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| After losing Jammu will separatists lose Kashmir ? | | | If high polling percentage in Jammu- Poonch Lok Sabha constituency is any guide one can safely say that majority of 18.48 lakh voters have rejected Kashmiri separatists appeal for poll boycott. Even months before the schedule for the Lok Sabha election was fixed and announced separatists, belonging to both moderate and hardliners camps,had launched anti-poll campaign. Among the separatists who were in the forefront of the anti-poll campaign included Syed Ali Shah Geelani and Molvi Umar Farooq.
Though Jamait-e-Islami leadership stayed away from the anti-poll campaign it made it clear that its activists and workers will not cast their votes.
It was not for the first time that Kashmiri separatists have been giving calls to people to boycott the polls, whether Lok Sabha or the Assembly elections.
They even gave a call to people to stay away from the Panchayat elections which were held after a gap of 23 years in Jammu and Kashmir in 2011.
But except for the 1989 Lok Sabha election when militants, who had been active in triggering violence since 1988, had succeeded in enforcing their call for poll boycott people, by and large, had refused to respond full to the separatists call for poll boycott in Lok Sabha and Assembly elections,including the Panchayat polls, held right from 1996 till date.
In 1989 the entire valley had been gripped by scare which resulted in the Srinagar Lok Sabha seat going to the National Confer ence candidate, Mohd.Shafi Bhat, without any contest.
And the NC candidates, Prof. Saif-ud-Din Soz, and P.L. Handoo were able to win the Baramulla and Anantnag seats respectively though the over all polling percentage ranged between three and four per cent,the lowest ever recorded in the Lok Sabha or the Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir.
In Assembly and Lok Sabha elections held between 1996 and 2008 the average polling figures from the valley varied between 18 and 31 per cent except for some Assembly segments in Kupwara district where the polling percentage had touched over 40 per cent. But as far as the two Lok Sabha constituencies and 37 Assembly areas in the Jammu region are concerned voters have not responded to the repeated calls to people to stay away from the poll process.
On an average the polling percentage ranged between 40 and 55 per cent. And polling held on Thursday in Jammu-Poonch Lok Sabha constituency is on the expected lines indicating that the writ of separatists is limited to some parts of the Kashmir valley.
That separatists poll boycott calls have failed to cross the Pir Panjal mountain range to enter into the region of Jammu is an established factor. And if separatists are questioned about the purpose of their call for poll boycott they are quick to say that since elections,whether the Lok Sabha or the Assembly, are not a substitute for a plebiscite they will not favour any such democratic exercise.
They argue that had elections settled the Kashmir issue the matter would have been dead by 1951 when the first Assembly election was held in Jammu and Kashmir. And if these separatists are asked as to why people cast their votes, again they quick to say that they vote for better road connectivity, electricity, drinking water and better employment avenues.
They are certain that their call for poll boycott will evoke some response from the voters in the three constituencies. If they prove correct it will means that these separatists' writ runs only within the valley.
If the polling percentage in the three Lok Sabha constituencies ranged between 35 and 45 per cent it may denote that separatists have lost even the valley thereby making them irrelevant. While the poll authorities, Government agencies and security forces have coordinated their efforts for foiling separatists attempt at creating scare which could force people to stay indoors on the days of polling. Let us see who wins the battle. |
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