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| All 6 Parliament seats of J & K offers tough tussle | | Smaller parties can spoil the win of major political big wigs, voter turnout will be a key factor | | Asif Iqbal Naik
As the election fever rises with the passage of everyday, the smaller parties and neo-politicians out to claim their pie in the electoral cake, the trend has the potential of offsetting the overall calculations and even altering results of J&K's main stakeholders in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls, for that we have to wait and understand how the camel behaves in the biggest democratic dance of the world. Though the mandate is clearly fractured in the state, more so in Kashmir, there is every possibility that the smaller players can play a spoilsport to the extent that even results can have an impact. There are many players in Kashmir and also in Jammu who are out to prove their relevance to the society, but what matters in the end is the total voter turnout in the state as the same can make a difference on the outcome of the final result. Various political analysts believe that higher voter turnout in Kashmir means victory for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and similarly, the higher voter turnout in Jammu region increases the chance of victory of Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP). Overall on all six Parliamentary seats, the direct fight is in between ruling National Conference-Congress alliance verses BJP and PDP. The recent trends during election to 4 MLC seats under Panchayat quota gives an edge to PDP in Kashmir valley despite the fact that PDP losses both the seats to National Conference, courtesy the vote pools in Ladakh region where PDP has no base.
In Kashmir valley the direct fight on three Parliament seats is between two arch rivals, ruling National Conference and main opposition party PDP, but a key player like Engineer Abdul Rashid Sheikh who has recently floated a new political party named as Awami Iteehad Party (AIP) can play a spoil spot for either NC or PDP as Rashid has decided to contest election and has pitted himself against incumbent Member Parliament from Baramulla Shareef-ud-Din Shariq and PDP's stalwart leader Muzaffar Hussain Beigh, a former deputy Chief Minister.
As per the locals, poll analysts, Rashid has a strong backing in Langate which he represented as an MLA, beside his popularity has grown in areas Sopore, Handwara and in parts of Bandipora.
Both PDP and NC leadership through tried their best to garner the support of Rashid, but both parties fail to convince him.
The situation is not even different in Srinagar Parliament seat that has NC president Dr. Farooq Abdullah and this time, the context on this seat is between Dr. Farooq Abdullah and PDPs Tariq Hamid Karra, finance minister in Mufti led Congress-PDP government. As compared to 2009 election, what is different in 2014 election is that Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) who gains much popularity throughout the country has filed RTI activist turned politician, Raja Muzaffar from Srinagar seat and both NC as well as the PDP can feel a bit of heat. Other than Raja, a news paper owner Rashid Rahil who as per political pundits is not a big player like Raja Muzzafar, but can damage NC and PDP vote in South of Srinagar, while Raja in the north of the constituency. As per the election result of 2009, Dr Farooq Abdullah defeated his PDP rival Molvi Ifkikhaar Hussain Ansari with a margin of 30242 votes, which is not a big margin. In 2009 NC's Farooq Abdullah had polled 147035 and Ansari 116793 votes. The PDP said that Farooq's manage his win against Ansari only due to poll boycott and believes that in case the people of Srinagar had come for vote, the situation might be the different. The factors like bad governance, 2010 summer unrest followed by killing of over 110 youths, Afzal Guru hanging, Farooq Abdullah's "Kashmiri are Maha Chor" comment are the factors that might go against the NC President who were in power in the state since last three generations either by hook or crook. The political analysts believe that in that Srinagar constituency polled anything between 50 to 55 % or above, the defeat for NC President is certain. It is also believe that NC government presently in power will allow separatist leadership to go ahead with poll boycott campaign as it suits the NC leadership.
While moving down towards South Kashmir seat of Anantnag, the area is considered as strong bastion of PDP led by former Home Minister of India Mufti Mohammad Syed and his daughter Mehbooba Mufti who is also the President of PDP. In last election, PDP candidate Peer Hussain lost the election to NC's Mehboob Beigh by a margin of nearly 5000 votes. Understanding the travesty in past, PDP president Mehbooba Mufti who represent this seat in 2004 keeping in view of possible impact of ongoing Parliamentary election on upcoming Assembly elections in November this year has decided to pitch herself against NC's Mehboob Beigh. For Mufti Sayeed whose daughter is seeking election from the region, it is a larger ideological battle. He has been retaining the region for his party since 2002 and defending it to the extent that NC still has just one assembly segment to its credit. In fact, PDP has all the segments except the four - one with NC, two with Congress and one with CPI (M). As per the election result, Dr. Mehboob Baigh of NC polled 148317 votes against PDP candidate Peer Hussain who got 143093.
As per the political observers the fight on Anantnag Parliament seat is direct between PDP and National Conference, but added that CPI (M) MLA Yousuf Tarigami, who represents Kulgam in the state assembly for the last three consecutive terms, can play important role in win of either of the two candidates. Tarighami has yet to open its cards and it is likely that he extend his support to either of the two parties.
