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| Omar loosing ground in Ganderbal constituency; PDP's vote share 17 percent up | | MLC elections or pre-poll survey! | | Syed Junaid Hashmi
JAMMU, Dec 10: If recently held elections for four MLC seats from Panchayat quota are any indication, Chief Minister Omar Abdullah seems to have lost considerable ground in his Ganderbal constituency to opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
Viewed as pre-poll survey, MLC elections have shown steep decline in the vote share of National Conference (NC)-Congress coalition government in Ganderbal constituency. Unlike the year 2008, NC-Congress coalition together secured 53.98 percent votes while 42.51 percent village electorate voted for PDP. Coalition did boost of having decimated PDP in Kashmir valley but failed to realize that its vote share had slumped, noticeably in the high profile Ganderbal constituency.
Though their was some difference in vote share of the two PDP candidates in Ganderbal constituency yet in both the cases the percentage had shown considerable increase, when compared with PDP had got in the year 2008 assembly elections. Yasir Reshi got (213) 42.51 percent votes while Peer Mohammed Hussain polled (173) 34.53 percent votes of Panchayat members in Ganderbal district.
From the Chief Minister constituency, winning NC candidate Ali Mohammed Dar got 61.87 percent votes (310) while Ghulam Nabi Monga of Congress could secure just 54.09 percent votes (271). Statistics ordinarily reveal that coalition candidates, Monga and Dar, defeated PDP candidates with heavy margins in Ganderbal constituency. However, a thorough analysis reveals a stark reality of Chief Minister Omar Abdullah facing stiff competition from the opposition PDP.
Recollecting the past, Chief Minister Omar Abdullah had secured 41.49 percent of total votes polled during the 2008 Assembly elections. Sheikh Ishfaq Ahmed of Congress had got 20.28 percent votes while 20.85 percent electorate had reposed trust in PDP's Qazi Mohammed Afzal. Qazi had stood second while Congress candidate was third.
Comparing the present position with 2008 assembly elections, in the contest between Reshi and Monga, NC-Congress coalition has jointly managed 54.09 percent votes, a decline of around 7.68 percent. On the contrary, PDP's vote share has shown an increase of 21.66 percent. While in the Dar and Peer Hussain Contest, coalition's vote share has shown marginal decline. If the two votes are counted jointly, coalition has bagged 57.98 percent votes while PDP has all alone secured 38.52 percent votes.
This shows that on both the seats, Congress-NC coalition vote share has shown a decline of 3.79 percent while the PDP's vote share has jumped by 17.67 percent. It needs to be reiterated that the slump in vote share is alarming for the coalition government and especially for Chief Minister Omar Abdullah since 84.24 percent population of Ganderbal districts lives in rural areas. As per the census of 2011, total Ganderbal district population living in rural areas is 250,203 of which males and females are 134,064 and 116,139 respectively. |
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