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| Bihar poll outcome to decide future of PDP-BJP coalition | | Governor Rule? | |
Early Times Report
JAMMU, Oct 4: The PDP-BJP coalition Government in Jammu & Kashmir is not really stable, notwithstanding the oft-repeated assertion of PDP and BJP that their government would last a full term, as also notwithstanding the fact that BJP more than PDP is determined to stay put in power in the state. The PDP, which would also like to remain at the helm of affairs till March 2021 for achieving a "bigger objective", is not a political party like the National Conference, which, unlike the PDP, compromises its ideology for the sake of power.
PDP wants political power, but, at the same time, it is committed to its core self-rule ideology. It can sacrifice the Chief Minister's office anytime. In fact, Chief Minister Mufti Sayeed has repeatedly said that he forged an alliance with BJP with a purpose and that for him political power is not that important.
He is continuing because he feels, and rightly so, that he is on a right track and that he is meticulously implementing his party's agenda.
Those who have been accusing the Chief Minister of being hand-in-glove with the RSS are only fooling themselves. The PDP hates the RSS and even separatists like Syed Ali Shah Geelani admire the PDP in their heat of hearts for reasons not really difficult to fathom. Is it not a fact that Geelani a day before the Eid asked his co-religionists in the Valley not to do anything on the day of Eid which could hurt the religious sentiments of other communities? It is a fact. His objective was clear: He wanted the present government to continue for obvious reasons.
However, political observers feel that things would change dramatically in the state after November 9, when the Election Commission of India would declare the outcome of the Bihar assembly elections. "The PDP-BJP coalition government would fall in case the BJP-led NDA coalition suffers defeat in the Bihar elections. The Bihar election is not a normal election. Its outcome will have nation-wide impact, as the BJP is contesting the elections in Bihar under the sole leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. It would be a referendum on his performance as well as his social, economic, political and foreign policies. The BJP suffered a massive defeat in Delhi Assembly elections early this year, despite the fact that Narendra Modi addressed almost a dozen election rallies. If the people of Bihar replicate Delhi in November despite the fact that he addressed more than 20 election rallies in the Hindi heartland, his position would become very weak. Weak to the extent that his detractors within the party would up their ante against him questioning not just his social, economic and foreign policies but also his political policy, including his decision to allow the BJP to form coalition government in Jammu & Kashmir after discarding its ideology," political observers assert, and add that "the defeat of the BJP in Bihar would leave the RSS, the Prime Minister and the BJP high command with no other option but to ask the local unit of the BJP to come out of the coalition government".
It is pertinent to mention here that the non-BJP parties in Bihar - apart from tearing into Narendra Modi and attacking his social, economic and foreign policies - have also been criticizing the BJP for its alliance with the PDP. They do not consider the PDP as a mainstream political party; they consider it Pakistan and separatist-friendly. Indeed, the defeat of the BJP in Bihar would surely force Narendra Modi and the BJP high command and their mentor RSS to review their whole approach towards Jammu & Kashmir. And, if it at all happens, the state would be under the Governor Rule in case the PDP again refused to tie-up either with the Congress or the NC. There are reasons to believe that the PDP would prefer fresh elections than a tie-up with the NC or the Congress. There are also cogent reasons to believe that the NC and the Congress would like to test political waters in the state, as they have come to believe that they would improve their respective positions substantially in case the state goes to the poll at this point in time. They believe that both the PDP and the BJP have become unpopular because of their failure to address the issues facing the state and mitigating the hardships of the flood-affected people. |
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