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| All is not well in pdp | | | Prof. Kali Dass
Mufti Mohammed
Sayeed, former Union Home Minister of India founded Peoples Democratic Power (PDP) in 1998 with operating ideology of self-rule, as distinctly different from the issues of autonomy. It means PDP as political force came into existence as an alternative ideology to NC that ventured on Kashmiri vote bank on the name of autonomy. PDP captured power in the state in October 2002 Assembly elections along with ideologically close ally to Mufti, the Congress. Coalition broke during Congress tenure of 03 year power sharing when Gulam Nabi Azad was in chair as CM. PDP preferred to sit in opposition after 2008 assembly elections in view of it getting no clear mandate for governance. In 2014, a vertically regional split between two regions happened, PDP getting 28 assembly segments (all Muslims, only two from Jammu region that too ST's, Rajouri & Darhal) and BJP got 25 assembly segments from Jammu region (07 SCs 01 nominated female Hindu, 16 Hindus and lone Kalakote seat to ST). Socio-religiously & regionally fractured mandate compelled two fundamentally opposite ideologies to forge an alliance to run government in J&K under late Mufti Sayeed. The alliance heard a low pitch voice of dissent within PDP at that time also, two stalwarts Muzzafar Beigh & Tariq Hamid Karra reportedly were not in favor of the alliance but Mufti's stature compelled them to remain silent. Karra, after the death of Muft Sayeed defected to Congress.
Mufti died without clearly nominating political heir as well as any instructions to the founder members for running the PDP affairs. Beigh & Karra put down their weight and delayed government formation with BJP. In between a voice of dissent & revolt/breakage in PDP could also be sensed. Altaf Bukhari, the drop out Minister met BJP in Jammu. It was an alarming signal for Mehbooba Mufti, who otherwise was double minded in making coalition with BJP. Muzzafar & Karra had their own game planes. Ultimately PDP under Mehbooba Mufti formed government with BJP on 4th April, 2016. 11 ministers each from BJP-PDP took oath. Tariq Hamid Karra restrained from oath ceremony and Muzzafar Beigh left the venue while Nayeem Akther stood to take oath. Karra observed that Mehbooba Mufti is carrying three snakes above her shoulder, Altaf, Nayeem & Drabu. Beigh too was not happy on induction of last two in the cabinet. On 18th March, 2018 Haseeb Drabhu (Finance Minister & right hand of Mufti Sayeed) was shown the door on his controversial comments but reality was probably voice of dissent within old party war horses against Drabu. Altaf Bukhari was given coveted post of finance minister. Holy or unholy alliance came to an end on 19th June 2018, when BJP points man Ram Madhav abruptly announced breaking of alliance with PDP, blaming Mehbooba for all ill doings in the coalition governance. Ever since then the whatsapp players and few journalists have started making their own coalition governments by speculating defections in different political parties. The Congress high command put to rest all these whatsapp speculations by rejecting any coalition with PDP, Mehbooba was not far behind in announcing the same. Now with voice of dissent from Ansari team has created uproar within PDP. They are having more praise for BJP and blames against Mehbooba. The State assembly is in suspended animation, meaning thereby that any time the Governor can summon it and proposals for alternate government can be explored even if they are on the basis of horse trading. And for that PDP at this juncture is the most vulnerable political outfit, sensing repeated voices of discontent within it especially after the death of Mufti Sayeed.
Quite a large unhappy group in PDP can be a big problem to tackle. If sources are to be believed any split in PDP, can create big problems. There are speculations that about 5-6 PDP MLAs having back to back contact with Congress high command, but may be with a hope for mandate form congress in next assembly. Karra can play a role for such tie up using his old clout in PDP. Another speculation is that both BJP & NC can break 10-12 MLAs of PDP to create further problems for PDP. If we go by NC proposition (NC=15+PDP break way=12, come to 27), it shall not be in a position to form the government but definitely, these splinters can hope for mandate in the next elections. BJP with 25 MLAs and 12 break away PDP MLAs can make it to 37, 07 short of clear majority. Even Sajjad Lone cannot make the magic figure of 44 for BJP.
But going by the mood of general public in Kashmir, any above propositions shall be vehemently rejected by them. Similarly due to BJP acting as second fiddle in the previous coalition, such moves shall be wary for BJP. But in view of Assembly in suspended animation & not dissolved, sensing the mood of present day politicians who can alien with anybody anytime for personal power, there may be too many makes & breaks after Amarnath Yatra. In view of all these factors, it can be easily concluded that ALL IS NOT WELL IN PDP. |
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