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| Expectations from Sharif | | Real challenge lies in handling the Taliban | | S. Nihal Singh | 5/16/2013 12:50:58 AM |
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TWO aspects of the Pakistan election results
are worthy of note. One is, of course, the re
turn to power after 14 years of Mr Nawaz Sharif of the Muslim League (PML-N). The other is the hunger of the average Pakistani voter to have his say, despite threats and mayhem promised and often acted upon by the extremists.
No one can describe the elections as entirely free and fair because of a terror campaign aimed at the more liberal and secular parties such as the People’s Party of Pakistan, the National Awami Party and the MQM. They could campaign only furtively, if at all. On the other hand, the PML (N) and the newcomer PTI of the cricketer-turned politician Imran Khan had a free run.
Indeed, Mr Imran Khan’s electoral debut in national elections has been more than a footnote. He is nudging the PPP for second place and his call for “a new Pakistan” enthused many new young voters and considerable sections of women. His call for a “new Pakistan” was heard. He also did well in Khyber Pukhtunkhwa. Indeed, a regional split between the most populous Punjab province and the other provinces has been accentuated.
For Mr Sharif, his third stint as Prime Minister is a personal triumph because a man who was displaced in an Army coup, first imprisoned and then exiled for years in Saudi Arabia, is back in power. His nemesis, General Pervez Musharraf, was barred from contesting the election and is facing a string of serious charges in courts after his homecoming from self-exile. By the same token, Mr Sharif faces a mountain of challenges.
These challenges are primarily domestic, both in the economic field and in initiating a new policy towards the Taliban and in managing his relationship with the Army establishment. But the looming American withdrawal from Afghanistan next year imposes immediate priorities and he must balance the widespread anti-American sentiment in his country, particularly on the use of drones, with the obvious need for US money and support for receiving international financial help. If he makes the right moves towards India, it might help alleviate the acute power crisis crippling his country. In other words, Mr Sharif must hit the ground running.
The world will judge Mr Sharif’s opening gambit by how he approaches the Pakistani Taliban. It is all very well to pronounce, as he has, that the answer lies in talking to, not fighting, the extremists. There are several shades of the Taliban, a section rejecting the very concept of democracy Pakistani voters have chosen to endorse. While the Afghan Taliban have publicly refused to talk to Afghan President Hamid Karzai, dismissing him as a US puppet, how is the Pakistan variant to be induced to sit down to talk turkey?
Above all, Mr Sharif’s primary task is to build on the enthusiasm shown by voters in the democratic process, despite all the warts, to strengthen institutions. In a sense, the judiciary has been hyper-active, but other institutions a democratic state must rely on need to be strengthened. The civilian leadership’s equation with the Army establishment is still very much a work in progress and Mr Sharif’s own experience of the Kargil misadventure must serve as a warning. While the Army and its present chief, Gen Ashfaque Pervez Kayani, has allowed a change of leadership from one civilian dispensation to the other to happen for the first time, they are keen on guarding their dominant voice in relation to nuclear policy and in dealings with Afghanistan and India.
Mr Sharif has been making the right noises after proclaiming victory, promising to look ahead, rather than back, but his real test will come in being credible on the Pakistani Taliban and signalling a new beginning in putting his economic house in order. His strong suit is his reputation for getting things done, as a business magnate, and his centre-right leanings seem to chime with the mood of his people. He has sought to reach out to his political opponents, but Mr Imran Khan is less than satisfied with the conduct of the election.
There seems to be a realisation among large sections of Pakistanis that terrorist outfits encouraged and used by arms of the state such as the spy agency ISI and elements in the Army are biting the hand that has fed it. The difficulty is two-fold: you cannot suddenly put an end to the menace by turning off a tap as it were and there remain elements in the power centres still bent on employing extremists to needle India.
On balance, Mr Sharif’s return to power is a good omen, despite his somewhat ambiguous role over Kargil. For one thing, he is a known quantity and his basic instincts in seeking good trade relations with India predispose him towards a friendly trajectory. But in dealing with the complicated relationships in the post-divided subcontinent, there are no easy answers to questions burdened by the historical baggage peoples on the two sides of the dividing line carry. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh did well in congratulating Mr Sharif and inviting him to India to set the scene for the future.
Pakistanis will find it interesting to explore how deep the yearning for democratic processes is for their people.
Those in the cities and towns in the youth group and women obviously are for a liberal dispensation. But how real is democracy’s urge for the bulk of the rural voters?
Whatever their standing and circumstances, few would find arbitrariness in the conduct of those who govern attractive. But it would be foolish to underestimate the lure of extremist religious teachings and their ability to brainwash otherwise decent men and women. It is well established that madrasas of a certain kind breed tomorrow’s terrorists.
Mr Sharif’s challenges are as formidable as are the opportunities. He has had more than his share of suffering after he was inducted into politics by General Zia ul-Haq. If he can now become the redeemer for his country, he would have carved out an enviable place in his country’s history. Perhaps, he will be third time lucky.
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