Neha
JAMMU, Nov 28: In Kathua district, the Cong-ress has a strong support-base in Bani, Basohli, Billawar and Hiranagar assembly constituencies, notwithstanding the fact that it could capture only Billawar seat in 2008. In these constituencies, the BJP is also a force to reckon with. As far as the NC is concerned, it has some support-base in Bani assembly constituency. And as for Kathua assembly constituency, it is the strong support-base of BSP and Congress. At present, this constituency is represented in the assembly by an Independent candidate. It is obvious that the local Congress leadership would like to field its candidates in all the five assembly constituencies. In Samba district which returns two members to the assembly, the Congress has little or no support-base. In Samba constituency, the Panthers Party is very strong. The JKNPP has been representing this constituency since 2002. The BJP also has appreciable number of supporters. In Vijaypur assembly constituency, it is all between the NC and BJP, with the BSP also having its pockets of influence. As for the Congress, it stands decimated in this constituency. At present, the NC represents this constituency in the assembly. This is the only seat in Samba district which the Congress may not like to contest, but here the problem is that there are at least three strong contenders for this seat as far as the Congress party is concerned. They would do their best to persuade the party top brass not to yield to strengthen the NC.
It is the Jammu district which returns as many as eleven members to the assembly. These constituencies include Nagrota, Gandhi Nagar, Jammu East, Jammu West, Bishnah, R S Pura, Suchetgarh, Marh, Raipur Domana, Akhnoor and Chhamb. These are constituencies where the Congress and the BJP have considerable influence. Nagrota, Jammu West, Marh, Raipur Domana, Jammu East, R S Pura and Suchetgarh are at present represented by the BJP and the BJP expelled MLAs. Chhamb, Akhnoor and Gandhi Nagar are represented by the Congress. Bishnah is represented by the Jammu State Morcha and it has over the period become a force to reckon with. The JSM won this seat twice in a row in 2002 and 2008. In all the Jammu constituencies, barring Bishnah, both the BJP and the Congress are quite strong.
As for the NC, it has its support-base in Gandhi Nagar, Bishnah, Nagrota, Marh, Raipur Domana and Akhnoor, but it is not in a position to capture even a single seat. The reason is that the bulk of electorate in these constituencies is anti-NC by conviction. It hates and abhors the NC ideology. Besides, an overwhelming majority of people of Jammu district not only denounces the NC as an anti-Jammu party but also rabidly anti-Dogras.
It is clear that the local Congress leadership would try its luck in all these constituencies as and when elections take place. It believes that it can turn tables on what it calls the "unpopular BJP" overlooking the fact that the people of Jammu are also not very pleased with the Congress party and Congress ministers. But more than that, there are many local NC leaders who have been working in constituencies such as Nagrota, Gandhi Nagar, Marh, Bishnah, Suchetgarh, R S Pura, Raipur Domana and even Akhnoor in order to create a strong support-base for them. All of them are very close to the top NC leadership, which would not like to displease them for political reasons. In other words, the NC would like to retain control over whatever political space it has in the very crucial Jammu district. To be more precise, the local Congress leadership and the NC as a party would oppose each other's move aimed at entering into pre-poll alliance. (To be continued)
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