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| Ind-Ra sees deficit quality of states improving in FY23, revises outlook | | |  agencies
NEW DELHI, Feb 18: India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) on Friday revised the outlook on the finances of Indian states to improving for FY23 from neutral.
It expects the aggregate fiscal deficit of states for FY23 to come in at 3.6 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) compared to 3.5 per cent (revised) in FY22.
"The revision was made due to better-than-expected growth in revenue receipts and higher growth in the nominal GDP in FY22. Ind-Ra estimates India's nominal GDP to grow 17.6 per cent yoy, higher than its 19 August 2021 estimate of 15.6 per cent in FY22," the agency said.
Ind-Ra noted that the quality of the fiscal deficit is likely to improve in FY22 (forecast; f) and FY23 (f) after deteriorating during FY20 and FY21 (revised estimate) due to the impact of Covid-19 on the states' revenue receipts.
Fiscal deficit refers to the gap between total income and expenditure of the government. The rating agency said that economic recovery led pick-up in own-revenue collection, combined with higher than budgeted tax devolution from the Centre, would moderate states' aggregate revenue deficit to 0.73 per cent of GDP (previous estimate: 1.3 per cent) in FY22(f).
Ind-Ra has projected a marginally lower aggregate revenue deficit of 0.69 per cent of GDP for FY23.
"Even with a continuing revenue deficit, the states have greater leg-room to undertake higher capital expenditure in FY23 due to the Rs 1 trillion (Rs 1 lakh crore) financial assistance by way of the 50-year interest-free loans extended by the union government in its FY23 budget," Ind-Ra said. It expects capex to GDP ratio to be higher at 3.04 per cent in FY23 (f) than 2.84 per cent in FY22 (f).
The fiscal deficit, therefore, would be largely channelised towards the development of state infrastructure in FY23, believes Ind-Ra.
Due to an improvement in states' aggregate revenue receipts and higher tax devolution from the Union government, the agency expects gross and net market borrowings by the states in FY22 to be lower than the agency's previous estimates.
Ind-Ra estimates the gross and net market borrowings of states, in aggregate, to come in lower at Rs 6.6 lakh crore and Rs 4.6 lakh crore, respectively, than its previous estimate of Rs 8.2 lakh crore and Rs 6.2 lakh crore for FY22 (f).
The agency estimates the gross and net market borrowings would be Rs 7 lakh crore and Rs 4.63 lakh crore, respectively in FY23 (f). |
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