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| PDP has an edge over NC in Srinagar LS seat | | |
Early Times Report
SRINAGAR, May 1: The famous couplet of the celebrated Urdu poet Mir Taqi Mir, " Ulti hogayi sab tadbeerein kuch ne dawa ne kaam kiya" hold good for National Conference. Despite all efforts, retaining the Srinagar seat seems to be difficult for the party as the main opposition PDP has made deep inroads in all three districts of Budgam, Srinagar and Ganderbal-the fact admitted by the top brass of NC privately. What could be termed as a shock for NC this time is that even boycott has not benefitted that party at all. According to the political watchers 60 to 65 % of the polled votes in eight assembly segments of Srinagar district have gone against NC candidate Dr. Farooq. This has been endorsed by many NC leaders privately. "It is astounding that despite effective boycott in Srinagar city 60 to 65% of the polled votes have gone in favour of PDP which could destabilize National Conference in Srinagar city," said a senior NC leader.
Political analysts suggest that PDP is leading in Srinagar city by 4 to 5 thousand votes. A senior NC leader wishing anonymity endorsed that PDP has a clear edge in Srinagar but added that NC has still chances to win the seat because it may lead from Chrar e sharief and Kangan assembly segments in a big way.
"Yes, we also know that PDP has an edge in Srinagar but we are still in race because majority of votes polled in Chrar and Kangan have gone in favour of NC," senior NC leader told Early Times.
However, Observers contest this statement saying it is a fifty-fifty game in both Chrar-e-Sharief and Kangan as anti-incumbency has damaged the prospects of NC in both these constituencies.
"Even if NC leads from Chrar and Kangan it would be a marginal lead which PDP could counterbalance from Chadoora, Khansahib, Beerwah and Budgam assembly segments of the Budgam district.
The candidates of the Aam Admi Party and a few lesser known independents have also cut vote share of the NC in Budgam and Ganderbal districts giving edge to the PDP. The decision of the People’s Democratic Front (PDF) MLA Hakim Mohammad Yasin to stay away from polls has also proved a big plus for the PDP. Yasin, who has a large clout in Budgam district, in the last election had supported the NC candidate, which was one of the major reasons for Abdullah's victory over the PDP candidate.
As for two assembly segments of Ganderbal district viz Ganderbal and Kangan, observers suggest that in Ganderbal, PDP again has edge over NC. Interestingly in Ganderbal represented by Chief Minister, Omar Abdullah in state legislature, NC had not even a campaigner as all of its local but prominent faces left the party one by one during last few months. Observers suggest that PDP was very comfortably placed in Ganderbal. However, as regards to Kangan, political observers suggest that it is a close contest and as such a fifty-fifty game.
Though public memory is short lived but as ill luck would have it for NC the controversies surrounding the NC patriarch have also proved an advantage for the PDP. Just a few months back, Abdullah described Kashmiris as 'Maha Chor' (big thieves). The fury that the remark generated made Abdullah to rebut his statement. "I didn't say it," he was made to state in his defense with politicians' typical shield: "I was misquoted." Moreover, NC has been perceptibly a part of the game which culminated in the secret hanging of Parliament attack convict, Afzal Guru which was also fresh in the minds of the electorate.
In any case for the PDP, the Srinagar election has lot of significance as it feels that it was Srinagar that stopped its march to power in the 2008 Assembly elections. The NC won all eight Assembly seats there by small margins, with voter turnout of only 4-5%. However, a section of observers believe though anti-incumbency may reduce the winning margin, that the NC and Congress are jointly contesting these polls will give Farooq an edge over his rival. They say even if the winning margin does go down, it will not bode well for the party with assembly polls scheduled within the next few months. The Srinagar, Budgam Lok Sabha seat is as prestigious for NC as Amethi or Rae Bareli is for Congress. Except for a two-year hiatus when Mir Ghulam Mohammad Magami of the Congress won the Lok Sabha polls from Srinagar in 1996 as the NC boycotted the polls, the ruling party has always retained the constituency directly or through proxy since 1971. |
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