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| PDP, BJP likely to upset Azad's calculations | | Rajya Sabha polls | | Rustam
Early Times Report
JAMMU, Feb 1: Congressman and Leader of Opposition in Rajya Sabha Ghulam Nabi Azad, who was decimated by the Jammu electorate in the last Lok Sabha elections and under whose "unpopular and uninspiring leadership" the Congress performed very poorly in the Jammu province, including the erstwhile Doda district (considered Azad's pocket borough), the just-held Assembly elections, last week filed his nomination papers hoping that he would again be able to make it to the Rajya Sabha with the help of the NC, Congress and independent MLAs. Elections would be held on February 7.
Azad needs the support of 30 MLAs to win the election, which is very crucial for his political future. The Congress has only 12 MLAs in the 87-member Legislative Assembly. The NC, which has 15 MLAs, has extended conditional support to his candidature. The condition, according to the reported agreement between NC working president Omar Abdullah and AICC president Sonia Gandhi, is that the Congress will not field its candidates in the upcoming Legislative Council elections (7 MLC’s have to be elected latest by March 8) and it would support the NC candidates. (The deal has not been appreciated by many Congressmen, as they believe that it would further harm its long-term interests in the state in general and Jammu province in particular). So, Azad has the support of 27 MLAs, three less than the required number.
It is obvious that Azad would need the support of three independent MLAs to ensure his victory against the PDP and BJP candidates - indeed a very difficult task. The PDP and the BJP are contesting the elections jointly against all the three notifications. The PDP and the BJP will win the elections held under notification number I and II hands down, as they share between them 53 seats. Besides, the PDP and the BJP also enjoy the support of three more MLAs, two belonging to the People's Conference of Sajad Lone.
The PDP can win the seat contested under the III notification. It has arranged its numbers, it seems. As for the BJP candidate, he, like Azad, also enjoys the support of 27 MLAs. Reports emanating from the concerned camps suggest that the BJP candidate is likely to be supported by Pawan Gupta, an independent MLA from Udhampur. On Saturday, his prospects further improved with an independent MLA from Zanskar (Ladakh) Bakir Hussain Rizvi making common cause with the PDP, the BJP's ally in the Rajya Sabha elections. In other words, the BJP candidate has the support of 29 MLAs. He needs the support of just one more independent MLA to inflict defeat on Azad, who as of now has the support of only 27 MLAs. Reports further suggest that both the PDP and the BJP are working hard to seek the support of one more MLA, which, according to poll managers of the PDP and the BJP "could happen much to the chagrin of Azad and Omar Abdullah".
It is important to note that Rizvi was supported by the NC in the Assembly elections. On Saturday, he attended the PDP Legislature Party meeting, which was called by the party president Mehbooba Mufti. All the PDP MPs, MLAs and MLCs met at the official residence of former Chief Minister and patron of the PDP Mufti Mohammad Sayeed on Saturday. Rizvi's open support to the PDP has boosted the poll prospectus of the PDP and the BJP, which was striving hard to win all four Rajya Sabha seats in Jammu & Kashmir. The open support of Rizvi to the PDP has disturbed and perturbed not only Azad but also Omar Abdullah for obvious reasons. The position at the moment is that the PDP and the BJP is an advantageous position. |
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