself. Last May, Prashant Kishore had exuded confidence that his Jan Suraaj Party would win Bihar ‘’on its own” in 2025. He had said in an interview with India Today,” Jan Suraaj will contest all 242 assembly seats and will come to power with majority. However, his newly launched Jan Suraaj Party, failed to make an impact in the by-polls in Bihar. Candidates of the Prashant Kishore -led group lost deposits in all but one seat in November 2024. Kishore, however, had then brushed off concerns about the poll outcome, highlighting the fact that his party won 10 percent of the total votes polled in the four seats. Besides, in a significant political development in Bihar ahead of the assembly elections, former union minister Ram Chandra Prasad Singh has merged his political outfit, Aap Sabki Awaz -ASA, with the Jan Suraaj Party. 3—Election debut of Nitish Kumar’s son amid health concerns? Speculations are rife that Nishant kumar, the son of Bihar CM Nitish Kumar, may contest the 2025 Bihar polls from Harnaut constituency. The rumours started after JDU supporters put up a poster outside the party office in Patna in support of CM Nitish Kumar’s son Nishant Kumar. The posters reportedly read ‘Bihar ki maang, sun liye Nishant, bhut bhut dhanyawaad [Nishant, thank you very much for listening to the demands of Bihar.’’ Reports about Nishant kumar’s poll debut surfaced as opposition leaders raised concerns about his father Nitish Kumar’s health, Prashant Kishore said earlier,” Nitish Kumar is physically tired and mentally unfit.” RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav also once referred to Nitish Kumar as a ‘’tired’’ chief minister. On Nitish Kumar’s birthday Tejashwi, took a jibe, saying,’’A 15-year old vehicle does not run, so why should a 20 -year -old government.? 4-Popularity of Nitish Kumar, Tejashwi Yadav ,Prashant Kishore---Several opinion polls suggest that RJD chief Tejashwi Yadav is the top choice for the next Bihar chief minister. One of the opinion polls revealed that while the popularity of Yadav and Nitish Kumar declined, that of Prashant Kishore rose in six months. The C-Voter survey, accessed by Mint,suggested that Tejashwi Yadav was the most preferred candidate to be the next chief minister of Bihar,followed by Prashant Kishore , making Nitish Kumar as the third choice.5—Nitish’s ‘pendulum swings ‘It was only last year that Nitish Kumar switched alliances for the fifth time. It was just before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections when Nitish kumar snapped ties with RJD-Mahagathbandan and joined hands with the BJP. According to the Inkinsight opinion poll ,47.5 per cent of those polled believed that jumping ships before elections may have hurt Nitish’s Kumar’s credibility ‘’to some extent,’’ while around 26.6 per cent believed Kumar lost credibility to a large extent. Around 25.9 per cent said it did not impact his credibility. The C -Voter survey also suggested that “pendulum swings” by Nitish Kumar in the last 10 years may have taken a toll on the Bihar CM’s ‘’credibility and popularity.’ ’Apart from caste, four distinct -two behavioural and two based on poll arithmetic -are likely to decide the political fate of Bihar. As Bihar heads into its crucial assembly elections later this year, the political landscape is marked by shifting alliances, voter expectations, and personality driven leadership. Here, are six key factors that will significantly influence the outcome of the 2025 Bihar Assembly polls.1 Alliances and seat sharing –Alliance arithmetic will be central to electoral success. Both NDA and INDIA bloc face challenges in smooth coordination ,especially in seat-sharing arrangements, particularly in seat-sharing arrangements.Effective vote transfer between partners will be central for converting alliances into victiories.2—Caste Calculation still rule—Despite increasing emphasis on development, caste remains a decisive factor in Bihar politics. Electoral strategies are deeply shaped by community-based mobilization. The NDA will aim to consolidate OBC and EBC support. RJD ,traditionally reliant on Yadav -Muslim votes ,must expand its reach to other castes to compete effectively.3 –Nitish Kumar’s Governance track record---Chief minister Nitish Kumar’s political legacy and administrative record remain central to the election narrative. However, concerns over his health have raised doubts about his ability to continue leading.4—Modi factor and national issues—The BJP will rely heavily on PM Modi’s popularity and central government welfare schemes to boost its chances.5—Youth and first time voters—With a substantial youth population, first -time and young voters could be decisive in close contests. Their primary concerns include job creation, quality education ,and opportunities within the state to curb migration. Last but not the least is credible chief Ministerial faces---Leadership perception is likely to play a more prominent role in 2025 than in previous elections. With Nitish Kumar’s future uncertain, voters may prioritise the next potential CM over just party ideology. Figures like Tejashwi Yadav and Prashant Kishore stand to benefit if voters seek a fresh leadership alternative. In, brief Bihar Assembly elections in 2025 will be shaped by a complex blend of alliance calculus, caste politics, governance perception, and youth engagement. As Bihar balances between legacy politics and aspirational change, the parties that manage to present a clear, credible, and cohesive vision will likely emerge on top.
The author is a columnist, social, KP activist & Freelancer |
