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| No-confidence motion with confidence | | | Jamwal Mahadeep Singh | 7/21/2018 10:14:37 PM |
| There can be no great courage, where there is no confidence or assurance, and half the battle is in the conviction that we can do what we undertake. We can well comment with these words about the theatrics that occupied the TV screens the whole day during the debate on no-confidence motion against the Modi- government and 27th in India's Parliamentary history, in a row since 1963, many defeated and many succeeded, since first such motion was brought in against then PM Jawaharlal Nehru. The pass through or fall of such motions is number game of MPs in the fold of the parties and a political analyst can well arrive at the consequence of such motions. In prevailing circumstances, none can deny the facts that the BJP and its allies have a very safe bag of MPs belonging to the NDA to defeat any motion, moreover when just there is less than 365 days at the life span of 16th Lok Sabha, why any such motion was moved require an analysis? That too by a former ally party of BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) i.e. Telugu Desam Party (TDP), a regional party although supported by Congress, CPI and some other regional parties. The motion has capped the BJP, with the feather of loyalty card of its supporting parties (325 MPs voted against motion) and it has also given occasion to raise fingers about 'Maha Gathbandhan" (126 MPs voted in favour of motion) much in talk now-a-days and also an occasion to go for insight story of the absence of 82 MPS from different parties abstaining from the voting, some of them alliance partner in NDA government. The complete debate was devoted towards much expected lines of exposing failure of Modi government in delivering to common man and from treasury bench to speak high of its much schemes in lime light for common mass with only an addition of hugging of PM and eye winking by Rahul Gandhi that attracted comments even from the presiding chair.
We can speak of this motion as test of number game on the floor of the house. But I consider all the by-polls to parliamentary seats and state assembly elections also a no confidence motion from time to time that take place across the country for one reason or the other. Such elections held after the present dispensation led by Modi government that occupied power house as PM of India in 2014, are also reflection in piece meal of confidence of voters in the Modi led BJP government and that do not go in favor of BJP. Here we forget that no confidence motion is an exercise to save or demolish the government in power and the hammer lies in the hands of elected MPs. The will of the common man in such circumstances does not carry any relevancy, whether MPs participating in voting still carry the confidence of the voters like government of the confidence of the majority MPs. This question requires a churning in the debate sessions. The defeat of no confidence motion should not be trumpeted as big victory by Modi-government and on the strength of this development, we cannot jump at the straight conclusion that the BJP is still cherished by one and all, the same way, it was accepted in 2014. For the reasons we can visit the graph of by poll elections of MPs, state elections, and by polls in assembly seats in different states, held after BJP stormed 2014 Lok Sabha elections with thumping majority. My observation is routed to the audit of seats vacated after party's massive victory in 2014 parliamentary elections. BJP just managed win in 5 of 27 Lok Sabha seats that went for by polls after Modi regime. The Lok Sabha seats that returned BJP candidates with empty bowls as big looser thereby smashing the hollow claims of BJP of its advancement after Modi came into power are; 1. Medak (Telangana) in September 2014. 2. Mainpuri in Mainpuri (UP) in September 2014. 3. Kandhmal (Odisha) in October 2014. 4. Warangal (Telangana) in Nov 2015. 5. Ratlam (MP) in Nov 2015. 6. Bangaon (WB) in 2015. 7. Coochbehar (WB) 2016. 8. Tamluka (WB) in 2016. 9. Tura (Meghalya) in 2016. 10. Amritsar (Pb) in 2017. 11. Srinagar (J&K) in 2017. 12. Mallapuram (Kerala) in 2017. 13. Gurdaspur (Pb) in 2017. 14. Ajmer (Rajasthan) in Feb. 2018. 15. Alwar (Rajasthan) in Feb. 2018. 16. Uluberia (WB) in Feb. 2018. 17. Phulpur (vacated by sitting Dy.CM of UP) in 2018. 18. Gorakhpur (vacated by sitting CM of UP) in 2018 and 19. Araria (Bihar) in March 2018. 20. Kairana (Uttar Pradesh) in May 2018. RLD snatched the seat earlier held by BJP 21. Bhandara - Gondiya (Maharashtra) in May 2018. NCP snatched seat earlier held by BJP. 22. Nagaland in May 2018. NDPP snatched seat earlier held by NPF.
