| In numbers game, the divide and rule policy | | | Gautam Mukherjee | 3/20/2015 11:31:02 PM |
| Given its minority position in the Rajya Sabha, it is imperative for the Modi Government to garner some of the putative Opposition support on a consistent basis. The Centre can offer inducements, of course
The arithmetic is compelling. The 542-seat Lok Sabha plus the 245-member Rajya Sabha
make 787. The NDA has 335 in the Lok Sabha, including a somewhat tenuous Shiv Sena
with 18 seats. The Shiv Sena, of course, is still smarting from the humbling it had to endure from the electorate in its home State of Maharashtra, and thereby being reduced to a junior partner in the coalition Government there. The problem to all legislative success for this Government is in the Rajya Sabha. The BJP on its own has just 46 seats there, where a majority calls for 123. Counting the Telugu Desam Party, the Shiromani Akali Dal, the AIADMK, and somewhat hopefully, the BJD too, but minus the Shiv Sena's three seats, it comes to 73. The total of 408 is amply over the joint-sitting majority figure required of 394. But take out the 18 Shiv Sena seats in the Lok Sabha, and the total falls to 390, and is in need of some new supporters - perhaps the BJD, which has 20 in the Lok Sabha?
But since the BJD feels somewhat threatened by the BJP in its home State of Odisha, its support can be a little grudging. The SP and the BSP with 15 and 10 seats respectively in the Rajya Sabha, could, one or both, come to the rescue. But again, they too feel threatened by the BJP in their home State of Uttar Pradesh, and are also rivals.
The ruling TMC in West Bengal, firmly in the opposition alongside the Congress, the CPM, the CPI, and the JD(U), is in a near panic due to inroads the BJP has made in its home state. The JD(U) and the RJD combine in Bihar feels likewise.
But most irksome and frustrating for the Government's floor managers, is the fact that what would have been a shoo-in if a joint-sitting is called, is not so certain when an NDA ally or two decide to play plays ducks and drakes. So, it is imperative to garner some of the putative Opposition support on a consistent basis. The Centre can offer inducements, of course. The AIADMK has already proved itself amenable during the insurance Bill vote. The BJD by walking out during the same voting, can perhaps be persuaded towards a broader commitment. The SP and the BSP may not refuse to cooperate, given the right incentives.The hardcore opposition to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's plans come from the Congress with its 44 seats in the Lok Sabha and 67 in the Rajya Sabha, the JD(U) and the RLD where the Nitish Kumar/Lalu Prasad combine is viscerally opposed to Mr Modi, Ms Banerjee's TMC, and the Left parties.
The head winds to the progress of the Indian economy now consist of the unfavourable numbers in the Rajya Sabha, in tandem with developments in the world's number one economy in the US. The latter can affect foreign investment sentiment that has been very encouraging since late 2013. This will, of course, apply to emerging markets in general, including India, as international and US money flows back to the safety and trust of the US from its trading posts overseas.But since the Indian economy is picking up speed thanks to the sharp cut in its oil import costs, it will continue to receive healthy investment, but basically from those emerging market funds ear-marked for it. The US might, it is said, raise interest rates to 0.25 per cent to start with in June 2015, just around the corner, though other observers think it will be put off till December. But the US dollar is strengthening sharply right now, probably in anticipation, and the rupee is getting weaker.
There is, however, no sharp FII sell-off in the stock market, and no slow-down in fresh investments either. Presently, the investments in the equity and debt markets combined are the highest ever, in the region of $50 billion. And, unlike in early 2013, the Indian economy is growing. Volatility is, however, the order of recent days in the stock market, with some analysts predicting a correction of up to 20 per cent. The foreign investor has greater faith in Mr Modi's ability and experience, to push through his reforms, than many domestic observers, in fact. The home scenario, in contrast, seems consumed by emphasis on the divisive politics of the Hindutva fringe in the Sangh parivar. It is imperative, though, to break the legislative gridlock in Parliament in a predictable manner. The Government must break the so-called Opposition unity of the kind that added remarks to the Prime Minister's reply to the President's address recently. This should not be too onerous a task, because the fragmented Opposition has nothing in common except political opportunism and a vaguely socialist bias.
The Modi Government, mindful of the socialists and their potential to create political havoc, has been careful to steer a moderate course through the shoals and rapids. It retains almost all of the UPA's welfare programmes, even as it tries to get infrastructure and manufacturing up and running to boost GDP and create millions of new jobs. Circumstances have now turned positive. The WPI index has fallen over two per cent minus making a case for an accelerated interest rate cut regime. The NPA's of the banks are humongous, it is true, but that's mostly due to stalled infrastructure projects (several hundred in number). If these are re-started, the NPAs will reduce substantially. The Government is still trying to process legislation via the normal Lok Sabha/Rajya Sabha route despite formidable challenges. This is with a view to include the opinions and the objections of the Opposition. The Modi Government principally wants to promote greater federalism, and seems committed to the parliamentary process.
It is not keen on going in haste to joint-sittings, because it smacks of rail-roading the Opposition. But having said that, it is apparent that the Congress in particular and others in general are trying to resurrect their dwindling political fortunes by a maximum of filibustering, street dharnas and shrill complaint.This is all very democratic, but given its extremely corrupt track record, the Congress cannot be allowed to derail the legislative and administrative agenda of the government. And so, if a joint-sitting it must be, so be it.
Indeed, there is merit in passing a number of key laws, such as the land acquisition Bill, that will kick-start the second stage of reforms pending since 1991, in a bunch, and as soon as possible.Once this is done, the resultant momentum in the economy should also enlarge the Government's political space. The final result may be to render the obstruction of the Congress and some others ineffective. This could be a net benefit, but it will have to be hard won.
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