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| Nitish’s ultimatum | | Will BJP embrace or ditch Modi? | |
BY setting the December for the BJP to name its prime ministerial candidate, Nitish Kumar has put to test his Janata Dal (United)'s 17-year-old relationship with its coalition partner. If the Bihar Chief Minister is apparently inching towards the point of no return, he has sound electoral reasons. For 15 years Lalu Prasad remained in power in Bihar with the support of Muslims, whom he won over after stopping the “rath yatra” in 1990 and arresting L.K. Advani. Though as the NDA’s Railway Minister, Nitish Kumar kept quiet when the 2002 Muslim massacre happened, he is now gunning for Narendra Modi to consolidate his vote bank among Bihar's minorities, accounting for 50 per cent of the electorate.
Nitish Kumar's speech at his party's national executive meeting on Sunday stood out as much for his anti-Modi tirade as his silence on the UPA. He did not raise the issue of his state's backwardness for getting free or cheap Central funds. However, he gave no hint of moving closer to the UPA before the elections either. That may be to save the JD (U) from the brunt of anti-incumbency and scams associated with the Congress-led coalition. Post-election, calculations may change.
Though a small state partner like the JD (U) is dictating terms to the national party, the BJP leadership is playing cautious. For some of the BJP leaders aspiring for the Prime Minister's chair, it makes sense to keep quiet now and wait for their own chance in case allies fail to reach a consensus over a divisive Modi. The BJP rank and file as well as party president Rajnath Singh are increasingly rallying behind Narendra Modi, whose prime ministerial ambitions are no longer subtle or subdued. The party leadership, however, will have to weigh the additional seats Modi's popularity in the urban middles class may bring for the party against those his candidature may scare away. The BJP has two options -- project Modi and lose Nitish Kumar or ditch Modi and stay with the JD (U). And neither is a happy one. |
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