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| Has Omar Abdullah reconciled to bow out after 2014 elections? | | | Early Times Report
JAMMU, Nov 12: The reported decision by State Chief Minister Omar Abdullah to contest the Lok Sabha elections from Srinagar-Budgam constituency in 2014 is likely to act as a dampener on NC's power prospects in Jammu and Kashmir.
Likely to complete his six year term as the CM, Omar Abdullah appears to have decided to move down to New Delhi presumably with the hope that the present NC-Congress alliance would again come to power in the State with the Congress staking its claim to the CM's post. As per the terms of the alliance between the NC and the Congress, Omar Abdullah was given a full term after the Congress high command was convinced by senior Congress leader and former CM, Ghulam Nabi Azad about conceding the full six year term to Omar Abdullah.
Azad had been prompted to favour Omar Abdullah because he did not want to leave any doubt in the mind of the NC leadership about the bonafides of the Congress decision to align with the NC. After 2002 elections the Congress had formed a coalition Government with the PDP and Azad as per sources close to him, had been deeply hurt by the PDP's decision to withdraw from the coalition in the wake of the 2008 Shri Amarnathji Shrine land row agitation.
Insiders argue it would be natural for the NC to return Azad's favour by allowing him to ascend to the CM's post after 2014 Assembly elections in case the two parties have the numbers to form the Government on their own. In case the NC-Congress alliance in 2014 does not reach the magic number even with the support of some other MLAs, it would still be a safe bet for Omar Abdullah to look for a bigger role in national politics rather than cool his heels out of the CM's chair.
Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi has already hinted at an alliance between the two parties for the 2014 elections in the State. As Narendra Modi continues to hog limelight in many states of the country, the Congress plan-B is to ensure that the BJP somehow remains out of power by supporting some sort of a third front whose contours are yet to be fully defined. Insiders in the Congress accept that the party's high command is already reconciled to the fact that the party would not form the next Government at the Centre. And yet, the Congress believes it would play the role of a King maker by trying to support the third front and keep the BJP out of power at the Centre.
In case the Congress is forced to implement its plan-B, its dependence on regional parties like the NC would become crucial after the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Rahul Gandhi's veiled reference to future alliance with the NC has been necessitated because of this compulsion. The Congress seriously believes its role in forming the next State Government after the assembly elections in J&K in 2014 is a foregone conclusion.
In background of these facts, Dr. Farooq Abdullah is likely to fight the assembly elections to keep the rank and file of his party intact while Omar Abdullah moves down to New Delhi.
How far would Modi's magic work to contain the Congress in the Jammu region would ultimately decide as to who forms the next Government in J&K. As of now, Omar Abdullah is believed to have decided to favour his Congress allies for the hot seat in the State while Azad as per sources close to him is eyeing the CM's post if his party is eased out of power at the Centre. |
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