Rustam
JAMMU, May 12: Election results in Jammu and Kashmir, like in the rest of the country, will be announced on May 16, but many a political observer have started predicting doom for the ruling National Conference (NC) and suggesting that the outcome of the Lok Sabha elections will be a "harbinger of what will happen in October". The Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir will be held between October and December this year and the new Government will be in place on or before January 5, 2015. Omar Abdullah will complete six years in office on January 4.
Some leading Kashmir-watchers and sympathizers of those who want a lose type of relationship between (Jammu &)Kashmir have opined that the "Kashmiris regard this (Lok Sabha) election as crucial, (as it) is that it is taking place only five months before the elections to the State Assembly". "It is therefore universally seen as a harbinger of what will happen in October," one well-known Kashmir observer said the other day while commenting on the importance of the just-held Lok Sabha elections in the Kashmir valley. The Kashmir-watcher was none other than Prem Shankar Jha, who has his connections at right places in the Kashmir valley or with the informed sections.
He not only said that the outcome of the Lok Sabha elections in Kashmir will be a harbinger of what will happen in October or before December this year, but he also suggested that the NC is out to bite dust and the People's Democratic Party likely to emerge victorious. His opinion was based on inputs from some informed quarters. It would be only appropriate to quote him verbatim: "At present all the cards seem to be stacked against the National Conference, and in favour of the Mufti Sayeed's Peoples' Democratic Party. Although the counting will only take place on May 16, Kashmir is a small Valley riddled with clan and kinship networks. Everyone, therefore, talks to everyone else, so most people have a pretty good idea of which way the wind is blowing. In south Kashmir journalists, intelligence agencies, Army and the separatists are all of the view that Mehbooba Mufti has won. In central Kashmir the results are likely to be close, but most observers believe that former Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah is going to lose. This is because in two Assembly segments, Charar-e-Sharif and Kangan, where the PDP is strong the turnout has increased very sharply, whereas in two segments of Srinagar, where the NC is strong, there has been a substantial drop in the vote. Most analysts have therefore concluded that young voters are turning out for the PDP, while some at least of the NC's cadres are staying away. In North Kashmir, similarly, the betting is in favour of the PDP's senior leader and distinguished lawyer, Muzaffar Beigh".
"Needless to say, the prospect of victory is making the PDP's rank and file cautiously jubilant, but their joy is tempered by a fresh dose of anxiety. For they know better than everyone else that, sensing the danger it faces, Omar Abdullah's National Conference Government has pulled out all the stops in a no-holds-barred effort to swing the vote its way. Shortly before the elections it announced that it was dividing Jammu and Kashmir's 20 districts into 300 administrative sub-units and devolving huge sums upon them for local development. And in South Kashmir, they soon concluded that while the boycott was being enforced by cadres of Yasin Malik's Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front, the funds for the exercise had come from the National Conference. They came to this conclusion because the JKLF's cadres seemed to be enforcing the boycott mainly in Assembly segments where the PDP was known to be strong, such as Anantnag, Pulwama, Tral, Shopian, Rajpora and Wachi".
If one goes by what the serious Kashmir-watchers have started saying, then one can say that the NC is in deep trouble in Jammu and Kashmir, like the Congress that is, reports suggest, destined to suffer a massive and ignominious defeat across the country, including Jammu and Kashmir. The NC is itself responsible for the state of affairs it is in. |
