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| Despite hectic campaigning, PDP failed in Jammu province | | Causes of Defeat | |
STARK REALITY
Rustam
JAMMU, Dec 7: The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) performed exceptionally well in Kashmir, notwithstanding the fact that it could not win even one of the two Legislative Council seats for which elections were held on December 3. It lost the election, but left none in any doubt that it would mar the poll prospects of the ruling National Conference (NC) in the next assembly elections as and when held. In the Kashmir province’s K-1 constituency, the PDP got 5911 votes out of the 16155 votes polled, as against 8596 votes the NC candidate got. The margin of defeat was 2675 votes. In the K-2 constituency, its candidate got 6094 votes, as against 8659 votes the Congress candidate got. The margin of defeat was 2565 votes. These margins of defeat cannot really be termed as huge considering the fact that the NC and the Congress contested the elections jointly.
The NC believes that it would decimate the PDP in the assembly elections by forging pre-poll alliance with the Congress party. It is unlikely to happen. Even if the NC succeeds in motivating the Congress high command as far as pre-poll alliance is concerned, it will only marginally change the Kashmir’s electoral scene. For, the support-base of the Congress party is rather limited in Kashmir which returns to the assembly as many as 46 members, more than fifty per cent. The NC election strategists are not that fool that they are not aware of the Congress’ strength in the Valley. The PDP has sufficient time at its disposal to convert the electoral scene in its favour. As for the NC, it would lose more and more support-base with each passing day. The reasons are obvious.
The situation as it prevails at present in the Kashmir Valley and the number of panchs and sarpanchs who voted for the PDP candidates are indications that the party has not only created for itself a stable and strong constituency in the Valley, but also expanded further its area of influence and activities by taking up the issues facing the people, as also by highlighting the acts of omission and commission committed by the ruling coalition comprising the NC and the Congress.
The problem for the PDP is Jammu province. Its top-ranking leaders had been organizing political activities across Jammu province, particularly since 2011. It held a number of conventions and public meetings some of which were largely attended. It also concentrated its energy on and devoted its attention to the erstwhile Doda district, which returns to the assembly six members, and Poonch and Rajouri districts, which return to the assembly eight members, besides focusing its attention on Jammu district, which returns to the assembly as many as eleven members. But the election results show that the PDP has not really clicked in these crucial areas. In none of the two Jammu constituencies, the PDP fared well. True that it emerged as number two in both the constituencies after the coalition candidates and relegated the BJP and the JKNPP to third and fourth positions, respectively. But it is also true that it could not get even 3000 votes in any of the two constituencies. In J-I constituency, its candidate could get only 2089 votes out of the 14874 votes polled, as against 9123 votes the Congress candidate got. And in J-2 constituency, its candidate got 2153 votes out of the 14812 votes polled, as against 9070 votes the NC candidate secured.
The PDP leadership cannot afford to appreciate the fact that it relegated the BJP and the JKNPP to the third and fourth position and that it emerged as number two party after the ruling coalition. To appreciate its performance would simply mean that its leadership has not appreciated the causes leading to its rather poor performance in the politically crucial Jammu province. No Kashmir party would be able to form government in the state without the support of Jammu legislators. Hence, it is imperative for its leadership to examine dispassionately the causes of its defeat. One of the causes is its insistence on self-rule. The people of Jammu province not only reject the politics of autonomy, but they also consider the self-rule document as a carbon-copy of the NC’s autonomy document.
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