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| PIERCING THE CHINESE BUBBLE | | |
Ansh Chowdhari
China’s recalcitrant approach seems to prolong the crisis as it relents moving back from the finger area in Ladakh was a succinct headline blared recently by almost all channels albeit with less gusto. This new development apparently has come on the heels of a mutual disengagement at Galwan and Hot Springs area. The China has tried to disavow the prevalent status quo in the finger area and is now on a hot pursuit to establish strategic presence in places hitherto uncontested, yet disputed. This opens up a broader strategic foreplay in the tumultuous region where India’s vigilance and future modus operandi shall determine the outcome of this catch-22 situation, which largely has global ramifications. On the face of it, tensions seemingly have dissipated from the LAC but the deep ingrained misgiving thence emerged have made relations with China tricky for India, which otherwise was complacent and smug prior to this misadventure. Simmering tensions that had developed on the LAC since last 2 months reached a crescendo after 20 of our Jawans were killed in action at Galwan. This prompted a series of haphazard responses from the government, which were at best incoherent and grossly inadequate. The dispensation at the helm of affairs failed to recognise the gravity of the situation and miscalculated the Chinese provocations. All such steps severely blunted our options and restricted our strategic manoeuvrability. International relations are never about commanding moral high grounds, as many political functionaries feel in Delhi. While China was busy playing a game of ducks and drakes with us, Indian government and media, alike failed to bell the cat at the right time. Additionally, the flippant remarks that came from the Chinese government’s mouthpiece Global Times early on with such forbidding notoriety reflected their upper hand in this entire tussle. The government’s bland attitude initially evoked little interest among the strategic community but once the Prime Minister strutted about with the baton strongly held, things got amply clear to all and sundry. The ‘smokescreen approach’ adopted earlier was dropped to give way to a more nuanced, clear and bold strategy, and the situation rightly demanded so. The PM’s address to the Jawans buttresses my assertion. It was essential to conjure up the dampened political spirits of Delhi and more so when the opposition was clamouring for a thorough response. Lately, the Commander level talks further helped in defusing the tensions. This standoff, surprisingly, has superseded the number of days witnessed during Doklam standoff. The India, even then, posited a strong reprisal to the aggression and overtly told its neighbours that New Delhi can stand for them in the hour of crisis and there’s no need to get bullied by China or succumb to its military and economic pressures like Nepal and Pakistan. This time also, India has sent a strong message to its South Asian neighbours.
Now, as it has receded fairly from the first pages of national dailies, it’s essential that a threadbare discussion must happen on this issue at the national level. The usual rhetoric now evinces little Interest among the masses and the government, therefore, must come up with a solid strategy to counter China in the region especially at the frontiers. Curzon said, “Frontiers are indeed the razor’s edge, on which hang suspended the modern issues of war and peace” and this gets exemplified from the present case with China.
As India is already battling rising Covid cases at home, it can ill afford to see another war at the border, especially with China. This must nudge India to go for China’s jugular vein- Tibet and Taiwan, though implicitly. Besieged at home in Hong Kong, China can’t afford another front in Tibet, when it’s already involved in ‘unmaking Muslims’ in restive Xinjiang. India must come out in support of democratic movement in Hong Kong and dispel its fixation with ‘One China Policy’, which we’ve adhered to for far too long. China, on the contrary, never misses an opportunity to disappoint and embarrass India on Kashmir at the international fora. China had also blocked international efforts to designate Masood Azhar a global terrorist a number of times in support of its all-weather ally Pakistan, that wants Beijing to go along with the terrorist tag on the condition that India resumes bilateral dialogue with Islamabad on all outstanding issues including Kashmir.
As the United States has brought its two Aircraft carriers in the South China Sea, it’s interesting to note that the former is ready to take the Dragon heads on in its own backyard, over which China has huge claims (Nine Dash line). This signifies an intensification of strategic rivalry in the region. Additionally, the Prime Minister Scott Morrison of Australia has also announced a radical shift in Australia’s defence policy, which in all likelihood has been a response against Chinese aggressive overtures .Japan too has joined the bandwagon and has gone ahead to buy 105 F-35 joint strike fighters from the US. This collective effort mounted on China reflects the emerging power shifts in this Corona infested times in the Indo Pacific. This changing geopolitical milieu doesn’t augur well for China in the long run. India, meanwhile has sought to strengthen its relationship with Quad countries and has softened its stand over Australia joining Malabar Exercise. As per Australian press, “it looks almost certain for Australia to join key naval exercises with India, the United States and Japan as the four democracies tighten military cooperation to stare down a rising China”. This reiterates Indian commitment for a free and open Indo Pacific. Economically also, India must strike at the very roots of the problem whence China derives its leveraging power from. Chinese manufacturing provides it with the leading edge across the world as it has surreptitiously entered into global supply chains. India must concede to this fact and then devise its strategy accordingly. In this respect, AtmaNirbhar Bharat is a novel programme introduced by the government which aims to go “Vocal for Local”- strengthening local production and manufacturing. Chinese belligerence has, nonetheless, stymied the process of regional integration and trade relations that both countries have agreed to in the past. But realism demands that India should never be averse to China. It should rather, adopt a policy of CONGAGEMENT (containment + Engagement) with China. Concludingly, I’d say that it’s necessary for India to build a comprehensive power in all the necessary attributes that Kautilya has talked about viz political leadership, good governance, a strong economy and a strong military. And this alone, as Shyam Saran says, can chip away at the power asymmetry between India and China, bringing a degree of ‘equality’ in the relationship. |
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