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| Kashmir Congress can upset alliance in LS election | | | Bashir Assad
Jammu, Mar 9: Although the ruling National Conference-Congress coalition have decided to contest the upcoming Lok Sabha elections jointly, the simmering discontent among the Congress workers in Kashmir valley can upset a lot many calculations in the electoral process.
The ground situation in Kashmir valley suggest that for now, the anger among the congress workers may upset the coalition at the highest level which admittedly has not percolated down to the gross roots level which is obvious from the fact that last five years have been marked by deep rift with the Kashmir congress always complaining of discrimination by the NC party.
It is also being said that the major thing that may push apart the two parties at the ground level is the reported closeness of NC to the BJP in Jammu region.
Observers believe that on two seats of Jammu, the match fixing has already come to the fore and NC workers may sabotage the alliance mainly because of the proximity of its leaders with the BJP.
They said that the both Jammu and Kashmir Congress are well aware of the dubious policy of NC which would eventually force the Kashmir congress workers to think hundred times before voting for NC candidates for the three seats of the valley.
And if the recent statement of Chief Minister Omar Abdullah about Modi factor in Jammu is any indication, it appears that BJP has bagged the two seats of Jammu region even before the polls, however, the fate of the three Kashmir seats will depend on issues far beyond the Modi phobia because the opposition PDP is firmly riding on the anti-incumbency wave which is being seriously reflected on ground.
With assembly polls slated for October, local issues -- miss -governance, unemployment and corruption are at the top-of-the-mind for the electorate and even exit polls predict the NC will retain only the prestigious Srinagar seat, which has been the turf of the Abdullah family.
While NC leaders are hoping against hope that alliance will contain the PDP, the disillusioned congress workers look at it the other way round.
Moreover, the local congress leadership has been maintaining all along that Mufti Mohammad Sayed and his PDP was not harmful for them. The only hunch is PDP poses a potential threat to senior congress leaders G A Mir and Peerzada Mohammad Sayed who represent Dooru and Kokernag constituencies respectively in the state legislature and as such both of them would prefer to vote for NC candidate. But observers believe that this time the duo may not be able to convince their voters, who are not comfortable with the coalition, to vote for NC.
Anyways the Kashmir Congress seems to be keen on playing the game and as things stand, it will take a miracle for the coalition particularly the NC to repeat the feat of 2009.
On the other hand there have been expectations within BJP that the Modi-rage would enthuse the voters in Jammu region to go for this party and it was with this expectation that the 'Lalkar rally' of Modi was organised. But according to Professor rekha Choudhery, even if Modi-factor works for BJP, it would not lead to the repeat of 2008 performance of this party.
Hence, Congress is going to gain. What works in favour of Congress in Jammu, is that it is seen as a party that would form the government. Hence for many, especially those who are not committed ideologically to the BJP, it is much better a choice to vote for Congress rather than for BJP. However, BJP may be the choice for many during the Loke Sabha election, it may not be so during the state election. With this scenario in Jammu, Congress is quite confident about its prospects in the next assembly election though NC may play s[poil spot for it in the upcoming Loke Sabha election. |
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