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| BJP's rightful king | | | S.K. Sinha
A democracy without a viable Opposition degenerates into one-party rule, subverting the polity. Initially, we had one-party rule for long. Jawaharlal Nehru, a true democrat in letter and spirit, also played the role of the Leader of Opposition. Under his daughter, Indira Gandhi, democracy became an autocracy and also hereditary. During the Emergency, democracy got totally eclipsed. Thereafter, four short-lived coalitions came to power. The V.P. Singh government of squabbling leaders fell in less than a year. The other three governments of Chandra Shekhar Singh, H.D. Deve Gowda and I.K. Gujral remained in power for few months only, with outside support from the Congress. They fell when the Congress withdrew support. Thus, one-party rule lasted for over half a century. In 1998 under the leadership of L.K. Advani, the BJP raised its tally in the Lok Sabha from two to 182. That was the harbinger of the end of one-party rule.
The prospects of political parties in parliamentary elections have been affected by our expanding middle class, now increasingly going to polling booths. Our two main political parties are the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The regional parties are dominant in their states without much presence outside. When national political parties do not have an absolute majority or are not close to it, they have to rely on support from regional parties. Thus, the latter's bargaining power increases. They can even blackmail the ruling party.
At the time of Independence, the middle class was only two per cent; now it is 37 per cent. Forty per cent urban constituencies are now dominated by the middle class. This had a bearing on the 2009 general election and will again in 2014. The BJP's opposition to the Indo-US nuclear deal, repeatedly blocking the functioning of Parliament and the then booming economy, weighed in favour of the Congress. The middle class wants good governance, economic development, inflation controlled and more jobs for the youth. It has little interest in Hindutva. The clout of the middle class was noticeable during the Anna Hazare movement and the December 16 gangrape in Delhi. The mishandling of these movements showed lamentable lack of good governance by the Congress.
Television, instant communications, higher literacy rates and greater awareness have affected the rural constituencies. Repeated mind-boggling scams have led to disgust with the Congress, compounded by rising prices, failing economy, lack of good governance and dynastic rule. Rahul Gandhi's anointment at Jaipur made his de facto leadership de jure.
the NDA is limited because of the intense propaganda against him for the 2002 Gujarat carnage. He should be made responsible for the BJP's election committee for campaign and selection of candidates in the coming state Assembly elections. If the party does well in them he should be the obvious choice for Prime Minister from the BJP. But if it does not, Mr Advani should be the choice. He has greater acceptability in most non-BJP and non-Congress political parties. Mr Modi could then be inducted as deputy Prime Minister. The examples of Sardar Patel in the Congress government in the '40s and Mr Advani in the NDA government are relevant. Mr Modi has his age in his favour. He could be Prime Minister in a later BJP government, or earlier if Mr Advani moves to Rashtrapati Bhavan in 2017.
The writer, a retired lieutenant-general, was Vice-Chief of Army Staff and has served as governor of Assam and Jammu and Kashmir. |
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