ET Report
jammu, Feb 6: With focus of coalition Government now on polls for MLC elections, 8 berths in the Upper House getting vacant by March , it has sent the political parties into flurry of activity, opposition PDP and two alliance partners NC and Congress having major stakes as per the electoral college for elections. Even as it depends on the nature of contest and number of notifications the coalition chooses to issue, a fair calculation in terms of votes in the electoral college gives PDP a strong edge and is all set to win two seats one each from Kashmir and Jammu region, comfortable victory on the former being a foregone conclusion. This, however, is subject to 'fair' process and conduct of polls contrary to the 'dirty' one coalition played during LC polls in April 2011 while it made legislators to indulge in cross voting on the floor. There is also a rider this time, the Government itself having brought amendment in the Legislation last year that provides for open voting instead of secret ballot that was hitherto in practice.
While the seats 4 each from Kashmir and Jammu so far retained by these parties are getting vacant , it is one reserved seat from Doda which is also for sure to be bagged by the alliance, in all likelihood may go to Congress kitty as indications prevail in the political scenario at present. As for the 4 seats from Valley, while three as per the number of votes in the electoral college of 89 votes of MLAs , three would again go the alliance partners as per their arrangement and agreement for the seats, fourth seat would be comfortably bagged by PDP, the party having more than requisite number of votes by its side for victory .
However, the actual interest remains for the three seats in Jammu from where NC , Congress and PDP has one each as outgoing member upon completion of their tenures (Devinder Rana of NC, Murtaza Khan of PDP and Naresh Gupta of Congress). While the two seats would be easily won by the coalition, there is likelihood of keen fight for the third one on which PDP has strong stakes and chances as well. While all depends on how other opposition parties like BJP with four members, party's group of 7 led by Prof Chaman Lal Gupta and Panthers party with its 3 legislators would conduct themselves in the polls. Political observers have it to say that there are remote chances for them to support coalition , ideologies being different , none of the party or its legislators can afford or indulge in cross voting on account of open ballot this time. Moreover, any such act would prove quite damaging for any party or legislator, Assembly elections being not far away.
The contest on the third seat, from all probabilities and political assessment is going to be in favour of PDP , in both the cases whether BJP and PP participate in the polling by way of fielding their own candidate, or supporting any party in the contest, and even if they decide to stay away from the polls. |
