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| Is Pak reenacting 1999 scene on IB in Jammu ? | | | Is Pakistan trying to enact 1999 scene on
the IB in Jammu and Kashmir when sev
eral thousand families were forced to flee to safer places following heavy gun and mortar fire used by the enemy forces as part of the plan to divert the attention of Indian troops from the Kargil heights ?
This question has assumed significance following repeated ceasefire violations being committed by the Pakistani troops on the LOC and on the IB during the last three months.In fact Pakistani troops violated the ceasefire agreement as many as 120 times during the last over nine months in which scores of people and half a dozen security personnel were injured and over 15 people,including five security personnel were killed.The scene on the IB in Jammu sector resembles the one that was witnessed in 1999.More than 30,000 border villagers have fled to safer places on this side of the IB.The only difference being that this time there is no Kargil.It is believed that if Pakistani troops staged Kargil misadventure it was the outcome of anger the Pak Army officers nursed against Nawaz Sharif who had initiated peace process with Atal Behari Vajpayee.And the then Army Chief,Parvez Musharaf seems to have opposed the peace initiative which encouraged him to stage a coup against Nawaz Sharif who was dislodged.
And this time there is no Kargil war.When then repeated ceasefire violations ? The sudden rise in incidents of ceasefire violations have also left security agencies bewildered, especially when it comes days after Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's meeting with Modi, and his consequent letter to India's Prime Minister.Sharif, in his letter to PM Modi, had expressed hope for a 'brighter future' between the two countries.
Security analysts are of the opinion that the powerful Pakistani Army is miffed at Sharif not discussing Kashmir with the Indian prime minister.The last time Sharif tried to move forward on the peace process, which came to a halt in 1999, General Pervez Musharraf ousted him in a military coup. Earlier that year the Pakistani PM had signed a 'Lahore Declaration' with former BJP Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee.But it seems, yet again, the Pakistani political establishment has moved ahead on this front without consulting its military counterpart.And knowing that the civil or even elected Government cannot tame the Army and the ISI the t wo pillars of the Government in Islamabad do not waste any time in escalating political problems for the elected Government.This is what Nawaz Sharif is facing.
Against this the Army and the paramilitary forces in India await inst ructions from the political masters.Though the Army and the BSF had retaliated ceasefire violations by the Pakistani troops,the forces were given free hand for dealing with the situation on the border by Prime Minister,Narendra Modi,Union Home Minister,Rajnath Singh and the Defence Minister,Arun Jaitley.India has a disciplined Army and the paramilitary forces but in Pakistan it is the Army that dictates terms to the civilian Government.
In Pakistan top Army functionaries expect the ruling political leaders to seek approval from them before taking any decision on mending fences with India.
The Army in Pakistan has set its agenda which is to push groups of militants into Jammu and Kashmir.And for doing so it has to provide a safe passage for ingress which the Pak Army believes can be done only by targeting Indian Army nd BSF posts and pickets.The Army and the ISI re for wrecking the Assembly election and they believe that it can be done by inflating the strength of man power among the militants.Secondly,the Army and the ISI in Pakistan believe that the only way to internationalise the Kashmir issue and give the issue a new lease of life is to tigger border conflict.The Pak Army is not for a sustained or long drawn war against India and after the Kashmir issue has figured on the international scene the guns will fall silent shortly. |
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