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| As BJP flexes muscles, PDP-Congress working on permutations of Govt formation in J&K | | | Bashir Assad
Srinagar, Oct 24: Leaders of People's Democratic Party (PDP) are preempting a good showing in the forthcoming elections in the state, and are hopeful of forming the new government, but they are working at possible permutations to form the government if the party failed to reach the magical figure of 44 in the 87 member J&K Assembly.
PDP leadership has all along been ruling out any post-poll alliance with BJP. The only option left with the party in such a scenario is to bank upon the numbers that the Congress can add to their tally.
BJP is confident about sweeping the mandate in Hindu-dominated areas of Jammu, Kathua, Samba and Udhampur. Political analysts in the state believe that BJP's sweep in Haryana and Maharashtra will further impact the electorate of the greater Jammu region. This will dent the Congress support in the region even more than was expected earlier.
BJP's fantastic performance in the states which recently went to polls has led to concern in both the PDP and Congress camps. Taking into account the regional and demographic complexities of Jammu and Kashmir, it is not advisable for PDP to bank on the Muslim vote alone to ride to power. PDP insiders say that party patron Mufti Mohammed Sayed wants Congress stalwart Ghulam Nabi Azad to concentrate on Hindu-dominated areas of Jammu, instead of focusing on Chenab valley and the Poonch-Rajouri areas. Core members of PDP admit that for the formation of a stable and credible government, representation of Hindu Jammu in government formation is indispensible.
A few weeks ago, senior PDP leader and MP Muzaffer Husain Baigh had said that even if their party sweeps the polls in Kashmir and bags all the 45 seats from here, it will be difficult for the party to form the government without the support of Jammu region. The catch here is that PDP does not have a strong presence in Jammu region. It can bank only on a strong Congress support here to add to its total tally.
The low morale of the Congress leaders of Jammu region is the talk of political circles in the state. However, political observers say that the weakened Congress can look at the possibility of having a role in government formation only if it is able to reach the double figure.
This will give the Congress the plank to be in a talking position with PDP for a post-poll alliance, even though it will play second fiddle to the regional party.
In this context, what Mufti Mohammed Sayed has suggested assumes significance. Political analysts admit that if Ghulam Nabi Azad choses to focus on Muslim-dominated areas like Poonch, Rajouri and Doda, it may not yield the required dividends for the party. These are Muslim-dominated areas, and a split vote will help neither the Congress, nor the PDP. A wiser option for Azad will be to strengthen the presence of the PDP candidates in Kashmir region, where the Congress has a traditional vote bank in some pockets. PDP can do the same for Congress candidates in the greater Jammu region which are Hindu-dominated areas. If the PDP-Congress combine is able to pull away votes from the BJP in Jammu and adjoining areas, this will be a win-win situation for both parties.
In about seven Assembly segments in Jammu, Samba and Kathua, PDP has fielded candidates with sizable personal influence. Congress can benefit from the support of these candidates to keep the BJP at bay.
As far as the electoral battle in Poonch, Rajouri and the Doda region is concerned, PDP and Congress should look for a workable give-and-take solution. Some political analysts have suggested that Congress should withdraw its candidature in support of PDP in Bandipora, Shangus, Sopore, Tral, Sangrama, Gurez and Karnah Assembly segments in Kashmir valley. In turn, Congress can look for PDP support in Banihal, Baderwah, Surankote, Doda, Reasi and Gool Gulabgarh.
Analysts suggested that this kind of arrangement will ensure the victory of both PDP and Congress in these constituencies. And a credible representative government can be formed. Sources said that both Mufti and Azad have realized this thing. However, the bottlenecks are many and it is not that easy for both the leaders to sell the 'give and take' mechanism to its cadres on ground. Azad according to sources had a detailed meeting with a PDP leader recently at latter's residence at Airport colony. The PDP leader is known for being power broker and it is believed the leaders discussed the present political scenario in detail. Many congress leaders from jammu region have already hinted at a future alliance with PDP and if the sources were to be believed these congress leaders are in touch with PDP leadership. |
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