After BJP regime assumed power in the centre, elections have been conducted in 22 states. Out of 22 states BJP could muster its majority just in five states i.e. 1. Haryana 2. Uttrakhand 3. Uttara Pradesh 4. Gujarat and 5. Himachal Pradesh. In nine states BJP failed to get majority at its own and formed government by allying with regional parties such as: 1. Maharashtra, elections held in October 2014. BJP got 122 seats of the 288 seats and failed to obtain magic figure to form the government at its own and did so with alliance with Shiv Sena securing 63 seats. (Now both are on different platter). 2. Jammu and Kashmir, elections held in Nov-Dec 2014 that gave 25 seats of 87 to BJP and it architected alliance with PDP that has contested elections against BJP (now under Governor Rule due to failure of elected government). 3. Jharkhand, elections were held in Dec 2014. BJP got 37 of 82 seats and failed to obtain magic figure to form the government, hence joined hands with regional parties to form the government. 4. Bihar, elections were held in 2015. The RJD win 80, JDU 71, and BJP win 53 seats. The initial government was formed by alliance of RJD and JDU but subsequently JDU dumped RJD and architected alliance with BJP. 5. Assam, elections held in 2016, but BJP could win only 60 seats of 126, means less than 50 per cent. 6. Goa, elections were held in 2017. BJP win 13 and Congress 17 of 40 seats, what BJP in trickery architected alliance with regional parties and form the government. 7. Meghalya, elections held in Feb 2018 and BJP won just two and Congress 21 of the 60 seats. The regional party supported by BJP is in power there. 8. Arunachal Pradesh, the elections held in 2018 but witnessed turmoil, when in 60 member assembly, 43 MLAs winning on Congress tickets defected to BJP making in all 48 group of BJP. 9. Tripura, elections held in Feb 2018 and BJP got 23 of the 59 seats but formed government in alliance with Indigenous peoples Front of Tripura (IPFT) having 7 seats. The bad part of the information under carpet: is BJP's performance below margin in assembly elections in various states that went to elections after much hyped Modi wave. 1. Delhi, elections held in 2015, BJP have just 3 of 70 assembly seats. A just born AAP gave crushing defeat to BJP ruling in center. 2. Tamil Nadu, elections held in May 2016 and BJP was returned with zero in 235 assembly seats. 3. West Bengal, elections held in 2016 and BJP scored just 3 out of 294 assembly seats. 4. Kerala, elections held in May 2016 and BJP scored just one out of 140 assembly seats. 5. Punjab, elections held in 2017 and BJP scored 43 out of 117 assembly seats. 6. Manipur, elections held in 2017, BJP win just 21 of 60 assembly seats. 7. Nagaland., elections held in 2018, BJP win 12 of 60 assembly seats. 8. Karnataka, recently concluded elections in 2018, BJP captured 104 out of 222 seats. Without moving much deep we can conclude on results of by poll assembly elections declared on 31st May 2018. Out of ten seats BJP could muster only one seat.
Concluding we can arrive at, that in just concluded motion in Lok Sabha, the BJP and speakers of parties in its fold have not revealed any fresh disclosers except it's all time self praise of delivery to the common man through its much talked welfare schemes responded in the same way of condemnation of Modi government on U-turn of points reflected in election manifesto of BJP of 'Achche din". This motion however defeated (as expected) but in actuality, has flashed a message in the public domain that they have to think twice before pressing the EVM button, as the opposition block has obtained edge in pressing the trouble shooting buttons stitched by Modi-led government on the shirts of common man, educated unemployed, labor class, farmers, middle and marginal business man. Both the power players i.e. NDA and UPA have to think twice on the delivery aspect and they must realize that now voters of young India have pierced the blanket of hollow slogans, fake commitments, flashy slogans, and their trickeries of befooling the voters on caste and religion lines. |
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