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| Omar wants Ragda-2014 to sweep polls | | Geelani's release seems to be part of electoral strategy to ensure boycott and use bogus voters | | Early Times Report
Srinagar, Oct 31: Hardcore separatist leader Syed Ali Shah Geelani has got the freedom from his house arrest on a platter. Many may perceive it as the magnanimity of the National Conference government and Chief Minister Omar Abdullah but the way mainstream politicians like Ali Mohammad Sagar have suddenly begun to extol the Jamaat-e-Islami ideologue as a "leader" has stunned observers from Srinagar to New Delhi.
Sagar could have been the last man in NC to recognize Geelani as the "Kashmiris' leader". Until yesterday the same Tumbakhnari maestro had been dismissing Geelani as the creation of Kashmir's gun culture whose base was limited to only the Jamaat's radical section. Now he is beating his drum for the man who, all said and done, has been archived to history by the common Kashmiris after the phenomenal failure of the Valley's street agitation in 2010.
What has forced Sagar to stoop to his estranged party colleague and Rajya Sabha member Ghulam Nabi Rattanpuri's level in appeasing Geelani is a bit hard to fathom. Some in Srinagar would like to appreciate his statement to eulogise Geelani as the senior NC leader's admission of his party's death in the valley.
Significantly, Sagar has been continuously defeating his rivals in all Assembly elections since 1983 when he contested the first from erstwhile Zainakadal segment. Even after the legendary Sheikh Abdullah's death in 1982, Sagar routed his rivals. The Jamaat-e-Islami candidate, fielded against him by Geelani, could not get even 2% of the vote polled by Sagar.
Things have been though different for Sagar after 1990. He was among the first batch of the NC's escapists who published apologies for being their nation's "traitors" and fled to Jammu in the dead of the night. He has been the incidental beneficiary of Hurriyat's boycott call since the Assembly elections of 1996, managing just a couple of thousand votes and getting himself inducted as a Minister.
In other words, Sagar should remain indebted to Hurriyat Chairman Mirwaiz Umar Farooq whose boycott call keeps the genuine voters indoors and the musclemen's mobile voters free to install anybody as their leader, MLA and Minister. This time around, it may not be simply out of the sense of gratitude that Sagar has begun to see the credentials of a leader in Geelani.
As of now, inspite of Afzal Guru's hanging in Tihar Jail and the few spectacular militant strikes in Kashmir and Jammu, there is unanimity over the prospects of an extremely high voter turnout. Like many in the NC, Omar as well as Sagar could perceive well the dangers of a polling which has over 30% turnout. Arithmetically, the incumbent MLA needs just one or two thousand votes to retain his seat. Since the NC continues to have total disconnect with the youth of below 35 years of age, who constitute over 65% of today's population, any high turnout polling for it could come as the final death knell.
Chief Minister has been reportedly on the lookout for a "safe" constituency as his repeat victory from Ganderbal is nobody's wild dream in the valley today. Even after the 1984-regime Minister Sheikh Jabbar's son Ashfaq, a former Police Inspector, has been waylaid by Omar, NC's internal disharmony and ego war between Yousuf Bhat, Ghulam Ahmad Saloora and MLC Sheikh Ghulam Rasool are enough to bring out a defeat for the NC candidate. Level of desperation is perhaps evident from the fact that Omar drove straight to the retired officer and former Information Director Farooq Reenzushah's home to request him not to join Congress.
However, as a public snub to the Chief Minister and his colleagues, Devender Singh Rana etcetera, Reenzushah stuck to his gun and persisted with his passion of joining the Congress. NC's insiders say that Omar had an eye on Sonwar constituency as he knows how to manipulate the result in his favour. His father Farooq Abdullah had won from Sonwar only after reaching an agreement with the rival candidate that he would be inducted as MLC if he did not object to 200 votes from Fakeer Gujri Harwan to have been arranged by the Gujjar leader Mian Altaf.
In the given situation, when NC does not have even candidates in many of its traditional segments in Kashmir, the best panacea would be to set the most influential of the separatist leaders free to carry out his anti-election campaign. NC could comfortably provide all of its tacit, read technical, support to its bete noire. It would wish him to take the people by storm from Sopore to Afzal Guru's village Doabgah with the loud slogans of "Jeevay Jeevay Pakistan" and "Go India Go back". Once done, it would lead to Ragda-2014 and pave the way for the low turnout Assembly and Lok Sabha election. The incumbent has got to be the winner and the Head of the Government for the next six years. So, why not set Geelani Sahab free?.
Massarat Aalam Bhat and Dr Qasim Faktoo should see the first ray of hope with Geelani's Sopore rally on Friday. |
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