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| Unilateral ceasefire may lead to rise in violence | | | Top Army functionaries have rejected the demand for unilateral ceasefire in Jammu Kashmir during the month of Ramzan and during the ensuing Amarnath yatra on the plea that unilateral ceasefire may allow militants to regroup and carry out fresh recruitment drive. This is what had happened in 2000 when Vajpayee had opted for unilateral ceasefire. Why unilateral ceasefire? If separatists announced end to their repeated calls for shutdown and desist from appealing to people to hold protest rallies and Pakistan stopped pushing groups of militants io Jammu and Kashmir coupled with militants declaring ceasefire on their part the central Government could accept the demand of Kashmiri politicians for ceasefire. Indications are that both the militants and separatists are in no mood to declare ceasefire. Also separatists have described the demand made by All Parties as a farce knowing well that it is not within the rights of state Government to declare ceasefire. Army functionaries also hold unilateral ceasefire responsible for the 2001 terrorist attack on Parliament. They also fear that Jaish-e-Mohammad may regroup and relaunch attacks.
In 2000 the number of terrorist attacks had increased. Already during year long operations against militants a stage has reached when militants were to be neutralised. Hence at this stage unilateral ceasefire may be harmful. Yes, if militants and Pakistan announce halt in firing and civilians in Kashmir stop clashing with security forces the option for the Government to go in for unilateral ceasefire. Even the Army Chief, Gen. Bipin Rawat, wants the security forces to upgrade combat operations. And amnesty granted to stone pelters has assumed new dimensions in the sense that groups of youth show determination in clashing with the security forces with bigger stones. And these stoning incidents result in killing of civilians. And the cycle keeps running. And the Army functionaries believe that if the combat operations are continued things will improve.
It ultimately depends on the Prime Minister, the Union Home Ministry and the Ministry of Defence to reject or accept the APM demand. The Prime Minister cannot accept the APM demand on his own because he has to seek Army and paramilitary forces' concurrence before he opts for ceasefire. If the Prime Minister opts for ceasefire without approval from the Army authorities and the situation assumes alarming dimensions Modi may not be spared by the congress which is in favour of unilateral ceasefire. In fact the Congress and the NC support unilateral ceasefire under the impression if the security scenario assumed alarming dimensions they may roar against the dismissal of the state Government. And the Congress could use the failed experiment for exploiting BJP fortune during next Lok Sabha election. |
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