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| Even fresh election may throw up a hung House | | | In case midterm Assembly elections are held in Jammu and Kashmir,which is under the Governor's rule and the Assembly is yet to be dissolved ,which political party could be the main gainer ? Before answering this question will the next Assembly election again throw up a hung House ? Yes indications are that the next election too may not allow any political party to secure simple majority by bagging 44 seats,needed to form the Government.In fact right from 2002 Assembly poll no party has been able to win simple majority,leave alone absolute majority that used to be the situation or scene in 1983 or 1987 or 1996 elections.In 2002 election the PDP had to forge an alliance with the Congress for the formation of the Government.In 2008 election the National Conference and the Congress joined hands to form the Government. But in 2014 the political experiment conducted by late Mufti Mohd.Sayeed was quite bold as he aligned the PDP with the BJP,allowing people to believe that it is a union between the south and the north pole.Well Mufti had the alternative to choose the NC for Government formation but he opted for the BJP to promote regional balance and to ensure liberal financial support from the centre for various development projects.
What happened is part of history because neither the regional imbalance was resolved nor the state received liberal financial assistance for undoing the losses suffered by people in the september 2014 floods nor the infrastructure that was damaged by floods could be rebuilt or restored not the centre made available sufficient funds for purchasing two major power projects from the NHPC nor were funds available for converting Srinagar and Jammu into smart cities. Reports said that after Mehbooba Mufti,who has been authorized by the party to form the Government, failed to take any firm decision leaving scope for fresh elections after the Governor dissolved the Assembly.Will ultimately Mehbooba opt for fresh elections ? This is the question that has become a matter of discussion among people and politicians in Jammu and Kashmir.But there is no definite answer to this question because Mehbooba does not have the constitutional authority to recommend to the Governor to dissolve the Assembly and set some date for the election because she is neither the member of the Assembly nor the Chief Minister.In fact if Mehbooba decides in favour of facing the electorate the Governor, N.N.Vohra,becomes the constitutional, as well as the executive head of the state to dissolve the Assembly and order fresh elections.
In reality the PDP plans to cash on sympathy wave following demise of Mufti Sayeed.Yes,there is the possibility of some sympathy wave in the state but that is not so powerful that it can allow the PDP to either gain simple majority or emerge as the largest single party in the Assembly as was the case in 2014 election.It is so because the PDP-BJP coalition Government's performance was below average and it had failed to resolve various problems of people.One thing is sure it may not be able to repeat the 2014 performance when it bagged 28 seats.
Similarly this time Prime Minister Narendra Modi may not have the charisma which he had in 2014 that helped the BJP to win, for the first time 25 seats. In fact the BJP has lost the battle before the beginning of the poll fight.Even if it is able to keep its vote bank safe against erosion it may not be able to win 25 seats. At the most three to seven seats it can win.
And this is the reason for the BJP to silently tolerate Mehbooba's tantrums. Mehbooba is equally not sure to repeat 2014 performance. Even if it is able to win 21 to 23 seats again it has to find a partner with whom it can share power and in that case Congress support may be available. In any way the number of seats the PDP and the BJP may lose are likely to be won by the NC and the Congress.One cannot rule out the possibility of a Congress-NC coalition Government after the midterm election. |
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