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| 25 percent swing in votes; BJP confident, not coalition, Azad holds edge | | Doda, Reasi, Gulabgarh, Kathua, Hiranagar voted heavily | |  Syed Junaid Hashmi
JAMMU, Apr 18: Riding high on Modi wave, BJP has effectively managed to put up spirited show on Doda-Udhampur parliamentary constituency but the advantage still rests not with NC-Congress coalition but with ex-Chief Minister and Union Health Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad in person.
Though BJP sources strongly disagree and maintain that victory is there and they are way ahead of Congress. They talk of winning by a margin of 1 to 1.50 lakh. Their confidence of being victorious springs from their self-confirmed belief that increase in voting percentage is merely because of Modi wave and people have voted in huge number in their favour.
Despite having wide acceptability in Jammu region, BJP sources maintain that people have voted for them and left Ghulam Nabi Azad way behind 'diabetician turned politician Dr. Jatinder Singh. BJP candidate is also brother of NC's provincial president Devinder Singh Rana. On the contrary, Congress while accepting that there is Modi wave maintains that Azad would snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
Weighing statements of both Congress and BJP on the arithmetic scale, political observers maintain that BJP's vote share would be surprising but Ghulam Nabi Azad is likely to retain the seat for Congress from Doda-Udhampur, merely on the strength of his connect with the people of this constituency. They do give some credit to Azad loyalists in erstwhile District Doda and some parts of Reasi and Kathua for having ensured high voting percentage.
They further opine that BJP would have given nightmares to Azad, if they would have fielded Dr.Nirmal Singh in place of Dr. Jatinder Singh. Analysing the increase in vote share, the political pundits which includes senior journalists without going into which party would emerge victorious maintain that victory margin of the winning candidate would not be above 20 to 30 thousand. They do see Modi wave a major factor in Ramban, Kathua, Reasi and Udhampur districts.
Analysts further point towards massive vote swing in all the assembly segments of Doda-Kathua-Udhampur Lok Sabha seat and state that it is not merely because of Modi wave but it also has to do a lot with Ghulam Nabi Azad being the candidate and his loyalists going extra mile to assure that the wave does not sweep him out of the contest. They opine that BJP has for sure benefitted from Modi wave but the loyalists of Azad too have managed to get higher number of voters on each polling station.
To substantiate this argument, they point out that Doda has shown a jump of 33749 votes from 24096 in 2009 to 57845 in 2014. In Bhaderwah, which is home town of Azad, 53075 votes were cast in 2009 and in the elections held on Thursday, votes polled have gone up to 70, 551. This is jump of 17, 476 votes. Though the increase is incomparable to Doda but it is significant.
Though riot hit Kishtwar was also expected to see huge jump in vote percentage but just 16618 votes have increased from what it was in 2009. Inderwal, which is a Congress bastion, too has seen an increase of 25667 from what it was in 2009. Total votes polled have increased in Ramban and Banihal, which are both represented by Congress and have had NC representation in past besides having sizeable presence of BJP workers by 29342 and 14478 respectively from 2009.
Gulabgarh which is essentially an NC bastion and is represented by ex-Higher Education Minister Abdul Gani Malik in assembly has shown an increase of 29522 votes. Gool-Arnas which is a Congress stronghold has shown increase of around 21351 votes while Reasi assembly segment which is currently being represented by BJP and has presence of both NC and Congress leaders has shown a massive surge in votes. 45618 votes have been polled higher then what it was in 2009.
This is far higher than double the number of votes polled in 2009. Popular belief is that in Reasi, BJP is holding the forte.
Similar is the trend in Udhampur, Ramnagar and Chennai assembly segments where compared to 2009; 22461, 31947 and 28363 higher votes have been polled. If the political observers are to be believed, Udhampur has heavily voted for BJP while Ramnagar and Chenani have voted for Congress, BJP and JKNPP. In Kathua district, Kathua assembly segment has polled 27, 192 votes higher than 2009.
Kathua has traditionally remained a BJP stronghold and has always given it lead over Congress. The trend is likely to be reversed with little or no change. In Bani assembly segment which is represented by BJP MLA, voters have increased the number by 9503 from what it was in 2009. This is believed to be equally poised between BJP and Congress.
In Basholi where ex-MP Choudhary Lal Singh holds sway, the votes polled have gone up by 11,311. Benefit according to political observers is likely to be heavily in favour of BJP. Hiranagar which is again a BJP bastion has shown an upward surge of 25751 votes from 2009 Lok Sabha elections. Billawar which is regarded as Congress bastion and which has voted for BJP in all the Lok Sabha elections too has shown an increase of around 22138 votes. Here again, the advantage according to political observers rest with Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). |
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