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| INDIA'S ADMISSION IN SCO | | | Col J P Singh, (Retd.) | 7/26/2015 11:39:58 PM |
| Two day Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit concluded on 10th July 2015 at Ufa, in Russia. For us in India it was a dramatic event for four reasons. First was summit's final decision to admit India and Pakistan, both inimical neighbours, as permanent members; second, an hour long meeting between prime ministers of India and Pakistan, third, joint statement of Modi and Nawaz Sharief without mention of 'K' word in it and the fourth, hue and cry in Pakistan on the ommission of 'K' word. It brought cheers in the Indian camp. Moreover India's admission happened just two days after the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) summit in the same city centre in which India made impressive contributions. India and Pakistan's admission will be formalised in the next SCO summit in 2016 in India. India's full membership of SCO will provide it a useful platform to closely work with Central Asian Republics and great powers Russia and China to further its strategic and economic interests in the region. With China, it will now be able to get closer and make our concerns known more easily. With Pakistan, Modi govt will no longer be liable to be whipped for not engaging and derailing the peace process.
It was in 2001 that SCO emerged as successor to Shanghai-5 comprising Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Shanghai-5 was established to rectify the borders between China and the new Central Asian Republics in the aftermath of the collapse of USSR. China and Russia amply used SCO platform as benchmark of evolving relations between themselves. Both had border and bilateral issues and divergent economic and strategic interests in Central Asia. Despite that they signed a treaty of 'Good Neighborliness and Friendship Cooperation'. Similarily India and Pakistan can emulate these neighbours and enter into 'Friendship Treaty' should some good sense prevail among hawks in both.
With the admission of India and Pakistan, SCO will have 8 permanent members, 4 observers (Afghanistan, Belarus, Iran and Mangolia), 6 dialogue partners and ASEAN, CIS (commonwealth of independent states), OIC (Organisation of Islamic Countries) and Turkmenistan as guest invitees. Hence SCO provides India a vast sphere of easier engagements. With its observer states and India and Pakisan having joined, SCO will account for 70 % landmass of Eurasia and half of the world's population. Next dramatic event in our mind is India's admission in UN Security Council.
Russian and Chinese divergent interests and potential economic value of central Asian region had initially stalled SCO's expansion. The SCO, beginning as a forum to settle borders has redefined itself in recent years despite Chinese and Russian vision still not the same. While China has steered the organization towards an economic grouping, Russia has emphasized it's political role and pushed for greater security cooperation. So far the grouping has primarily centred on Central Asian security concerns often focusing on terrorism, separatism and extremeism. There is lot of focus on miilitary cooperation, intelligence sharing and counter terrorism among the member nations which augurs well for India. India has been the most contentious addition because of Beijing's reservations. Beijing, however, has now come to realise that including India is a way of drawing a fast growing economy into a trading network centered around China. Russia wanted India to be in SCO to add a 1.25 billion people to a regional grouping that does not include US. President Xi said, "It will inject new impetus into the organisation's all ranging cooperation". Chinese observers described the development as, 'lot of differences in the region will now be resolved'. They are also exited that SCO platform will enable China to play the peace broker between India and Pakistan, both nuclear powers, to be able to pursue its silk route agenda and infrastruture ventures in POK. Independent observers see it as a posible challenge to NATO since SCO will now have four nuclear power nations with India and Pakistan joining.
Despite Indian's civilizational links to central Asia, ties have remained well below par. SCO memebership makes strengthening ancient ties easier and certain. Central Asia is abundant in uranium and oil which India needs most. Other advantages of sharing common platform at SCO will enable India and Pakistan to understand each other better, allaying member nations fears that the differences between them may cloud the agenda of SCO. (If at all a dramatic confrontation breaks out between them at some point, it will definitely act as stumbling block on major issues and hence there will be pressure on both sides to harmonise relations). For China, military might rests on a strong economic base. Its global power stems from the ability to shape global markets. For India, the equation is different. Its economic growth rests on its military base. China sails its ships / nuclear powered submarines closer to Indian coast and flies its planes over disputed islands, but still uses its economic heft in disputes with neighbors more aptly. In this way it has managed to shape the behavior of Russia, Taiwan, Philippines and Japan by placing or removing barriers to trade. China issues white paper on defence and security every year adding new dimensions to its military objectives whereas India remains bogged down with infiltrations and ceasefire violations here and there. As a result major part of our military might in committed on the frontiers leaving India porous on the coast line.The expanded SCO creates a space in which two most populous nations in the world and two warring nations of the region are there. It lays the rough framework for a future security and economic space that could ease tensions in the region. For this reason India should engage with China more and NOT repeat the mistake it made earlier insulating itself and be the perpetual outsider. It will be to the liking of China. Groupings where both India and Pakistan are included enable them to come out of their basic myopic bilateral contentious approach to a broader regional understanding. Should such understanding emerges from new developments, India's admission into UN Security Council becomes easier.
Meeting of Modi and Nawaz Sharief is most significant. Blow hot-blow cold in our relations will continue for decades to come but it should not distract Modi's vision of India and Nawaz Sharief's vision for Pakistan. To realise 21st century as Asian Century, both countries have to come out of their jaundiced mindset and move forward towards economic development. Today India is on the path of economic development but the security situation on its borders is blocking its speed. Nearly two and half million security forces are deployed on the Indian frontiers while our maritime boundaries are left unguarded. All the new raisings are poised for the land borders. To become an economic power, India has to exploit blue waters for which Modi has started his bid. International sea route are not safe from Chinese hegemony and piracy. To promote trade in the blue waters India needs strong marine corps. Should the regional security equation change, India can detach minimum of 3 Divisions form LoC and another three from Western borders and convert them into Marine Corps (Indian Ocean Fleet) to extend our safety net in the blue waters. For this peace with Pakistan is obligatory. Modi and Nawaz Sharief are seen to have initiated the process at Ufa. Coming years are poised to augur well for India despite the storm in J&K which will blow over soon. |
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