news details |
|
|
| Will Modi wave last till the Assembly poll in J&K? | | | Early Times Report
Jammu, June 7: If the BJP managed to win three Lok Sabha seats in the regions of Jammu and Ladakh it was the result of Modi wave having made secret entry into these two regions. A recent study on the Lok Sabha poll at the national level has revealed that had not Modi been nominated as BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate the BJP would not have won the election with an absolute majority in the Lok Sabha.
As far as the region of Jammu was concerned it has remained a stronghold for the BJP. But factional feuds followed by expulsion of seven party MLAs on charge of anti-party activities and consequent split had emaciated the party in the region. When the BJP candidates filed their nomination papers one had expected that it would be "we also ran the race" story for the two candidates.
However, the Modi wave is said to have smoothened the road to success for the BJP candidates. And the impact of the wave was that even the BJP backed candidate bagged the Ladakh seat.
The verdict in 2014 has clearly made the BJP a national party with significant presence in almost all parts of the country. The party virtually swept the polls in its traditional strongholds of northern, western and central India. More notably, it made significant advances in many parts of the country that were not the party's traditional bastion.
Without the support of any ally, the BJP won a large chunk of votes in Jammu and Kashmir (36.4 per cent), West Bengal (16.8 per cent), Assam (36.5 per cent), Manipur (11.9 per cent), Arunachal Pradesh (46.1 per cent), and Orissa (21.5 per cent). In Andhra Pradesh (Telangana and Seemandhra) and Tamil Nadu, the BJP has made important inroads with the help of alliance partners.
The BJP's single-handed majority in the Lok Sabha is noteworthy for two reasons. First, no party has achieved this feat after 1984. Second, no party has received more than 30 per cent of the total votes after the 1991 Lok Sabha elections. Since the fragmentation of party system in the 1990s, even a small plurality of votes has been sufficient to obtain large majorities in the number of seats held by a party. For example, in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) won a majority in 2007 with just 30 per cent vote share and the Samajwadi Party (SP) won a majority in 2012 with just 29 per cent of the votes.
A more careful look at the data shows the remarkable nature of the BJP's victory. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP contested only 428 seats. The party won more than 50 per cent votes in 137 seats, and in another 132 seats it won more than 40 per cent votes. This is very unusual and unexpected given India's recent electoral history. The data presented in table 1 indicates how big the BJP's victory was. The average victory margin during the 2009 elections was 9.2 percentage points. In 2014, the average victory margin increased to 15 percentage points largely because many voters turned to the BJP. In many constituencies, the BJP-led NDA's vote share was greater than the vote shares of the first and second runner-ups combined.
The victory of the BJP candidates in the regions of Jammu and Ladakh has been the result of the Modi wave. This has raised a million dollar question. Will the Modi wave continue to grip Jammu and Ladakh regions during the ensuing Assembly election ?Even the staunch supporters of the BJP and Modi agree that the sustenance of Modi wave in the region of Jammu and elsewhere will depend on the policies that would be implemented by the BJP led NDA Government.
It has been usually seen that a wave in support of a party or a leader during the Lok Sabha election does not necessarily last till the Assembly election. No doubt the BJP has sent three representatives from Jammu and Ladakh to the Lok Sabha for the first time. And the party leaders in Jammu and Kashmir are seen reveling on this performance. No attempt is being made to keep the party cadre intact and strengthen its vote bank.
The state unit of the BJP reflects lack of unity. It lacks coordination among senior leaders. The party does not have a charismatic leader like the NC has in Farooq Abdullah and the PDP has in Mufti Sayeed. After Prof. Chaman Lal Gupta was expelled the BJP has not been able to project a senior and seasoned leader to fill the gap created by Prof. Gupta's expulsion from the party.
Yes, the BJP cannot feel elated over the way the Congress was losing its ground in Jammu and Kashmir. It is so because the Congress supporters, who feel disenchanted with the party leadership, may not vote for the BJP but may opt for the PDP during the Assembly poll. This way the party high command in general and Narendra Modi in particular need to infuse vigour in the state unit of the BJP. The party High Command need not believe in the state unit of the party hoping to form the Government in Jammu and Kashmir on its own. The BJP has inherent problem in sharing power with any mainstream party in Jammu and Kashmir. It cannot join hands with the Congress for Government making. For the NC and the PDP the BJP is as good as an untouchable entity. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
| |
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
