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PDP cause of concern for NC-Cong alliance in Jammu region?
12/27/2012 11:53:14 PM
Early Times Report
Jammu, Dec 27: Though identity politics still holds the key in urban Jammu, however, time has thrown up new equations and issues those are likely to shape the future prospects of electoral politics and the immediate beneficiary seems to be the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) which is now emerging as the main opposition party in the region.
The growing popularity of PDP in Jammu is attributed to the secular outlook of the people of Jammu who, of course, still identify themselves with the regional aspiration and ideological locations but governance remains the main concern for them.
Senior Congress leaders in the Jammu region unhesitatingly admit that the floating vote bank which constitutes about 15 to 20% of the total electorate of the region has fallen in the laps of former Chief Minister and PDP patron Mufti Mohammad Sayeed for varying reasons. A section of Congress leaders including the sitting Ministers in Omar Abdullah led NC-Congress coalition Government observe that Mufti has not only created a space in Jammu urban while taking advantage of the disintegration of BJP but has even made inroads in Congress constituencies because the floating vote-bank which holds the key for electoral success and which is total secular in outlook was looking at PDP as the viable alternative.
According to political analysts, though the ratio of floating (secular) vote bank varies from one segment to another, it is substantially significant in some constituencies in Jammu. They opine that electoral college in some segments like Samba and Suchetgarh do not identify with the identity politics and these are the pockets where PDP can perform well. Then there are some pockets where 15 to 20% of the electorate is not essentially votary of identity politics and as such they do not find it difficult to shift their loyalty from ruling alliance to opposition PDP.
"By and large electoral politics in Jammu and Kashmir is dimensionally bi-polar and beauty of bi-polar politics has been that if you bag even 20% of the vote you will win but in certain cases if you even get 40% you won't get through," Ellora Puri teaching political science in Jammu University told Early Times. She said although identity politics in both the regions still occupies the centre-stage but people have started looking at the politics from a different perspective and there is a substantial constituency which has been rating the performance of successive political regimes and this is a encouraging sign of the politics in the State.
Political observers opine that non- performance of the ruling alliance on one hand and the failure of BJP in performing role of opposition has also given an edge to Mufti's PDP which has made an effective base in Jammu region. According to them PDP has proved its capability of challenging the ruling alliance in the 2014 electoral battle.
As for the Jammu city is concerned, where more than 50% residents are businessmen, development and peace has to be necessarily on agenda and in this context they too have developed equation with the opposition PDP which is again a good omen for that party.
The murmurs of dissent are soon to get a voice when the towns will go for Municipal elections when opposition will face the ruling alliance in an entirely different atmosphere with PDP having made effective inroads and the ruling NC-Congress facing erosion.
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