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| Will Modi Govt scrap Indus Water Treaty ? | | | Asif Iqbal Naik
Early Times Report
Jammu, Feb 16: The Government of India has withdrawn status of Most Favoured Nation (MFN) from Pakistan following a terror attack on a CRPF convoy at Lethpora in south Kashmir's Pulwama district. Now it remains to be seen whether the Modi government would scrap the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan or not?
The Indus Water Treaty based on water sharing agreement between the India and Pakistan signed in Karachi on September 19, 1960 by Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and President of Pakistan Ayoob Khan is taking heavy toll of Jammu and Kashmir economy as Pakistan continuously raised the objections on construction of power project on river Chenab due to which the state suffered massive losses on account of power generation as Pakistan continuously demanded reducing the height of dams like they did in case of 450 MW state own Baglihar Power Project, but the same demand falls flat after Pakistan lost the case before world bank where he ( Pakistan) lodged the complaint against India.
The Indus system of rivers comprises three eastern rivers - Sutlej, Beas and Ravi flows from Pakistan Punjab to India and three western rivers - Indus, Jhelum and Chenab rights has been in return had been given to Pakistan. As per the details available with "Early Times" the Pakistan time and again has raised objections over the construction of power projects in Chenab basin and the progress on account of the construction of these projects suffered badly due to continuous interference of the Pakistan Government.
Indian Government plans to go ahead with the Baglihar Hydropower Project on the Chenab River in J&K has evoked opposition from Pakistan which claims that the project puts the World Bank-brokered Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960, the only successful treaty between the two arch-rivals, at risk. While Pakistan claims the project to be in contravention of the IWT provisions, the J&K Assembly passed a resolution on March3, 2003 asking New Delhi to reconsider the IWT to safeguard the interests of the State. The resolution stated that the IWT was discriminatory as the rights over waters of three rivers of the State - Jhelum, Chenab and Indus - were with Pakistan and India had to seek permission for any construction plans on these rivers. The failure of the three-day (4-6 January 2005) foreign secretary-level talks on the Baglihar project held in Islamabad led Pakistan to shoot a letter to the World Bank asking it to resolve the dispute with India. However, the World Bank responded on January 19, 2005 saying that though it is a signatory to the Treaty, it is not the guarantor for the IWT. The Bank has also said that it is for India and Pakistan to appoint a neutral expert for resolving the problem.
The Baglihar Project Negotiations between India and Pakistan during 1951-1960 held under the supervision of the World Bank resulted in the signing of the IWT on 19 September 1960. This is the only treaty between the two arch rivals that has worked effectively for over six decades and is, at times, cited by international funding institutions, as an illustration of cooperation between the two hostile neighbours.
Apart from objecting to the project design of the BHP, Pakistan has expressed opposition to the Tulbul navigation project, Sawalkote Hydroelectric Project, Rattle Power Project, 1000 MW Pakal-Dool and the Kishanganga Hydroelectric Project, all located in J&K.
As per the details available with "Early Times", the government of Pakistan after cancelling of National Security Level talks with India rejected the offer of government of India to hold bilateral talks on the hydro power projects viz 850 MW Rattle HEP constructed on River Chenab at Drabshala Tehsil of Kishtwar District and 330 MW Krishan Ganga HEP constructed on Krishan Ganga, a tributary of river Jhelum in Bhandipora District of Jammu and Kashmir and decided to move for 3rd party arbitration thus will cause further delay in start of construction work on the Rattle power project. The Pakistani government has raised the objection on the design of the power projects, saying they will obstruct the flow of water to a degree that violates the Indus Water Treaty, signed between the two countries on sharing the water of Indus river tributaries including Chenab and Jhelum rivers.
The objection raised time and again by the Pakistan government over the construction of its own power project costs heavily to the state government from time to time including at the time of construction of 450 MW Baghliar power project which escalates the construction cost of the project by several hundred crorers. After fighting for several years, the 3rd party arbitrator upheld the design of Baghliar power project with minor modification that includes reduction in Dam height by one meter.
The verdict by Raymond Lafitte, a Swiss national and professor at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne, had ended 'all uncertainties' and the 450 MW project on the Chenab river becomes the reality and was later inaugurated by former PM Manmohan Singh in 2007. Former J&K CM G N Azad term the verdict as a 'moral victory' for the country.
Pakistan had opposed the project on the ground that it will divert water away from its territory. Two years ago, it had unilaterally approached the World Bank - the third party to the 1960 Indus Water Treaty between India and Pakistan.
Lafitte gave a clean chit to the project but conceded one of the objections raised by Pakistan, as he asked India to reduce the dam's height, originally proposed to be 144.5 metres, by one-and-a-half metre.
As per the reports, the average annual flow of waters in the eastern rivers is estimated to be around 33 Million Acres Feet (MAF) whereas it is 135 MAF in the western rivers. The Pakistani contention over the BHP relates to the Article V of the IWT which relates to the compensation to be paid by India to Pakistan towards the latter's losses incurred during the construction of water drawing projects on the western rivers in lieu of water supplies for irrigation canals in Pakistan which were dependent on the water flow from the eastern rivers. The IWT allowed Pakistan to construct a system of replacement canals to carry water from the western rivers into those areas in West Pakistan that were earlier dependent for their irrigation supplies on water from the eastern rivers. The Indian contention in this regard is that since India has already paid its contribution of 62,060,000 pounds to the World Bank towards compensation to Pakistan under this clause, therefore, the Article V is no more valid. But Pakistani contention is that the IWT had imposed some restrictions on India over the usage of waters of the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab. Therefore, New Delhi cannot alter the flow on any of these rivers.
In the years after the IWT, Pakistan built the Mangla and Tarbela dams and several other storage facilities on Indus, Jhelum and Chenab. India also embarked on a series on construction projects including dams and barrages on the Ravi, Sutlej and Beas rivers. While these projects did not lead to any serious differences between the two neighbours, the BHP is opposed by Pakistan which claims that India is attempting to divert the water flow into Pakistan through this project.
The J&K government had sought counter-guarantees from the Centre for implementing major hydel power projects in the State. However, due to a delay in the sanctioning of such guarantees.
The BHP tap around 7,000 cusecs of water of Chenab for irrigation purposes in the short-term beside it meet around one-third of the total power requirements of J&K.
J&K is reported to have about 15,000 MW of power potential. In the past two decades, investments of over Rs. 4000.00 crores have already been made in the power sector. During 1997-98 to 2001-2002, investments of Rs. 1,400 crores were made which were markedly higher compared to previous years.
The PCIW, established under the IWT, includes experts on water and power from both countries who meet annually in India and Pakistan alternately for exchanging documents relating to the sharing of common water resources of the Indus. Though it is clear that the IWT's greatest achievement is that it is the only treaty that has withstood India-Pakistan hostility and also depoliticised the water issue to a large extent, the treaty needs to be amended taking into consideration the present requirements of the Indian state of J&K.
Sundeep Waslekar, President of the Strategic Foresight Group, in his work 'The Final Settlement writes, "The Pak army leadership is keen on ensuring water supply to Punjab at the cost of Sindh. Senior officers, including General Pervez Musharraf, have purchased land in Punjab."
"There is a direct conflict between and people of Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan wants the Kashmir Valley and part of Jammu to be able to build dams to divert rivers for Punjab's benefit at the cost of Kashmiris," points out Waslekar.
Keeping in view of the above mentioned facts and figures-- Now it is a million dollar question-will Modi Government scrape Indus Water Treaty that is taking tool of JK's economy as well as India's progress towards self resilience in power generation. |
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