Coming out from valley fever, the enthusiasm among the various political players of Jammu region having two Parliamentary seats is not less than what we seen and observed in Kashmir valley. Even though NC is missing from the scene in Jammu as it has a coalition with Congress, the fight on two Jammu seats is between BJP, Congress and PDP. As far as PDP is concerned, the party has filed Yesh Pal Sharma for Jammu-Poonch-Rajouri seat and lesser known politicians Arshad Malik for Udhampur-Doda as its candidates.
Till recently the exit poll predicts two seats each to BJP & PDP while one seat each to Congress and National Conference, but the poll analysts believes that the situation has changed after Congress party rope in Union Health Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad to contest from Udhampur-Kathua-Doda seat which is also his home segment. Former Chief Minister and MLA from Bhaderwah has a strong base in eeriest while Doda District where Congress party has the representation on five Assembly segments out of six. The sixth Assembly segment is presently represented by Azad nephew and Minister of State for Home Sajjad Ahmed Kichloo.
Azad on this seat is facing tuff fight from BJP candidate Dr. Jatinder Singh who is ridding his luck on Modi wave and the same can be judged from Modi's two successful rallies one at Jammu's MAM Stadium and another one recently at Hiranagar. The political analysts believe that the crowd assembled at Modi's MAM Stadium rally was more than one lac, but many believe that the crowd is between 70000 to 80000. What is hurting the BJP on Udhampur-Kathua-Doda seat is the ticket to RSS backed Dr. Jatinder Singh over BJP's old hand Dr. Nirmal Singh who lost the 2009 to Congress candidate Dr. Lal Singh by a whisker.
The another hindrance for the BJP is their failure to motivate seventh rebels MLA as after hectic negotiation BJP manage to win the support of six MLA's back, could not manage the re-entry of two time MP Prof Chaman Lal Gupta, who has served Udhampur twice in Parliament and was MoS Defence in Vajpayee led NDA government. The BJP leadership feels that denial of ticket to Dr. Nirmal Singh did not make any effect on party polls and termed him (Dr. Nirmal Singh) as party's true soldier.
Other then Azad and Dr. Jatinder, Anil Gupta son of former BJP veteran Chaman Lal Gupta and Prof Bhim Singh, founder of the Panthers Party, can play a role of spoil spot on Udhampur seat, but the poll analysts were of the opening that both Anil Gupta as well as Bhim Singh will definitely make an impact on BJP votes as compared to Azad's vote bank. For Azad the situation is not different. The incumbent MP from Udhampur seat Chowdhary Lal Singh has turn rebel so as his supporters who had openly comes in support of BJP candidate. Though Lal Singh denied rebellion against Azad whom he termed as his elder brother, but Lal Singh is missing from the scene as he was not seen campaigning anywhere for Azad. On other hand side PDP candidate Arshad Malik too can play a spoil spot for Azad and can dent his Muslim vote bank as the party has make into roads in many parts of eeriest while Doda District which is presently under the influence of polarization particularly in wake of the aftermath of August 9 last year Kishtwar Communal violence.
On Jammu-Poonch-Rajouri seat, the contest is triangular between BJP's Jughal Kishore Sharma, Congress incumbent MP Madan Lal Sharma and PDP's Yesh Pal Sharma.
Madan Lal Sharma of Congress has a formidable position in Akhnoor, his home belt, while in other parts of the constituency; he (Madan Lal) has lost his grip, particularly on Muslim vote bank. Though both PDP and BJP candidates contesting against Madan Lal Sharma are non-Muslims, but PDP candidate has a strong edge and an appeal in Pir Panchal valley where PDP has worked substantially over the year. There is possibility of PDP's Yash Pal emerging second from the region and political analysts even did not rule out the situation like 1999 election when NC's Chowdhary Talib Hussain manage to win the seat for his party. Though in last election PDPs Tarlok Singh Bajwa managed to secured 93730 votes against Madan Lal's 382305, but this time the situation is entire different. The Jammu-Poonch-Rajouri seat has a vast chunk of refugee votes and this vote in past played an important role in Congress and NC win on this seat, but this time the refuge vote is much in favour of PDP's Yash Pal Sharma who himself is a Hindu from Pakistan. Even though Refugee United Front has fielded Labha Ram Gandhi from Jammu to counter Yash Pal Sharma, but it hardly makes an impact on Yash Pal Sharma's vote bank as he (Labha Ram) announced his support to BJP's Jughal Kishore Sharma.
The political Pamdits believes that high voter turnout between 65 to 70 % in Jammu and Samba District means victory for BJP and if anything less, the seat could go either way. As far as 6th Parliament seat of Ladakh is concerned, neither PDP nor BJP were even traced in this part of the state and the seat is likely to go into the kitty Congress candidate Tsering Samphel in case people of Leh or Kargil did not decide to file any independent candidate as the past practices an independent field by Leh or Kargil had won. |
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